Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1604337703524474880?s=46&t=UPkkisjRbTQbM1x2TDXe-g

Temps were colder in 1989 with possibly less snow cover than right now and the HP the models are showing now will be stronger than the one from 1989. Something doesn’t add up to me. Seems like it would be quite a bit colder than what the models are currently indicating.

[rwfromkansas]

Impressive changes. We do have something more than cold to legit watch now, which is good.

[Quixotic]

So, here’s my take. We got a big HP pushing down. It won’t stop.

..:::…..however, if we have a low off to the SW which happens quite a bit, even on the coldest of fronts, it might pay off. Looking at the models and I’d say that there’s not a great deal of coherence yet. If we have an arctic airmass, plus an ULL or sw rounding out the base, then there’s hope. Ideally we want a big HP with either a sw flow holding it up for an overrunning situation or a big ULL low sending disturbances through. I’m not completely sold on either but I wouldn’t be shocked if either played out.

Don’t want to see suppression but it’s looking less likely as the storm is projected to Oklahoma north.

[Quixotic]

Unlikely, but the surprise accumulating snow is not off the table yet.

Based on the 12/18z super ensemble blend, I would put it about 20% DFW sees 0.5-1" of snow. Obviously, that increases as you move north and east.

I’d take whatever I get, hombre. I got lakes to the north and west so I’m guessing I’ll be lucky.

Truth be told, I like Christmas cold. Snow or not.

[txtwister78]

Something else to keep an eye on next week along with the dangerous wind chill threat that goes along with it is the wind threat.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1604329691338477573

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/chase_benton1/status/1604330159859011584

[Ntxw]

Lets not forget where we were last week to now. Where the cold is going compared to forecast. Not the duration but peak.

[rwfromkansas]

Heck, a few days ago we basically went with at least it will be a bit chillier at Christmas.

[Brent]

Heck, a few days ago we basically went with at least it will be a bit chillier at Christmas.

Yeah and a few days ago I wasn't even getting snow... Now we're talking about DFW maybe... Heck we still got 4 days nothing says it can't shift more south

[UTSARoadrunner4]

DFW in on the snow 0z GFS. 5h didn't really change much.

Looks like better timing with the vort max rounding the base, and there were some significant upper level changes with the jet.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022121800/141/snku_acc.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022121800/132/sfct.us_sc.png

I know it’s a crap shoot, but I would love for that snow to come down IH-35 by about 350 miles. In the mean time, I guess I’ll get ready for dry cold

[Brent]

The Euro is a little better for snow up here but the main story continues to be the front... I mean you don't see these every winter and this is the usually conservative Euro

[txwxwatcher]

The Euro is a little better for snow up here but the main story continues to be the front... I mean you don't see these every winter and this is the usually conservative Euro

https://i.ibb.co/3ffZSBM/sfct-us-sc.png

Those temps are too warm, at least for parts of the map. For example, it shows 2m temps in Houston at 68 F, yet forecasted highs for Thursday in the city are currently at 54 F.

[Cpv17]

The Euro is a little better for snow up here but the main story continues to be the front... I mean you don't see these every winter and this is the usually conservative Euro

https://i.ibb.co/3ffZSBM/sfct-us-sc.png

Those temps are too warm, at least for parts of the map. For example, it shows 2m temps in Houston at 68 F, yet forecasted highs for Thursday in the city are currently at 54 F.

Yeah the Euro has been doing that with this front for whatever reason.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS has retreated the snow a little further north than 0z (I saw that run, it was wild!). There is still room for changes now we're 4 days out before this comes.

[Ralph's Weather]

Significantly colder this morning than forecasted with average temp around here being mid 20s with some low 20s scattered around.

[Dustybottums33]

How long do you guys think the cold is going to stick around the DFW area? Looking at NWS page, Christmas day is back up in the 40's for highs.

[WinterMax]

How long do you guys think the cold is going to stick around the DFW area? Looking at NWS page, Christmas day is back up in the 40's for highs.

Arctic air is often underestimated, it could be 5-10 degrees colder than currently forecasted, for now a high of 41 on Christmas Day could possibly be 31 instead. With snow cover all the way down to Dallas by Friday morning, that would slow warming considerably. Way too early to determine at this time.

[opticsguy]

Significantly colder thisorning than forecasted with average temp around here being mid 20s with some low 20s scattered around.

At holly lake ranch. 24F an hour ago

[orangeblood]

Much stronger snow signal on latest GEFS for North Texas. Also, keep in mind these are 10:1 ratio outputs, expect much higher ratios during a potential event like this