Texas Winter 2023-2024

[wxman57]

Here's the forecast from the National Blend of Models. We don't really know what individual model will handle the cold and precip well. Often, a blend is best.

[Brent]

Tomorrow night goes from 60 to 20 here and that's just the inital front

What part of Tulsa?

I'm in Edmond and I think we go from 57 high tomorrow to 20 LOL

I'm in South Tulsa im feeling pretty good about Sunday here but it's gonna be so cold during it too like 2021 was

[kirium]

Tomorrow night goes from 60 to 20 here and that's just the inital front

What part of Tulsa?

I'm in Edmond and I think we go from 57 high tomorrow to 20 LOL

I'm in South Tulsa im feeling pretty good about Sunday here but it's gonna be so cold during it too like 2021 was

My mother lives at 105th and Yale. Been telling her to make sure she's all set up and ready.

[Brent]

What part of Tulsa?

I'm in Edmond and I think we go from 57 high tomorrow to 20 LOL

I'm in South Tulsa im feeling pretty good about Sunday here but it's gonna be so cold during it too like 2021 was

My mother lives at 105th and Yale. Been telling her to make sure she's all set up and ready.

Nice I'm more toward 71st and Lewis but I drive all over the place delivering for work and yeah I'm not looking forward to the cold side of this. I didn't even enjoy 2021 that much because it was so cold and windy

[snowballzzz]

Tomorrow night goes from 60 to 20 here and that's just the inital front

What part of Tulsa?

I'm in Edmond and I think we go from 57 high tomorrow to 20 LOL

I'm in South Tulsa im feeling pretty good about Sunday here but it's gonna be so cold during it too like 2021 was

I am near downtown Tulsa. Definitely preparing now for the potential cold. It could be brutal up here. Have the generator ready already, just in case.

[Brent]

What part of Tulsa?

I'm in Edmond and I think we go from 57 high tomorrow to 20 LOL

I'm in South Tulsa im feeling pretty good about Sunday here but it's gonna be so cold during it too like 2021 was

I am near downtown Tulsa. Definitely preparing now for the potential cold. It could be brutal up here. Have the generator ready already, just in case.

I mean yeah I'm feeling pretty good about finally a real snow Sunday but I have a feeling the cold is gonna be the far bigger story like Christmas 22

[cstrunk]

Can you repost?

None of your images are showing up

they show up if I click the link but not embedded in the post.

Reposting won't do any good. You'll just have to click the links. What device are you using to view S2K? PC? Phone?

I'm on a home PC, no worries, I just click on your links

I guess I'm one of the odd ones, if it's going to be cold, give me 6"+ of snow here in Okc. LOL

Same, I'm on my work PC and cannot see the images from certain posters until I right-click on the broken image and select open in new tab. Strange, but it works...

[rwfromkansas]

Reposting won't do any good. You'll just have to click the links. What device are you using to view S2K? PC? Phone?

I'm on a home PC, no worries, I just click on your links

I guess I'm one of the odd ones, if it's going to be cold, give me 6"+ of snow here in Okc. LOL

Same, I'm on my work PC and cannot see the images from certain posters until I right-click on the broken image and select open in new tab. Strange, but it works...

How weird, but I tried this and it worked as well. So, it's not like the entire domain is blocked on my work computer?

[gpsnowman]

Was up and down hwy 360 and the tollway today. Brine crews out laying their solution. Orangblood mentioned this, I want to see some blowing snow with temps in the teens or 20s. Mother Nature at her finest. Nothing sweeter then breathing in fresh arctic air through frozen nostrils.

[Stratton23]

The GFS and Euro even at day 3 are completely far apart from each other on the position of the shortwave, incredibly annoying that we arent starting to get some agreement and its getting inside of 5 days now

[Tammie]

NWS-FW

LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Currently the upper-level support for our Thursday-Friday storm
system is over the PACNW, and will swing down into the Desert
Southwest by Thursday afternoon. By the start of the long term
period (Thursday evening), the shortwave will move through the
Panhandles, with forcing for ascent spreading across the region.
Warm air advection induced convection will be possible across the
eastern half of the region late Thursday ahead of the front. The
front is expected to break through our northwestern counties
around midnight and will continue to trek south/southeast.
Additional showers and storms will be possible overnight as
lift/moisture/instability are able to kick up a line of convection
along the boundary near the I-35 corridor. The parameter space in
forecast soundings show enough instability and shear to support
strong to severe storms for areas near and east of I-35 Thursday
night into Friday. Some surface-based instability and steep lapse
rates will result in the potential for gusty winds and hail in the
more robust storms. This will be a later evening/overnight
system, so make sure to have your plans in place beforehand.

