Texas Winter 2020-2021

[rwfromkansas]

My most memorable winter period was December 2000 in Kansas. Got a little bit of snow, then a big snow, then it was so frigid it didn't melt for weeks, which was incredibly rare. Normally there it would melt in a few days as well. A lot of the same issues we faced here I faced growing up, as big cold usually dried us out etc. There were more exceptions where we could get some dry snow with high ratios, but it was rare. It made for a magical month actually having snow on the ground most of the time.

I was getting concerned when nobody was posting model runs, so glad to see it. Probably one of these OK storms will trend our way eventually.

[Iceresistance]

My most memorable winter period was December 2000 in Kansas. Got a little bit of snow, then a big snow, then it was so frigid it didn't melt for weeks, which was incredibly rare. Normally there it would melt in a few days as well. A lot of the same issues we faced here I faced growing up, as big cold usually dried us out etc. There were more exceptions where we could get some dry snow with high ratios, but it was rare. It made for a magical month actually having snow on the ground most of the time.

I was getting concerned when nobody was posting model runs, so glad to see it. Probably one of these OK storms will trend our way eventually.

The 18z & 0z runs had nothing, but the 6z run really got my attention

Highly depends on the storms tracks, there are 3 options for snow to come in, all in a one month.

All it takes for Storm #1 & 2 to be a winter storm for you is to be on the northern end of the moisture, then it might snow. Storm #3 is too far north, but it's VERY far out & will change.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

https://media1.tenor.com/images/5ba33a52f20d049d2ff5e70465e5650a/tenor.gif?itemid=9858730

No joke on the Wind Alerts!

Observations from the NWS-Norman area

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauleys latest is quite depressing.

[Brent]

As I was leaving Tulsa this afternoon I saw about 5 minutes of flurries

3 times this winter not at home

[cheezyWXguy]

Man it’s dead here. Still think that storm around 228hr on the gfs is worth watching, as the 500mb ridge over Texas at that time seems to be trending weaker and further south. Maybe the storm will trend further south too.

[bubba hotep]

[cheezyWXguy]

Hooray, finally something on the 12z gfs. We can just ignore that is 348hrs away

[Texas Snow]

Hooray, finally something on the 12z gfs. We can just ignore that is 348hrs away

348 is the new 72

[txtwister78]

Euro ENS has TX locked in to a warmer than normal temp pattern in the longer term. -PNA is the big factor overall. The EPO actually does go negative for a week, but due to the -PNA most of the cold air that does enter the US will be blocked from coming too far south. We need to root for the PNA to go back to neutral or positive in order for us to get back to a wintry pattern. Right now doesn't look likely thru the end of the month.

What does look more likely is some good rain entering the forecast for the state next week. We definitely could use it across a good portion of the state.

[Iceresistance]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1610798400/1611662400-vZnNb5qlLQY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1610798400/1612094400-GkQyqHxVD7w.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1610820000/1611360000-q388M1tBnnU.png

Euro ENS has TX locked in to a warmer than normal temp pattern in the longer term. -PNA is the big factor overall. The EPO actually does go negative for a week, but due to the -PNA most of the cold air that does enter the US will be blocked from coming too far south. We need to root for the PNA to go back to neutral or positive in order for us to get back to a wintry pattern. Right now doesn't look likely thru the end of the month.

What does look more likely is some good rain entering the forecast for the state next week. We definitely could use it across a good portion of the state.

If there can't be snow, I'll take any rain needed to keep away the drought from coming to the eastern side of the Southern Plains

[TheProfessor]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1610798400/1611662400-vZnNb5qlLQY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1610798400/1612094400-GkQyqHxVD7w.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1610820000/1611360000-q388M1tBnnU.png

Euro ENS has TX locked in to a warmer than normal temp pattern in the longer term. -PNA is the big factor overall. The EPO actually does go negative for a week, but due to the -PNA most of the cold air that does enter the US will be blocked from coming too far south. We need to root for the PNA to go back to neutral or positive in order for us to get back to a wintry pattern. Right now doesn't look likely thru the end of the month.

What does look more likely is some good rain entering the forecast for the state next week. We definitely could use it across a good portion of the state.

