Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Greetings all.

Newcomer to the party. Been a lurker for a while and only decided to post and say thank you. Although I'm a reasonably well-educated man, the language of this site can be difficult to get past....a little like a well intentioned, eager mind reading Shakespeare for the first time, rather than watching it live on stage. In any case, for those rare occurrences when I've actually understood something, or others made it simple for me to understand, thank you. I am quickly becoming a weather...dare I say it...a weather nerd. Not that there is anything wrong with...

You get my point. Thanks again from the idiot who doesn't know a GFS from hole in the head.

Keep up the great work.

Welcome aboard! We all start out the same way . Feel free to add your input anytime!

LOL, isn't that the truth. I thought I was a weather nerd until I found this site. I knew of the models but I couldn't begin to read them, thanks to you guys on this site I can actually look at the models now and have a half decent idea what I'm looking at. It really is a great thing that ya'll continue to be willing to share and help tutor us noobs. Particularly the pro mets, I've always wished I knew what the mets were really thinking behind those forecast discussions, I don't have to wonder anymore.

[Metalicwx220]

Its funny how the cold air gets pushed back farther every day. Look forward to a SIGNIFICANT storm in February. IMO

[wxman57]

The Canadian and Euro are in fairly good agreement (00Z run) in the cold air reaching Texas late Wed or on Thursday morning, but with the trof axis still to the west. What I see is not a deep layer of cold air but a shallow sub-freezing airmass to our north and northwest (hill country through Dallas to OK/KS and east. This is a setup for a freezing rain event to our north on Thursday into Friday morning, not a snow event. It's something we expected might be more likely during a La Nina winter.

GFS has the trof axis to our east with a dry frontal passage on Thursday. I'd tend to believe the Canadian/Euro solution for now. Nothing for us but probably 30s-40s with rain.

Oh, and THIS is the type of front (shallow cold Arctic air with trof to the west) that the models will likely miss by quite a ways. They may show it in OK while it's really already out in the Gulf.

[Snowman67]

The Canadian and Euro are in fairly good agreement (00Z run) in the cold air reaching Texas late Wed or on Thursday morning, but with the trof axis still to the west. What I see is not a deep layer of cold air but a shallow sub-freezing airmass to our north and northwest (hill country through Dallas to OK/KS and east. This is a setup for a freezing rain event to our north on Thursday into Friday morning, not a snow event. It's something we expected might be more likely during a La Nina winter.

GFS has the trof axis to our east with a dry frontal passage on Thursday. I'd tend to believe the Canadian/Euro solution for now. Nothing for us but probably 30s-40s with rain.

Oh, and THIS is the type of front (shallow cold Arctic air with trof to the west) that the models will likely miss by quite a ways. They may show it in OK while it's really already out in the Gulf.

How far south do you think the freezing rain will get? I know it's still a ways out, but wanted to get your thoughts based on the data you have at this point. Thanks.

[JSDS]

The GFS must have a relatively strong front coming through in the future. On the 21st our highs look to stay in the 40's. That is as far as this goes out so won't know until tomorrow what it looks like beyond, if it is just a quick event or a longer term one like this last event:

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

Where did you find this page? If I'm reading it right, it goes out to the 22nd now and is even colder.

[wxman57]

How far south do you think the freezing rain will get? I know it's still a ways out, but wanted to get your thoughts based on the data you have at this point. Thanks.

No way to be confident of that until maybe the day before the event. For now, I'd estimate chances of a significant freezing rain event across TX/OK to be about 30%. That leaves a 70% chance of just another cold front with little post-frontal moisture.

[Portastorm]

12z Canadian continues suggestion of a icy/winter storm for portions of Texas late next week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

The 12z UKMET also shows the same thing, maybe even a bit colder for us late next week if its progged 500mb pattern verifies. Of note, txagwxman has said that the UKMET has had the hot hand lately in terms of accuracy.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

[iorange55]

The GFS 12z even looks a little colder today and shows some precip by the end of the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Source regions are mighty chilly as suggested by Fairbanks this morning...

VERY COLD TEMPS OF 40-50 BELOW NOW IN THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER
YUKON VALLEY WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DRAINAGE OF THIS COLD AIR DOWN THE TANANA VALLEY IS CAUSING WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES NOW THROUGH EARLY SUN.

[orangeblood]

12z Canadian continues suggestion of a icy/winter storm for portions of Texas late next week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

The 12z UKMET also shows the same thing, maybe even a bit colder for us late next week if its progged 500mb pattern verifies. Of note, txagwxman has said that the UKMET has had the hot hand lately in terms of accuracy.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

Unless I'm reading the model wrong, The only wintry weather I can see on the 12Z Canadian is in far west Texas. The precip looks to end before the cold air arrives across most of central into north Texas. Also, that UKMET loop is from yesterday at 12Z. The 0Z run from last night is less favorable.

