Texas Winter 2012-2013

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Ntxw, is the NAM factoring in the dry atmosphere in NoTex? In reading the FW AFD, they acknowledge the existence of the energy but site the lack of abundant moisture and dry lower levels as not resulting in measurable precip.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, is the NAM factoring in the dry atmosphere in NoTex? In reading the FW AFD, they acknowledge the existence of the energy but site the lack of abundant moisture and dry lower levels as not resulting in measurable precip.

RH values will be quite high. It is the low level moisture that lacks. If enough precip falls in the mid levels and saturates the lower levels, snow will fall modestly for many areas. This is why you see the models trend wetter as we get closer to the event, they don't account for the extra lift due to stronger vorticity which can sometimes over perform.

[BigB0882]

I hope we get a good blast of cold but I wont get my hopes up too much as I remember MANY times when the models forecast such intense cold and it only moderated more and more as the time drew near until we ended up with perfectly average temps. Hopefully this will be the one. I would love a few days of COLD weather so that we can at least hope for some moisture to come with it. Wouldn't it be great if a blast of cold came down and a coastal low formed that ran all along the Gulf coast?

[Ntxw]

I hope we get a good blast of cold but I wont get my hopes up too much as I remember MANY times when the models forecast such intense cold and it only moderated more and more as the time drew near until we ended up with perfectly average temps. Hopefully this will be the one. I would love a few days of COLD weather so that we can at least hope for some moisture to come with it. Wouldn't it be great if a blast of cold came down and a coastal low formed that ran all along the Gulf coast?

Always good to play it safe . We get a little carried away putting up numbers and maps, reality is events like that is uncommon. More than likely it won't happen, but the events that allow the opportunity are set in motion so the chance is there. Even with no frigid blast, at least we know winter will not end early! Even wxman57 has been bothered by it so we are making up for lost ground

[Comanche]

Interesting that Dec 1984 looked like this-


Then Jan 1985 turned out like this-


I bring this up only because it was mentioned in this link- http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... nfirm.html

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting!

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
900 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...A VARIETY OF WEATHER CHANGES ARE COMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE NEXT WEEK...
...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...

COLDER CONDITIONS CAME TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 2ND...2013.
THESE COLDER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE TO
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE.

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH COLD RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE COLD RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES
TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO WEST TEXAS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT CAME TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND IN JANUARY OF 2012.

$$

[Ntxw]

0z GFS comes oh so close to Portastorm(snow should at least fly)! I fully expect a news conference soon for the first flakes at PWC hq. Trend continues to bode well for N Texas on it too. Midland-San Angelo could have a decent prolonged event

[Ntxw]

Here is NAM's profile

DFW -very sufficient dendritic growth zone, quite cold in fact for dry snow if you saturate the below 850mb (near the surface)


Just NW of Austin- good here too, bit wetter flakes

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:uarrow: the 18Z GFS agrees......very cold signals in the long range. With the GFS always seemly to under do artic air masses this could get interesting for some of us down here in SETX. Not so much wintery precip but more so extreme cold.

The 83 freeze was brutal as my family lost cars. Engine blocks cracked. Good write up on the Galveston Bay loss of fish. Hate to see that happen again. I guess its time to head over to Lowes in a few days and get insulation for the outside spickets. Going to lose the tropical plants once again....ugh

I can understand very well why Texas would lose fish, tropical plants and have problems with outside water taps and pipes (re those can't you turn the water off inside your house and drain the lines?) but I don't understand why your engine blocks would crack.....never mind my husband said you would need to add anti-freeze (nasty poisonous stuff and very dangerous should a pet drink it).

A Saskatchewan winter truly isn't going to be good news at all for Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Most of our anti freeze in Texas is rated to 22 degrees. Once it gets below that for an extended period it can do damage to our engines. We can get the 0 degree and - 20 degree anti freeze but it's not in abundance and most people don't think to winterize their engines like that since we rarely get below 20 across much of the state.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Most of our anti freeze in Texas is rated to 22 degrees. Once it gets below that for an extended period it can do damage to our engines. We can get the 0 degree and - 20 degree anti freeze but it's not in abundance and most people don't think to winterize their engines like that since we rarely get below 20 across much of the state.

ouch you are in big trouble then if the maps that have been posted here verify.

Our antifreeze I'm sure is rated to -50C since our vehicles keep going (very unhappily) at those temps.

[orangeblood]

[quote="Ntxw"]Here is NAM's profile

DFW -very sufficient dendritic growth zone, quite cold in fact for dry snow if you saturate the below 850mb (near the surface)


What's your guess on snow ratios for DFW ??

[Ntxw]

What's your guess on snow ratios for DFW ??

I have low skill in it, educated guess 12:1!

[ROCK]

Most of our anti freeze in Texas is rated to 22 degrees. Once it gets below that for an extended period it can do damage to our engines. We can get the 0 degree and - 20 degree anti freeze but it's not in abundance and most people don't think to winterize their engines like that since we rarely get below 20 across much of the state.

yep and in 83 I dont think we had that low of antifreeze on the market. Lost a 454 block and a 350...I dont know I was like 12 back then....

[Ntxw]

0z GFS brings 564-570dm heights very near Alaska. That qualifies as big McFarland signature style -EPO. Still beyond good resolution so soak it up and let it wash away for now

[Ntxw]

Head scratcher for sure. Extreme even for the long range GFS

[Snowman67]

The plot thickens...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAINS COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE COAST...AND RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS HAPPENING.
THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE IS GOING TO BE ISSUED
THIS EVENING.

00Z MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING CHANCES OF PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
POSSIBLY GETTING SOME KIND OF RAIN/SLEET MIX THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GOING TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT FULLY EVALUATE THE NEW
MODEL DATA AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
THIS WINTRY MIX POSSIBILITY

[Comanche]

is this arctic pattern showing up in the euro at all?

[Ntxw]

is this arctic pattern showing up in the euro at all?

It does, has been. Don't look at the surface, look at the heights. It's not your typical set up.

12z euro today, see the resemblance?

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles (Left Panel) agree with the operational on the 500mb Pattern..