On the back end of the shortwave, wrap-around moisture is expected
to overspread North and Central Texas. This should generally bring
more low cloud cover mainly to North Texas, and keep any additional
precipitation of the winter variety to our north in Oklahoma.
However, a minority of model guidance does output some echoes of
light wintry precip across the Red River Valley Friday morning. As
we expect this to remain just to our north, have continued to keep
any mention of winter precip out of our area. We will need to watch
this over the next 24 hours as short-term high resolution
guidance gets hold of it. If the low digs further south, we may
have to contend with some light early weekend snow across our far
northern zones. Post-FROPA, strong and gusty winds around 25-35
mph and gusts up to 40-45 mph are expected Friday morning and
afternoon. These sustained winds exceed Wind Advisory criteria,
and this product will likely need to be issued in upcoming
forecast updates. Make sure to batten down the hatches and secure
or bring in outdoor items and trash cans to avoid incurring loss.
By early Friday evening winds will have calmed down to much more
modest speeds to end out the week.

Our next system will make its appearance over the latter half of the
weekend, bringing a much more wintry feel to the region. A strong
Arctic cold front will barrel through North and Central Texas over
the morning and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main change with this
forecast update is that the front has sped up a bit with new model
guidance, and deterministic guidance is more in agreement as
compared to yesterday. With the front moving in earlier, areas near
the Red River may see their high temperature early in the day. High
temperatures on Sunday will have quite a gradient, with near-to-
below freezing temperatures in the northwest compared to low 50s
in the far southern zones.

Guidance has also made the case for a more western extent of
precipitation chances on Sunday, though they are very different in
terms of their intensity. The GFS is still quite calm compared to
the "fire and brimstone" ECMWF, and this has been the trend for the
last day or so. Have opted to keep the locations of rain chances
fairly similar to the previous forecast to take an "in the
middle" stance for the continued uncertainty. More confidence is
placed in the northeastern zones, where deterministic and ensemble
guidance has shown a more consistent signal and higher probabilities.
Nonetheless, areas near and east of I-35 have a low chance (20-30%)
of observing a wintry mix of precipitation Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning. We`ll continue to monitor incoming model guidance
over the coming days and refine details when possible.

The current timeline will bring an end to wintry precip by Monday
afternoon as much drier air continues to surge into the region.
What will be left is the bitter cold that will plague the region
Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Overnight temperatures on both
Sunday and Monday night will bottom out in the single digits and
teens, and most, if not all, of the region look to stay below
freezing on Monday. Even though this is still a handful of days
out, cold weather preparations need to be undertaken now. Cover
outdoor pipes and faucets to prevent breaks and leaks, cover/bring
in susceptible plants, bring in furry friends, and check on your
more vulnerable members of society.

[txtwister78]

The GFS and Euro even at day 3 are completely farm apart from each other on the position of the shortwave, incredibly annoying that we arent starting to get some agreement and its getting inside of 5 days now

Still leaning toward the Euro since it's getting a little more support now from the CMC and to an extent associated ensembles. Won't have a better idea though until models can sample it as it enters west coast. Should begin to have more clarity I think by Friday. Short range/Hi-Res will be in play by then too.

[Texas Snow]

don't skip the 2nd paragraph in black that hints a few in the northern burbs could get a quick surprise Friday.

[Ntxw]

Getting into range for MOS. For DFW Monday is 23F/12F and Tuesday 31F/11F.

[Wthrfan]

I'm in Oklahoma City so it looks like there will be some precipitation with this. I guess we'll see as it gets closer.

I'm in Edmond as well!

[Stratton23]

18z GFS has yet another arctic front on this heels of the first one

[South Texas Storms]

I'm ready to fast forward through this cold and dry period coming up and get to the warmer and wetter pattern forecast to return in about 2 weeks. The latest ensembles are in good agreement for that far out with above normal rainfall for much of TX. We really need to get some enhanced rainfall through the spring or I fear it will be another brutal summer.

[txtwister78]

[Tweet][/Tweet]

18z GFS has yet another arctic front on this heels of the first one

Yup both global models (GFS/Euro) have been hinting at that the last few runs.

[Stratton23]

lol the GFS has another ice storm with the 2nd arctic front

[Ghost0321]

ICON has gone even colder