Texas Winter 2022-2023

[AubreyStorm]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

“Noon Thursday”

Here at North Texas?

[Cpv17]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

“Noon Thursday”

Here at North Texas?

He lives in central Oklahoma.

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

“Noon Thursday”

Here at North Texas?

6 PM in Northern Texas

[BrokenGlass]

I see a -47°F reading in the Yukon Territory, -13°F in the Dakotas.

That's the dew point temperature. It's been cold at that one spot for 2-3 days. -30s in northern Yukon and some -10 to -15F in the northern NW Territories. Still no front to identify.

By the way, which one of you has been messing with my wall?

I have a brother in Wisconsin. He has his orders.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Ntxw]

GFS track wise subtle but nothing major change. Canadian took a shift at 5H south and west.

[Iceresistance]

GFS track wise subtle but nothing major change. Canadian took a shift at 5H south and west.

A very strong one too, I finally get the snow on the Canadian model!

[rwfromkansas]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

The arctic front or the snow?

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

The arctic front or the snow?

Both for my area, it's an instant cold and snow at once!

[Cpv17]

As far as weather events go, this could be the pinnacle for Oklahoma. It doesn’t get better than having a blizzard with temps approaching 0°F.

[Ntxw]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

The arctic front or the snow?

Both for my area, it's an instant cold and snow at once!

It's slowed because guidance has been gradually shifting from an eastern trough to western-central trough more classic of dump into the intermountain west and then the plains.



GEFS says trends are still room for more trough in the interior west.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

The main weather headline in the long term period is the passage
of a strong Arctic cold front early Thursday, bringing the
coldest temperatures of the winter season and a hard freeze for
parts of the region. If you`re traveling ahead of the holiday
weekend, now is the time to make the necessary preparations to
your home, check in on neighbors and family, protect your plants,
and ensure your pets are indoors.

Key Takeaways:
* Temperatures will likely remain below freezing from Thursday
through Saturday across North and Central Texas. This duration
may cause impacts to exposed pipes and other infrastructure.

* Wind chill values will fall into the single digits on Thursday,
and may fall below 0 degrees Thursday night.

* The highest uncertainty at this time is the potential for winter
precipitation on Thursday, and the forecast will change over the
next few days.

Precipitation will come to an end across our far southeastern
counties Monday night with the arrival of a cold front. Increased
cloud cover across the region and generally weak cold air
advection will result in highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, the advertised Arctic airmass
will begin to spill south into the Northern Plains Wednesday
afternoon.

The exact timing of our Arctic blast is still in question at this
time. The latest ECMWF maintains a faster progression, with the
front pushing through our northwestern counties early Thursday
morning and exiting Central Texas before Thursday afternoon, while
the latest GFS is several hours slower. I would tend to lean
toward a faster solution as coarser guidance is typically too slow
with shallow Arctic cold fronts. Should the faster solution occur,
the high temperature for Thursday would be realized during the
predawn hours across our northwestern counties and morning hours
elsewhere. There should hopefully be more clarity as the front is
captured by high res guidance. The NAM, in particular, tends to
handle these shallow airmasses fairly well.

We`ll also have to contend with strong north winds as temperatures
steadily fall into the 20s and 30s on Thursday. Sustained winds
upwards of 20-25MPH and gusts upwards of 35 MPH will yield wind
chills in the single digits along the Red River and teens across
Central Texas. As far as the precipitation potential for
Thursday... run to run consistency on any precipitation has been
poor, and this is probably where there is the least confidence
with this event. There may be sufficient lift to support light
rain and snow across portions of the region on Thursday as the
upper trough moves east toward the Great Lakes, but with
uncertainty on the position and timing of the trough, as well as
moisture quality, we`ll keep PoPs confined to 20% or less.

