Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Some of you may have access to the European Weeklies, if so go check them out. Shows the polar express continuing all the way through to the middle of next month. Coldest long range forecast I've ever seen out of them, has DFW at or below freezing from just before Christmas all the way through the end of forecast cycle - January 12, 2014. Along with the onslaught of Arctic High after Arctic High pouring into the lower 48, several bouts of wintery weather accompanies them. An incredible amount of potential is on the playing field now, pretty fascinating to follow.

That would be ....



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[GRAYSONCO.WX]

May need to keep a close eye on Cooke, Collin, Denton, and Grayson Counties for a brief period overnight. Temperatures range from 34-38 in this area and with precip overnight...hopefully the SE winds warm things up. Just an observation; not a forecast.

[gboudx]

Some of you may have access to the European Weeklies, if so go check them out. Shows the polar express continuing all the way through to the middle of next month. Coldest long range forecast I've ever seen out of them, has DFW at or below freezing from just before Christmas all the way through the end of forecast cycle - January 12, 2014. Along with the onslaught of Arctic High after Arctic High pouring into the lower 48, several bouts of wintery weather accompanies them. An incredible amount of potential is on the playing field now, pretty fascinating to follow.

At or below freezing for that long will cause some frozen grounds to develop. We had a small area of it the week of the Super Bowl. I noticed it when I tried to aerate my yard and couldn't get the aerator thru the top layer. It was like concrete. It also pushed up a couple fence posts.

[TheProfessor]

Some of you may have access to the European Weeklies, if so go check them out. Shows the polar express continuing all the way through to the middle of next month. Coldest long range forecast I've ever seen out of them, has DFW at or below freezing from just before Christmas all the way through the end of forecast cycle - January 12, 2014. Along with the onslaught of Arctic High after Arctic High pouring into the lower 48, several bouts of wintery weather accompanies them. An incredible amount of potential is on the playing field now, pretty fascinating to follow.

That would be ....

http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/8033/vf2t.jpg

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And this is what wxman57 would say if this confirmed.





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[dhweather]

Some of you may have access to the European Weeklies, if so go check them out. Shows the polar express continuing all the way through to the middle of next month. Coldest long range forecast I've ever seen out of them, has DFW at or below freezing from just before Christmas all the way through the end of forecast cycle - January 12, 2014. Along with the onslaught of Arctic High after Arctic High pouring into the lower 48, several bouts of wintery weather accompanies them. An incredible amount of potential is on the playing field now, pretty fascinating to follow.

Weatherbell or somewhere else?

[Ntxw]

Good evening weather enthusiasts! As promised here are the pictures of the frozen pond from this morning







****
Back to weather. Nothing that I've seen from the models sways my thinking. Severe Arctic blast into the US is likely. The PNA is not positive nor is the NAO negative, the coldest anomalies and discharge will be directly into the inter-mountain west and great plains, no questions asked. Again do not play the games with the operational guidance the ensembles are unwavering and king it's not believable if they go east. I have no doubt it is coming, questions will be the severity and any potential systems that will come with it.

As for the weeklies, it's no surprise. We are transitioning into true winter and the wavelengths become longer and whatever pattern is established will be difficult to break. This happens most winters, cold begets cold warmth begets more warmth. The Pacific teleconnection is here to stay, CFSv2 and other long range guidance remains the warm pool right through Spring. Get used to it. It is very likely Texas and the central conus will have a below to well below average winter when it is done.

[orangeblood]

Some of you may have access to the European Weeklies, if so go check them out. Shows the polar express continuing all the way through to the middle of next month. Coldest long range forecast I've ever seen out of them, has DFW at or below freezing from just before Christmas all the way through the end of forecast cycle - January 12, 2014. Along with the onslaught of Arctic High after Arctic High pouring into the lower 48, several bouts of wintery weather accompanies them. An incredible amount of potential is on the playing field now, pretty fascinating to follow.

Weatherbell or somewhere else?

Accuweather pro site

[Ntxw]

Accuweather pro site

I recently checked the weeklies off the weatherbell site and what it has with the NE PAC is incredible. It just dominates everything moving from the gulf of Alaska in NW NA and back, eventually morphing into a Canadian block which is snow storm signal potential. The thing is a monster! If it is remotely right it would be the wildest winter weather period we have seen since the late 70s.

It maintains the coldest air on the planet in North America. As I continue to say, you are witnessing something special from the Pacific one we will not likely see again in our lifetimes. It is one of the warmest if not the warmest pools we have seen in the last 100 years.

