Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

12z UKMET into Tampa Bay...12z Euro running

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro develops surface low in the western Gulf moving along the northern Gulf with widespread snow for the SE.

[Brent]

Wow.



It don't get better than that in these parts.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Ivanhater, I just looked at the latest 12z Euro and that is what I am thinking will probably happen. Also, the dynamics with the developing surface low pressure look impressive as well which should open up the GOM really good to send abundant moisture throughout the SE region and Gulf Coast. Strong cold air advection is going to rush in fairly quickly behind this storm as well. Therefore, should the Euro run verify, the potential would be very probable for a white Christmas for many across northern sections of MS, AL, GA, spreading into the Carolinas. Definitely could be the winter storm of the season potentially as this will potentially bomb once it reaches off the East Coast by late this weekend.

[Ivanhater]

The 12z Euro is a once in a lifetime snowstorm for the South...just wow.

If this bombs just right, dare I say '93 superstorm...Could get some nice snow for P'cola! Long shot but the Euro is not far off!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Ivanhater you are right. This scenario does look similar to the March '93 superstorm in terms of the dynamics.

If this comes even close to verifying, snowfall amounts across areas of the Deep South will be rather impressive, maybe even approaching historic marks possibly.

This is definitely an interesting event possibly unfolding this holiday weekend for sure.
.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, Ivanhater you are right. This scenario does look similar to the March '93 superstorm in terms of the dynamics.

If this comes even close to verifying, snowfall amounts across areas of the Deep South will be rather impressive, maybe even approaching historic marks possibly.

This is definitely an interesting event possibly unfolding this holiday weekend for sure.
.

When we have 4 runs of the Euro in our camp I'm happy. The 12z Euro leaves the Southeast buried on Christmas day. Who would have thought a historic snow storm on Christmas could happen in a strong La Nina winter? I'm speechless

[Ntxw]

Wow truly impressive. One thing that needs to be corrected is that this wouldn't be a Christmas day event, we got timing a little off but the following day. If it moves a little quicker then the bombing off the southeast coast could be Saturday evening for the eastern parts of the southeast. Lets hope the phasing occurs with the northern stream perfectly! Otherwise it would be a mess...

[PTPatrick]

Can anyone post the actual links that show Euro Snow accums? I looked at CMC and it doesnt look epic for Mississippi or Alabama, maybe flurries unless I am reading wrong. North goerge and western south carolina would get some good snow though. What is ECWM actually showing in norht MS,AL?

[Ntxw]

Can anyone post the actual links that show Euro Snow accums? I looked at CMC and it doesnt look epic for Mississippi or Alabama, maybe flurries unless I am reading wrong. North goerge and western south carolina would get some good snow though. What is ECWM actually showing in norht MS,AL?

Accuwx 12z ECMWF snow amount has a swath in northern Alabama/Georgia/SC to the mid-atlantic. Maybe up to .5 qpf from northeastern GA, northern SC, and NC.

If I were to interpret directly from the EC 2-4 from ATL to GSP, 3-6 in NC piedmont. And you were right about MS/AL not much.

[Ivanhater]

HPC buying into the Euro

[northjaxpro]

HPC initializing a 992 mb Low right over Cape Hatteras on 12Z Sunday morning 12/26.

Impressive indeed. Actually, it could even be stronger than that possibly. This looks like a major blizzard set-up for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for the Sunday-Monday timeframe.

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM agrees with the Euro...Low forming in the Western Gulf

[Ivanhater]

Stole this from Ntxw from the other thread. Indeed, there is our possible Christmas storm for the South approaching Southern California.

[Ivanhater]

If this low can bomb in the Gulf, I hope the Satellite will look like the '93 Super storm. Long shot but it could happen

[Ivanhater]

BMX

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A BIG TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SOUTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. BOTH FAVOR A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW
ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT SNOW LINE WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE PRECIPITATION BASED ON ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WILL
SHOW CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A RAIN-SNOW
MIXTURE SOUTH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN FLURRIES. BASED TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. A
SLOW WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

[Ntxw]

Lost in all this Christmas storm mayhem is the cold snap that will keep hold in the deep south. Though indications do not show as cold as the last snap, however the duration of this could go very well to the new years. BRR.

This weekend's storm may not be the last threat of winter this year.

[Ivanhater]

Lost in all this Christmas storm mayhem is the cold snap that will keep hold in the deep south. Though indications do not show as cold as the last snap, however the duration of this could go very well to the new years. BRR.

This weekend's storm may not be the last threat of winter this year.

I like the way your talking Ntxw

Honestly, any little glimmer of winter wx in this La Nina year is a blessing.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm beginning to buy into the ECMWF solution, all the dynamics are there for a good snowstorm for the SE and much of the east coast.

[northjaxpro]

Lost in all this Christmas storm mayhem is the cold snap that will keep hold in the deep south. Though indications do not show as cold as the last snap, however the duration of this could go very well to the new years. BRR.

This weekend's storm may not be the last threat of winter this year.

Even though we are in a moderate La Nina, the negative NAO continues to hold firm. The persistent Omega Block over Greenland looks to remain locked in place right into the start of January. This means that we will continue to see surges of arctic air masses from the polar regions come southbound deep into the Eastern CONUS. As a matter of fact, the long range GFS extending out to the first week of January is showing a possible arctic blast which could be as cold or even colder than the outbreak we had in Florida and the Deep South last week.

But, for now, the focus must be on this potential major storm this weekend. Folks, this storm just may be the whopper of this season, which we have discussed in depth to this point.