Temperatures will plummet into the single digits along the Red
River and mid teens elsewhere Thursday night. There is medium
confidence (60-70%) that portions of North Texas and the Big
Country will reach Hard Freeze Warning criteria (T < 10 degrees).
There is lower confidence (30-40% or less) that we`ll reach this
criteria in the DFW Metroplex and Central Texas, but this is not
out of the question as the 25 percentiles are just below 10
degrees. Temperatures below 10 degrees will cause exposed pipes to
freeze, so please make the necessary preparations for your home!
Note: These products are typically issued 36-48 hours if the
chance of meeting criteria exceeds 80%. Wind chill values may
fall below 0 degrees across most of the region as well, which
meets Wind Chill Advisory criteria, but this will be dependent on
wind speeds Thursday night.

It is highly likely North and Central Texas will remain below
freezing through Saturday afternoon, as high temperatures Friday
will range from 20-30 degrees and low temperatures Friday night
will range in the teens. Temperatures should warm into the upper
30s for a few Saturday afternoon (Christmas Eve), but will fall
into the teens and 20s Christmas morning. The duration of
subfreezing temperatures will range from 36-60 hours, with the
longest period expected near the Red River. Remember to protect
the 4 P`s: people, pets, plants, and pipes!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The arctic front or the snow?

Both for my area, it's an instant cold and snow at once!

It's slowed because guidance has been gradually shifting from an eastern trough to western-central trough more classic of dump into the intermountain west and then the plains.

https://i.imgur.com/qVD2gzD.gif

GEFS says trends are still room for more trough in the interior west.

https://i.imgur.com/ntZfQYB.png

Beautiful look, especially if we want to tap into whatever moisture we can get.

[Cpv17]

The arctic front or the snow?

Both for my area, it's an instant cold and snow at once!

It's slowed because guidance has been gradually shifting from an eastern trough to western-central trough more classic of dump into the intermountain west and then the plains.

https://i.imgur.com/qVD2gzD.gif

GEFS says trends are still room for more trough in the interior west.

https://i.imgur.com/ntZfQYB.png

How much further SW do you think it needs to go to give you guys in NTX a realistic chance?

[wxman57]

12Z model runs are definitely not as cold for Houston, about 3-4 deg above 00Z temps. My new favorite model is the UKMET, which only has us down to 26 Friday morning. Better than the 15 of the Canadian.

[Ntxw]

Both for my area, it's an instant cold and snow at once!

It's slowed because guidance has been gradually shifting from an eastern trough to western-central trough more classic of dump into the intermountain west and then the plains.

https://i.imgur.com/qVD2gzD.gif

GEFS says trends are still room for more trough in the interior west.

https://i.imgur.com/ntZfQYB.png

How much further SW do you think it needs to go to give you guys in NTX a realistic chance?

Just a little more. I think a more southerly dive through Utah, NE Arizona and southern NM will put central TX into play as well.

But realistically we don't know what the qpf is going to really look like until hi-res range. Coarse models has too broad a qpf field it will be much more defined than it is currently showing and follows the greatest areas of lift.

[Brent]

As far as weather events go, this could be the pinnacle for Oklahoma. It doesn’t get better than having a blizzard with temps approaching 0°F.

Definitely gonna be interesting I think but then the ukmet comes in with basically zero snow

I'm ready for some hi res models these globals are a mess sometimes

[txtwister78]

Using the NBM is probably the best way to go right now until as Ntxw pointed out you get into Hi-Res timeframe where this arctic wave (dynamics) can be sampled better. Still think the GFS is a little too bullish and is definitely the outlier of the globals thus far in terms of accumulations but we shall see.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSouthern/status/1604512477739302913

[Iceresistance]

Is it just me, or do I see a -49°F reading in the Yukon Territory?


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/90fwbg-2.gif

[Brent]

Using the NBM is probably the best way to go right now until as Ntxw pointed out you get into Hi-Res timeframe where this arctic wave (dynamics) can be sampled better. Still think the GFS is a little too bullish and is definitely the outlier of the globals thus far in terms of accumulations but we shall see.

https://twitter.com/NWSSouthern/status/1604512477739302913?s=20&t=aYOWAGOOJYl22tszl7pcsg

Yeah I guess my thing is will this be a novelty snow or actually a full blown snowstorm

[Iceresistance]

Trough on the 12z Euro at +84 hours even further west