[orangeblood]

Accuweather pro site

I recently checked the weeklies off the weatherbell site and what it has with the NE PAC is incredible. It just dominates everything moving from the gulf of Alaska in NW NA and back. The thing is a monster!

Yeah, 3-4 Standard Deviations BIG and swallows Alaska for 3 straight weeks. That run is about as brutal as it gets for the lower 48, hope it doesn't verify because we would have some serious issues around here if so. Most of the infrastructure in the south can't handle sustained cold of that magnitude.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles (Top) and 12zGFS Ensembles (Bottom) forecast 500mb Anomalies for next Saturday Morning......U cant get a better agreement between this two models! Many have said and I totally agree that you should not put much stock in the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF surface forecast as I suspect there are going to be wildly inconsistent.

[orangeblood]

Surface wise, we can start paying attention to the model depiction of the strength of the HP's building in NW Canada. IMO, they always seem to a) underestimate the strength to begin with b) weaken them way too quickly as they make their trek southward, particularly outside the higher resolution time frame of more than 192 hours. We are beginning to enter the higher resolution period when the cold front is making it's way through Texas.

[Ntxw]

I think Portastorm needs to open a weather lab for PWC's young and upcoming mets in the Northwest Territories. What better place to keep the heat miser from corrupting the future of PWC? Surely he won't be anywhere within a thousand miles of it.



Wind chills

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'll be in Lake Louise this weekend... I'll report with eyes frozen open

[ravyrn]

I think Portastorm needs to open a weather lab for PWC's young and upcoming mets in the Northwest Territories. What better place to keep the heat miser from corrupting the future of PWC? Surely he won't be anywhere within a thousand miles of it.

http://i41.tinypic.com/rj1lvq.png

Wind chills

http://i40.tinypic.com/2j62zv8.png

Ship him to Hawaii. That'll leave him isolated and content. He will lack both the ability and the desire to inhibit our wintry weather schemes for the center of North America. I recall someone stating that they are a historian on this thread recently? Perhaps the PWC can enlist their services to study Napoleon. He was exiled on Elba but managed to escape his isolation and return to power in France. We should totally isolate Wxman57 on Hawaii, where he should be quite content, but take the necessary measures to ensure his inability to escape his isolation. Wxman57's rise to power during the summer of 2011 was unbelievable and unprecedented. However, all ruler's reigns come to an end, and his power over our country and more specifically, Texas, is waning. Rise up, my wintry weather brethren and let us end his tyranny!

Fin de la chaleur! L'été est fini! L'hiver est à nos portes! Vive la neige!

[MGC]

That cold is right were it belongs....Canada. Hope it stays up there. I'm dreaming of shorts and flip-flops Christmas Day.......MGC

[Ntxw]

Example the GFS tonight is frigid and brings -20C isotherm to Texas. It will probably be 50 tomorrow...the crazy swings.

However, all ruler's reigns come to an end, and his power over our country and more specifically, Texas, is waning. Rise up, my wintry weather brethren and let us end his tyranny!

Fin de la chaleur! L'été est fini! L'hiver est à nos portes! Vive la neige!

Publicist spot seems to be taken, maybe Ports should consider you for speechwriter. We will take his rule down with bombastic snowballs and piercing icicles!

[BigB0882]

Where do you guys get the GFS runs? I go to twister data but it seems to be HOURS behind on posting everything.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Surface wise, we can start paying attention to the model depiction of the strength of the HP's building in NW Canada. IMO, they always seem to a) underestimate the strength to begin with b) weaken them way too quickly as they make their trek southward, particularly outside the higher resolution time frame of more than 192 hours. We are beginning to enter the higher resolution period when the cold front is making it's way through Texas.

Very good call. Btw this is not La La land, this is before truncation.



If you want to see crazy it goes 1050+ to Colorado but it is lower resolution then so does not count

Where do you guys get the GFS runs? I go to twister data but it seems to be HOURS behind on posting everything.

Nothing faster than http://www.instantweathermaps.com

[orangeblood]

Like clock work the GFS is coming back around to a much stronger HP system entering Montana middle of next week. With a full latitude trough swinging through at some point next weekend, the timing of the front is key. There should be a decent winter storm for someone in the southern plains next weekend. Earlier front arrival = frozen precip line would transition further south potentially deep into the heart of Texas.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[ronyan]

GFS doing it's flip-flop cold air dance as predicted...just doesn't have a good handle on the pattern yet.