Things have not been trending in our favor for winter weather late next week

[gpsnowman]

I know this is too far out but Jerry Jones would crap his pants if the DFW area had a monster ice storm Super Bowl weekend.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggest a nasty pattern from TX to OK beginning on Thursday.

[Portastorm]

12z Canadian continues suggestion of a icy/winter storm for portions of Texas late next week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

The 12z UKMET also shows the same thing, maybe even a bit colder for us late next week if its progged 500mb pattern verifies. Of note, txagwxman has said that the UKMET has had the hot hand lately in terms of accuracy.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

Unless I'm reading the model wrong, The only wintry weather I can see on the 12Z Canadian is in far west Texas. The precip looks to end before the cold air arrives across most of central into north Texas. Also, that UKMET loop is from yesterday at 12Z. The 0Z run from last night is less favorable.

Things have not been trending in our favor for winter weather late next week

Better look again at that UKMet loop ... the initialization time is 12z today (1.15). So I'm really not sure what you're talking about. On the Canadian run, I pay more attention to the 500mb pattern and not the surface depiction. The 500mb pattern shows a strong flow from Canada into the Southern Plains. Considering the source region ... that is cold air, plenty enough for nasty winter weather. The 500mb pattern on the Canadian also shows a lagging upper level energy before finally passing through the state around 156 hours.

I would respectfully disagree with your assessment that the trends are not in our favor. On the contrary ... they continue to support a winter storm for portions of Texas (central, north, northeast).

[Ntxw]

The surface features have been flip flopping, and timing of cold air as well. The 500mb flow charts have been relatively stable. This is a classic failure of the models to depict shallow air masses well. +PNA screams down the spine of the rockies. I wouldn't worry about details right now, they've been flopping about that, big sign right there.

I'll bet by early-mid next week, the GFS will slowly show a big ticket storm across the country. Euro has been trending in that direction.

[orangeblood]

The UKMET link you sent was for 12 hours from initialization time - not at initialization time. so the first frame it shows is at 00z Saturday the 15th.

All I'm trying to point out is that The trough appears to be trending faster and looks to be coming through too quickly for there to be a big winter storm. It was much deeper/slower a couple of days ago.

[northtxboy]

ok so how can you tell if it will be ice or snow? and does anyone think we will get ice next week..The reason I ask is cause last week when we had that snow storm most of you guys were right on target about it and my local met didnt say anything about snow till the last moment. I trust this site more than I trust my local met.

[Ntxw]

ok so how can you tell if it will be ice or snow? and does anyone think we will get ice next week..The reason I ask is cause last week when we had that snow storm most of you guys were right on target about it and my local met didnt say anything about snow till the last moment. I trust this site more than I trust my local met.

Last time, it wasn't cold enough for snow or ice. We placed bet that the storm itself would generate cold air throughout the column as it deepens = snow. This time source region (Canada) is very very cold. Cold air is dense and gravity has a tendency to move it quicker, which in turn will likely undercut the warm air in place. Throw moisture from the SW over it (doesn't look like a deep storm right now), you have overrunning, warm aloft, frigid below = ice. This may not be case, just early indications are so.

[northtxboy]

ok so how can you tell if it will be ice or snow? and does anyone think we will get ice next week..The reason I ask is cause last week when we had that snow storm most of you guys were right on target about it and my local met didnt say anything about snow till the last moment. I trust this site more than I trust my local met.

Last time, it wasn't cold enough for snow or ice. We placed bet that the storm itself would generate cold air throughout the column as it deepens = snow. This time source region (Canada) is very very cold. Cold air is dense and gravity has a tendency to move it quicker, which in turn will likely undercut the warm air in place. Throw moisture from the SW over it (doesn't look like a deep storm right now), you have overrunning, warm aloft, frigid below = ice. This may not be case, just early indications are so.

I am still new at this but I remember what you are talking about,,I remmeber someone saying the rain itself was going to cool the column of the storm and thats how we got snow,,right? all I know is I dont want the ice,,,I live out in the middle of nowhere and thee last ice storm we had it took almost 3 weeks to get power back,,this time I want to be prepared for it cause this time around I have kids. How many more days before we get a good idea on what might happen?

[Mr. Weather]

So with this new blast coming through what is Houston looking at getting maybe somemore rain and a few days of lows possibly in the 30 's ?? What about the highs ? And any chance for a wintery mix this time ? J/w thanks

[somethingfunny]

So with this new blast coming through what is Houston looking at getting maybe somemore rain and a few days of lows possibly in the 30 's ?? What about the highs ? And any chance for a wintery mix this time ? J/w thanks

99% sure that you already know what Houston's going to get.