Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Good morning all. I have been reading on here and other forums that signals are pointing towards a colder pattern in a couple of weeks. -AO, -NAO i.e. I am not giving up on winter just yet. Maybe someone with more knowledge could elaborate better the latest. We have been waiting for this pattern change for a while now, so who knows? You know it is a slow weather morning when we have no late night maps from Rgv20 or morning updates from Portastorm and wxman57.

I know it may be hard to believe, but I've got an extremely busy day with non-weather activities (work, family). No posts from PWC today besides this one. But I'll definitely be posting manana. I'm liking how late month/early Feb is looking.

[HockeyTx82]

WOW, look at all of the winter warnings and advisories for the NW US.

http://www.weather.gov/

[wxman57]

Sure is quiet around here. Gives me a chance to work on an SIC event (sudden ionospheric cooling) to counter the projected SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) and keep the Arctic air bottled up in Canada...

Meanwhile, 12Z Euro drops the upper low moving across north TX forecast in favor of a moderately sharp trof passing next Tuesday with the upper low in southern Canada. It's a bit slower (6-12hrs) than the GFS's solution of a closed upper low moving across the northern TX panhandle and northern OK next Tuesday.

Both models indicate just a little snow across the northern TX panhandle into northern OK next Tuesday. Could be another severe storm generator across parts of TX, though.

[Ntxw]

Sure is quiet around here. Gives me a chance to work on an SIC event (sudden ionospheric cooling) to counter the projected SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) and keep the Arctic air bottled up in Canada...

Oh no you don't wxman57! Portastorm is already on his way up there with his Portanaut shuttle equipped with a large supply of hairspray (btw shouldn't it be SIW? Warming ionosphere, which cools the stratosphere)! His pristine hair may no longer be able to move again but it's a risk we are all willing to take!

I think this SSW event is true blue, it will take some time to effect the pattern but maybe in time for February. We'll be in split flow beyond next week so transient cool shots as Canada milds up. Then it's time to keep an eye out on Northern Asia to see how the SSW helps develop ridging there as it could have implications in our side of the world. Hopefully! Next week's system has no model agreement on track but at least we get some weather goin!

Edit: Meanwhile GFS Ensembles still paint ridging in Northeastern Canada/Greenland in the longer range while the -PNA subsides.

[Big O]

12z GFS ensemble at hour 384 (February 2, 2012) should raise some eyebrows:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/85 ... s2212.png/

[Turtle]

Wow, last nights low was 69F! That is about 33 degrees above our average low. Heck a 69F high is quite warm by high temp standards even.

[Turtle]

18Z GFS looks pretty warm still with 1/29 - 2/1 in the 70s.

I was bored so I looked at the past 5 January's where I live, and the warmest was Jan '09:

80s: 1
70s: 6
60s: 11

This year it's

80s: 0
70s: 4 + 6 more in the forecast
60s: 7 + 5 more in forecast

[Rgv20]

My backyard had a high of 90 and McAllen officially had a high of 89!!!


Edit: With regards to potential cold air in the long range (Weekend of Jan 28-29) the 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run is forecasting some pretty cold air for Texas with below 0c 850mb temps for the whole state...with the -5c line reaching from San Antonio and Corpus Christi. Obviously caution should be used as the 0z run did not indicated such cold air and a few false alarms provided by this same model.

[hriverajr]

0Z GFS hints at another west texas snow at 180 hours

[Portastorm]

The 0z medium-range model suite has really sweetened up the pot, so to speak. The GFS now cuts off the low to our west while the Euro shows a more progressive solution. The CMC lies somewhere in between. Looking more and more likely that a severe weather event will erupt for portions of Texas early next week.

And oh wait ... (and this one's for you, wxman57) ... what's that I see around 300 hrs on the GFS ... is that a ... Arctic air sliding down Montana and the lee side of the Rockies ... the typical path of many of our Arctic airmasses?!

You folks only thought those were dropsondes dropped in the Pacific to sample the atmosphere for the models ... little did you know that your Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center switched out those sondes for bottles of GG. Winter weather for everyone ... WHOO HOO!!

[wxman57]

Unfortunately (for me), there may actually be a large enough pool of cold air up in Canada by late next week such that we could get some quite cold air down south. Meanwhile, I think I'll put in for a vacation day Friday and enjoy the mid 70s Fri-Sun on some long bike rides.

[Texas Snowman]

Unfortunately (for me), there may actually be a large enough pool of cold air up in Canada by late next week such that we could get some quite cold air down south. Meanwhile, I think I'll put in for a vacation day Friday and enjoy the mid 70s Fri-Sun on some long bike rides.

GASP!!! The Mayans may have been right after all!!! 2012 is really the end of the world as we know it!!!

[wxman57]

It's still the 360+ hr GFS we're talking about. That's my only hope...

[Rgv20]

And oh wait ... (and this one's for you, wxman57) ... what's that I see around 300 hrs on the GFS ... is that a ... Arctic air sliding down Montana and the lee side of the Rockies ... the typical path of many of our Arctic airmasses?!

6zGFS showing a really nice pattern for some Arctic air to move south Hopefully the GFS continues to show this scenario!

[Portastorm]

It's still the 360+ hr GFS we're talking about. That's my only hope...

What is that supposed to mean? Are you questioning the mighty GFS at long range? Why, I think it's as trustworthy as Tony Romo in a playoff game. Oops ... sorry Cowboys fans.

If we can get that Gulf of Alaska low to retrograde west and a ridge to pop up off the West Coast, we may be in business.

[wxman57]

Well, I can't say there's no cold air in Canada now. We should prepare for the worst - we might actually see some winter temps this winter.

[gboudx]

Well, I can't say there's no cold air in Canada now. We should prepare for the worst - we might actually see some winter temps this winter.

Under Armour Cold Gear. Works great.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS rolling now ... looks like next week's storm is more progressive (like the 0z Euro run) and the trough is not quite as deep which would mean less of a severe weather threat for us (central/south Texas). The 0z depiction of a cutoff low is not to be seen.

Now, let's see what this 12z run has for us later in the cycle.

[gpsnowman]

Well, I can't say there's no cold air in Canada now. We should prepare for the worst - we might actually see some winter temps this winter.

When I read your last two posts I had to ask my daughter to pinch me to see if I was dreaming. All aboard the Arctic train!!! Bring it. We have all shown patience and now we shall be rewarded, I hope. Please. Snow. Cold. Am I dreaming?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pushes the cold air back to 384. Still showing big time cold moving though