Texas Winter 2016-2017

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It's coming!!!

[wxman57]

Or, not... Careful believing the GFS forecast at 8-9 days out. The GFS parallel run says no moisture, no snow. 00Z Euro says a trace of snow up in the D-FW area. I wouldn't believe either one is accurate. It does look like we'll see some colder weather next week, though.

It's been great biking weather of late. Biked 80 miles the past 3 days, all in shorts and sleeveless jersey. We're biking 40 miles up to Beck's Prime in the heights for lunch today. Need to enjoy this last (for a short time, I hope) day of warmth.

[Ntxw]

The coming NPO ridge is more potent than the ridge that set up early to mid December. I wish I could find a good hovmoller depiction from the GFS or it's ensembles. It's quite useful for ENSO, I bet it would be for the mid and high latitudes too. But for now Mike Ventrice has a good one for the ECMWF

The ridges are the red blobs. The area of the Pacific is about the middle in the image which is close to 180 degrees longitude/dateline
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/814075235389571073




There's also the Greenland area that will see some ridging too

[Ntxw]

This will happen, right over wxman57's house. Revenge of the snow miser

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't worry or get all excited about next week until we get to Sunday night and Mondays runs. I have a show of NO confidence in the models till we are in the 72 hr window.

May the Force be with you!

[Portastorm]

I'll tell you what, next week is shaping up to be fascinating and a great opportunity for many of us to learn more about weather. We're going to have an Arctic airmass oozing southward into the state in what will probably be a shallow layer. As some have said in this forum in the last few days, the models are notoriously bad when it comes to handling these types of airmasses. A zonal flow will dominate at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Fast moving disturbances and short waves will happen from time to time. The big question will be how deep is the cold layer and will it support snow or sleet or freezing rain/drizzle. And just how cold will it be at the surface?

Forecasters are going to have their work cut out for them next week, especially the latter half of next week.

[South Texas Storms]

I'll tell you what, next week is shaping up to be fascinating and a great opportunity for many of us to learn more about weather. We're going to have an Arctic airmass oozing southward into the state in what will probably be a shallow layer. As some have said in this forum in the last few days, the models are notoriously bad when it comes to handling these types of airmasses. A zonal flow will dominate at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Fast moving disturbances and short waves will happen from time to time. The big question will be how deep is the cold layer and will it support snow or sleet or freezing rain/drizzle. And just how cold will it be at the surface?

Forecasters are going to have their work cut out for them next week, especially the latter half of next week.

I'm looking forward to the challenge Porta. It's been quite boring around here lately and across much of the country. Bring on some interesting weather!

[Ntxw]

And also what makes it a challenge is how many fronts and how cold. These type of blocking patterns is not a singular shot of cold. Models can overdo one front and underdo the next

[ronyan]

The latest teleconnection forecast shows a -300 minimum EPO. The minimum for the period of the last arctic front was -271 in mid December. What is the standard deviation for the EPO Ntxw?

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，do you think the pattern is more setup for a winter event now or is the euro off base? It seems like it is when it shows something for us.

[Ntxw]

EPO could be 2 to 3 SD's below normal. 4SD would likely yield some daily low records if that happened.

And to golf, not sure why but the recent systems have trended north as the frame came closer. Not sure why perhaps nina? But climo is in our favor now moving into Jan so optimistic.

Front Tues or Weds for the leading cold air. Then it likely stays below normal for awhile. Timing of other fronts TBD. Mid December had about 3 fronts spaced a week apart, the last one was the strongest. This block may be a little longer and stronger with colder climo

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also of interest is the domino effect in the Pacific. Usually with a severe -EPO episode you can bet you'll find bombogenesis occur somewhere in the NPO to kickstart. The area to watch the next 2 days is Kamchatka. Sub 950mb low over that way on the Euro while GFS is sub 940mb. Right now it's the 980s mb low that brought heavy snow over Japan the past few days pumping the EPO high ridge ahead of it. You can see the arrow pointing east northeast on the high which will strengthen as it moves.

Yep, i have noticed this from from investigating the western pacific. The persistent 5H high in the W Pac can help 'build' these lows. When it flexes, it really can build these lows into these events, then build a -EPO etc etc etc.


This run is coming in favorable for us as of now. That high looks to get even bigger.

[Brent]

GFS is very cold even down to the coast next Thursday a hint of frozen precip appears from Austin to Houston

[Portastorm]

GFS is very cold even down to the coast next Thursday a hint of frozen precip appears from Austin to Houston

Oh yeah ... this 12z GFS run is much colder than the 6z and 0z for late next week. Austin low temps next Friday would be in low to mid 20s. Earlier runs had upper 20s to near 30.

[Brent]

[Portastorm]

Now this is what I call a Snow Map! LOL ... And Brent, stop laughing!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'll take it! I'm going to really excite myself too much but it seems we are looking to get a right mix of cold and moisture, lets just hope the shortwaves or lows or whatever line up well for us.

[Ntxw]

At about 240hrs on the GFS there is a 1050+ Siberian high in Alaska/NW Canada and deep cold pooling in W Canada. I suspect that would be true cross polar flow air mass than what occurs on the 5th ish, which is cold in itself...hmm vodka

[ronyan]

Try not to get worked up about the wintry precip but the cold is coming.

[Brent]

Bigger winter storm at 252-276 hours