If there can't be snow, I'll take any rain needed to keep away the drought from coming to the eastern side of the Southern Plains

Speaking of drought. This was brought to my attention by a brilliant grad student that I know on another site, but where the current drought in the Southwest expands will be critical to determining where a possible large tornado outbreak could occur this Spring. It is likely that the drought will influence EMLs, possibly pushing stronger EMLs further east due to the dryline either setting up further east or just progressing eastward more easily due to dry land. Where the boundary of the drought is is important to DFW and east Texas and Dixie Alley. In 2011 DFW and east Texas ended up on the western edge of the Super Outbreak. One thing that's different this year than 2011 is that in 2011 east Texas got the worst of the drought early on, whereas right now it's mostly confined to west Texas. Now CPC does expect much of the Southern Plains to be in drought this year, but if stays just abnormally dry instead of being a severe drought, that could influence how far east EMLs get. To put it plainly, if the drought is focused further west this year, but EMLs are occurring further east than average with an active tornado season to go with it, then we could see the hard hit areas shift west from 2011, focusing on east Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi instead of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. It wouldn't surprise if DFW saw a lot more dry line action this year, which does mean you might not get anything, but we also know that drylines produce some of the most dangerous supercells and tornadoes we've seen. EMLs poking into Louisiana and Mississippi also mean trouble because it limits the junk convection that often causes busts in Dixie Alley (I should probably throw Arkansas in the list of these states as well). Further east where EMLs may not quite reach, that junk convection still exists so outbreaks are quite as widespread as what we saw in 2011.

I should point out that I'm not saying there's going to be an outbreak that rivals 2011 this spring, but let's be real, even an outbreak half as bad as that would be seriously bad. Unless we get put into full on winter mode nation wide, there will probably be at least 1 bad outbreak this year.

[Portastorm]

Don’t know how many of y’all subscribe to Larry Cosgrove’s newsletter but his latest edition builds (what seems to me at least) a solid case for a big pattern change at the end of the month. Much colder and stormier pattern for east of the Rockies.

[orangeblood]

Don’t know how many of y’all subscribe to Larry Cosgrove’s newsletter but his latest edition builds (what seems to me at least) a solid case for a big pattern change at the end of the month. Much colder and stormier pattern for east of the Rockies.

I’m not a subscriber but the Ensembles don’t look like they’re giving that indication...this is an incredibly ugly chart for the start to February. Cold will be bottled up in Alaska/NW Canada if this chart is even close to reality. Just no indication of a mechanism to push cold south across the southern US attm

[Portastorm]

Well, to be fair to Mr. Cosgrove, he said the “start” of a pattern change would begin in early February.

[bubba hotep]

Don’t know how many of y’all subscribe to Larry Cosgrove’s newsletter but his latest edition builds (what seems to me at least) a solid case for a big pattern change at the end of the month. Much colder and stormier pattern for east of the Rockies.

I’m not a subscriber but the Ensembles don’t look like they’re giving that indication...this is an incredibly ugly chart for the start to February. Cold will be bottled up in Alaska/NW Canada if this chart is even close to reality. Just no indication of a mechanism to push cold south across the southern US attm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011706/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

Also, the emerging MJO favors a wet/warm pattern across Texas. In the longer range, the Euro Weeklies show the -AO/NAO combo fading positive with a -PNA. Probably plenty of rain chances with the occasional shot of EPO driven cold. Now this doesn't exactly match up with the SSW lag anomalies, which tend to favor delayed cold for NA showing up in in the 30 - 45 day range. The problem with that is that the data set is so small...

ETA: Not too long ago, a week or so, I was pretty pumped about the last 2/3 of Feb into March pattern but things are not evolving in the way I had expected. Maybe models shift in our favor over the next week or so? That is the problem with trying to pin things down out beyond Week 2.

[orangeblood]

With temps in the NorthEast Pacific cooling down like they have over the past few months, Going to be very difficult to get any sustained Ridge popping into Alaska (Negative EPO). It's Highly likely that Gulf of Alaska Lows will begin setting up shop in the NE Pacific, potentially flooding the lower 48 with Pacific air/keeping Arctic Air bottled up on Canada/Northern 1/2 of US...IMO, not looking good my friends.

Ocean temp change over past 2 months

[TheProfessor]

With temps in the NorthEast Pacific cooling down like they have over the past few months, Going to be very difficult to get any sustained Ridge popping into Alaska (Negative EPO). It's Highly likely that Gulf of Alaska Lows will begin setting up shop in the NE Pacific, potentially flooding the lower 48 with Pacific air/keeping Arctic Air bottled up on Canada/Northern 1/2 of US...IMO, not looking good my friends.

Ocean temp change over past 2 months
https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_BuyxqqO_ru.gif

This is expected for La Nina, if we had a full blow +PDO during a moderate to strong La Nina that would honestly be more concerning, even if it benefitted Texas.

[orangeblood]

Well any hope of a moderate Negative EPO is dwindling daily.... could've been an amazing pattern paired with that Greenland ridge