Texas Winter 2016-2017

[South Texas Storms]

Bigger winter storm at 264-276 hours

Yep snow down to Houston as the system tracks across the region. What a run!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

About to get real technical, but NTx, what forms a gulf low? Is it as simple as the jet streak or very high winds in the upper atmosphere traveling over the gulf coast? Does this promote lift at the surface with the air column above moving so quickly?? So crucial for us here in SE Tx.

[Ntxw]

About to get real technical, but NTx, what forms a gulf low? Is it as simple as the jet streak or very high winds in the upper atmosphere traveling over the gulf coast? Does this promote lift at the surface with the air column above moving so quickly?? So crucial for us here in SE Tx.

A southern moving vorticity along the base of the jet streak. Surface low reflection loves to form in the gradient which there tends to be when cold air hits the coastal waters that are often warmer. It really helps if you can pva to dig into northern Mexico

[Brent]

GFS clown snow map has 3-5" in DFW but has nearly a foot over by Texarkana. A couple inches in Austin. Some light accumulation even in Houston.

[South Texas Storms]

That's one of the most fun model runs we've had around here in a while. Very cold with several risks of frozen precip.

The cold is coming. The question is will we get lucky enough to have a disturbance interact with it?

[Ntxw]

The GFS run basically has North America in the icebox most of its run. The WPO/EPO ridges really at play and the AO and NAO are not fighting it. Wonder if we go January 1962? Or at least a modified version

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I told y'all I was bringing the snow back from Montana. Meanwhile, its 10F here with 14 new inches of snow

[gpsnowman]

Try not to get worked up about the wintry precip but the cold is coming.

I'm trying! I'm trying! But I can't help it!.............Help me.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

MJO help would be huge, keep that high south of us from flexing allowing the UL's to travel in the southern US

Euro time coming up next. Lets hope for some of the same.

[Brent]

Try not to get worked up about the wintry precip but the cold is coming.

I'm trying! I'm trying! But I can't help it!.............Help me.

Lol I know I'm supposed to be all skeptical but these freaking model runs are drawing me in.

[bubba hotep]

Nice to see another EPO crash coming but overall it looks to be another wasted batch of cold air. The overall setup is not necessarily favorable for snow in the DFW area. Maybe some freezing rain or sleet but even that seems to be a stretch given things recently. The models have been over doing precipitation in the medium range and until that trend breaks I won't buy what the models are selling.

The later run system on the 12z GFS at least has a more believable 500mb setup with higher heights across the Great Lakes. That type of transition is probably the best bet for a snow storm given the current pattern but it would be a pretty big shift from what we've been seeing and it is worthless fantasy range images.

[Ntxw]

Nice to see another EPO crash coming but overall it looks to be another wasted batch of cold air. The overall setup is not necessarily favorable for snow in the DFW area. Maybe some freezing rain or sleet but even that seems to be a stretch given things recently. The models have been over doing precipitation in the medium range and until that trend breaks I won't buy what the models are selling.

The later run system on the 12z GFS at least has a more believable 500mb setup with higher heights across the Great Lakes. That type of transition is probably the best bet for a snow storm given the current pattern but it would be a pretty big shift from what we've been seeing and it is worthless fantasy range images.

It would be nice to get a -AO, a real one and not a NAO bootleg event for those higher heights. But the strong Strat vortex won't allow that for the time being. Fast flow in front is best we can work with. Hopefully we can get the STJ to show any signs of life for surprise overachieving events.

[orangeblood]

12z GFS ENS have 14 out of 20 members showing some sort of Texas winter storm next week, odds are increasing....

[srainhoutx]

12z GFS ENS have 14 out of 20 members showing some sort of Texas winter storm next week, odds are increasing....

Yep...and the potential of a Coastal low/trough developing after the cold air at the surface is in place with at least 2 upper air disturbances passing overhead.

[Ntxw]

Verbatim GFS has DFW hovering near freezing from Weds to Sat. That is a pretty long stretch. Sun-Mon after is mid 30. Low for the stretch towards the end is 14F

[Brent]

12z GFS ENS have 14 out of 20 members showing some sort of Texas winter storm next week, odds are increasing....

Good to see some real support for the idea. The Christmas storm never really had that at that range, just the op GFS, not the Euro or the ensembles.

Euro has the front Tuesday Night at DFW, by Wednesday afternoon it's near freezing.

Has a few hundredths of QPF Wednesday evening with temps at 32-33 at DFW, and a little more Thursday morning with temps just above freezing.

[Ntxw]

12z euro is mildly interesting with cold coming first next week and energy hanging around to the west

[Brent]

Euro big winter storm again at the end of the run

[Ntxw]

And more anomalous cold coming from W Canada at 240hr euro

[JayDT]

I know it might be way too early to ask this question, but here t goes anyway.. I have to travel by road to Denver around January 10th. Am I better off going on January 2nd or 3rd with all this cold and wintry weather being depicted by the models?? I know things will change between now and those dates, but i'd love some opinions so i can plan ahead of time instead of at the last minute.