Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

You (wxman57) better hope The Winter That Wasn't continues after all of this warm-weather taunting, that's all I can say.

If/when things change, we're gonna do a snow/ice dance on your head!

Go for it, I can take it! Meanwhile, I'm contemplating the chance of us (Houston IAH) reaching 90 degrees in February. Have to put in a max for the month in our forecast contest. Hmmm...

[hriverajr]

:uarrow:

You (wxman57) better hope The Winter That Wasn't continues after all of this warm-weather taunting, that's all I can say.

If/when things change, we're gonna do a snow/ice dance on your head!

And it shall be well deserved!

[wxman57]

I actually need ONE cold day before February to win our January forecast contest. Currently, I have a "coolest high" of 44F predicted for this month. So far, IAH only got down to 55F for the coolest high. That's killing me in the contest (3rd place). I had a warmest of 78 (so far that's perfect) and a low of 30 (again, perfect), and a warmest low of 66 (64 so far, but tomorrow may be 66 for the low). So, OK, I'll agree to a single cold, rainy day with a high of only 44. I will even accept a single day with sleet/snow if the high at midnight was 44F. Oh, and I need for IAH to get over 3" of rain this month, as I win with 3.01 to 3.70" total for the month.

Models are hinting at what could be some significant snow in the Plains next week. Big question is Northern or Central Plains? GFS says Northern Plains to Minnesota. Euro is shifting north.

That'll be me this Fri-Sun on my mountain bike (shorts/short-sleeves)

[Rgv20]

Go for it, I can take it! Meanwhile, I'm contemplating the chance of us (Houston IAH) reaching 90 degrees in February. Have to put in a max for the month in our forecast contest. Hmmm...

Ahh 90 degree weather...in my part of the world its almost a guaranteed we are going to hit 90F in February at least once.

In fact we are currently sitting at 83F in mid January!! Take that wxman57!

[wxman57]

Go for it, I can take it! Meanwhile, I'm contemplating the chance of us (Houston IAH) reaching 90 degrees in February. Have to put in a max for the month in our forecast contest. Hmmm...

Ahh 90 degree weather...in my part of the world its almost a guaranteed we are going to hit 90F in February at least once.

In fact we are currently sitting at 83F in mid January!! Take that wxman57!

Like I said, 78 was my forecast for the max at IAH for January, which we already hit. Don't want to see 83 this month or I can't win the contest. I know, it goes against all I stand for (warmth), but I want to win the contest.

[Big O]

JB tweets:

"GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term"

We shall see.

[Ntxw]

That storm on 25th+- a day (next week) is trending stronger on the models. Whether it pulls arctic air down or not, with the vorticity it has it's looking more like a headline type system and could be intense/large scale. Heavy rain/snow in the SW and potentially severe weather ahead of it. 18z GFS has a neutral/negative tilt trough coming out as a panhandle hooker. Both Euro/GFS have been persistent on this system.



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[Snowman67]

:uarrow:

You (wxman57) better hope The Winter That Wasn't continues after all of this warm-weather taunting, that's all I can say.

If/when things change, we're gonna do a snow/ice dance on your head!

Go for it, I can take it! Meanwhile, I'm contemplating the chance of us (Houston IAH) reaching 90 degrees in February. Have to put in a max for the month in our forecast contest. Hmmm...

I would take that bet against you. While it may be warm, I would bet that we would not hit a high of 90 degrees in Feb. I'm probably not taking into effect your heat miser power though

[Ntxw]

Optimism Post: Though not expected to make it's way to Texas (a piece will tomorrow), cold is not too far away! It's below zero in northern parts of Montana and North Dakota (not unusual by their standards for this time of year) but certainly different than what has been! Good thing it will clean off this 70s air and bring it down to normal tomorrow!



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I went through some of today's ensembles and Op models, agree with some of the statements that a potential ridge/block might try to generate itself in northeastern Canada/West Greenland at some point. If that is the case, split flow might become active again.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

JB tweets:

"GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term"

We shall see.

Yeah but its mostly for the East Coast according to the Ensembles :/

[Texas Snowman]

Just went out for lunch at one of my favorite spots (Burger House off Airport) and that sure is some beautiful winter weather!! It doesn't get any better than this - sunny and mid 70s in January (except, maybe, when it's sunny and low 80s in January).

Sure is quiet in here...

(Sound of whistle blowing, yellow flag thrown by man in zebra shirt holding a certain bicycle with its tires partially melted by too much piling on of January Thaw):

"Weather penalty! Exceedingly excessive gloating by the QB of the Texas Heat Mongers. Negative 15 degree cold shot penalty with enhanced white-out conditions added. Penalty to be enforced on the 12Z GFS run. Replay winter 2011/12!"

Crowd roars its approval as a greatly chagrined Heat Mongers QB heads for the bench with a February blue norther and "Texas Screamer" blizzard looming on the horizon.

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, a covert "Occupy Winter" meeting is taking place at the Portastorm Weather Center in Austin.

Trucks bearing bottles of Frozen Gray Goose Vodka Cold are being seen occasionally visiting the 12Z loading dock of the compound.

Discouraged winter weather nuts wearing shorts and Hawaiian shirts are ducking in and out of the complex as they slather on suntail lotion onto their winter white legs.

Rumor on the streets has it that large dolls resembling a certain beloved weather forecaster riding a bicycle are being passed out to all in attendance.

Along with dozens of sharp pins...

[Portastorm]

It is this kind of news reporting which wins a Pulitzer Prize.

[Ntxw]

BreakingNews: A number of united front cold mongerers have gathered at the lawn of PWC chanting "I have a dream!...of a winter where all warm and heat mongers can live in harmony! With latent heat snow for all". At that there was a scene in which a sun bather in tights (certain met) was overshadowed by the growing mob all demanding ingestion of the 0z models for the 25th.

[Rgv20]

That storm on 25th+- a day (next week) is trending stronger on the models. Whether it pulls arctic air down or not, with the vorticity it has it's looking more like a headline type system and could be intense/large scale. Heavy rain/snow in the SW and potentially severe weather ahead of it. 18z GFS has a neutral/negative tilt trough coming out as a panhandle hooker. Both Euro/GFS have been persistent on this system.

12zEuro is also hinting at some possible severe weather for parts of North Texas early next week. (around Monday night early Tuesday) but the most important aspect is the forecast rainfall totals.....Texarkana & Houston area my get a couple of inches out of this according to the Euro.

[Ntxw]

Anyone check out the latest stratospheric progged temps? Looks like an even more true SSW event, the Dec event looks tiny compared to this one.

[BigB0882]

Anyone check out the latest stratospheric progged temps? Looks like an even more true SSW event, the Dec event looks tiny compared to this one.

What does SSW stand for? What Dec event?

[Texas Snowman]

Anyone check out the latest stratospheric progged temps? Looks like an even more true SSW event, the Dec event looks tiny compared to this one.

What does SSW stand for? What Dec event?

Sudden Stratospheric Warming

[gpsnowman]

Good morning all. I have been reading on here and other forums that signals are pointing towards a colder pattern in a couple of weeks. -AO, -NAO i.e. I am not giving up on winter just yet. Maybe someone with more knowledge could elaborate better the latest. We have been waiting for this pattern change for a while now, so who knows? You know it is a slow weather morning when we have no late night maps from Rgv20 or morning updates from Portastorm and wxman57.

[somethingfunny]

I woke up at 7am and it was 63 degrees. What happened?