Texas Winter 2023-2024

[tolakram]

Reposting won't do any good. You'll just have to click the links. What device are you using to view S2K? PC? Phone?

I'm on a home PC, no worries, I just click on your links

I guess I'm one of the odd ones, if it's going to be cold, give me 6"+ of snow here in Okc. LOL

Same, I'm on my work PC and cannot see the images from certain posters until I right-click on the broken image and select open in new tab. Strange, but it works...

wxman hosts images on a site without a security certificate. By default you cannot see insecure images from a secure site (S2K pays for a security certificate to help protect our users). You can easily allow images with the browser site settings. I use chrome so I only know chrome settings. Click to the left of the Storm2k.org.... URL and select site settings, then allow insecure images. You take the risk that someone can include an image that is not an image but something bad. Risk is low IMO, but it is an additional risk. If you can't figure out how to do this I'm sorry, this is the most help I will offer.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS might pull some of the air from Siberia for the 2nd round of Arctic air. Is it me or is Siberia having a brutal winter..... What are teh possible implications of this for late winter, or is it possible we are already seeing these effects.

Bundled up here in Denver, ready for Jack Frost. One of the few with a real fireplace here. I'll be burning all kinds of wood i collected over the winter. Stay warm, peeps!

[Ntxw]

The GFS might pull some of the air from Siberia for the 2nd round of Arctic air. Is it me or is Siberia having a brutal winter..... What are teh possible implications of this for late winter, or is it possible we are already seeing these effects.

Bundled up here in Denver, ready for Jack Frost. One of the few with a real fireplace here. I'll be burning all kinds of wood i collected over the winter. Stay warm, peeps!

If you composite El Ninos, mod to strong, Siberia is often below normal. As we are accustomed to warm Decembers in Ninos, Asia tends to be very cold. Note the record breaking chill over Beijing back in December.

It is the other way during La Nina where the coldest anomalies tend to sit over Canada. We are in a weird phase right now where tropical and high latitude Pacific forcing is La Nina esque. Likely some influence of the -PDO.

[opticsguy]

I'm ready to fast forward through this cold and dry period coming up and get to the warmer and wetter pattern forecast to return in about 2 weeks. The latest ensembles are in good agreement for that far out with above normal rainfall for much of TX. We really need to get some enhanced rainfall through the spring or I fear it will be another brutal summer.

Late season cold that reduces the temperature of the Gulf so that less moisture is available in April and May for convective storms, then leads to higher 500mb heights in June and a summer drought. It's my theory but I'm sticking to it.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm thinking we'll see our coldest temperatures of the season early next week. While we'll likely see temperatures averaging below normal into February, it seems that the coldest conditions should occur Monday into Tuesday.

[869MB]

I'm ready to fast forward through this cold and dry period coming up and get to the warmer and wetter pattern forecast to return in about 2 weeks. The latest ensembles are in good agreement for that far out with above normal rainfall for much of TX. We really need to get some enhanced rainfall through the spring or I fear it will be another brutal summer.

I agree with you, which is why I have been fairly quiet the past few months here. Now I'm going to very cautiously, be more optimistic about our rain chances this forthcoming summer since the ATL Tropical Activity will be a wildcard this year. Maybe, just maybe, we will experience a more favorable summer pattern that may deliver a tropical system or two that will spread beneficial rains across most of S/SE/SC TX - hopefully, minus any major hurricane landfalls. It's the 2025 Summer that may be a problem because we will most likely be dealing with a fully coupled La Nina base state in conjunction with a continued -PDO. I'm trying to be optimistic for a change.

[Nederlander]

Here's the forecast from the National Blend of Models. We don't really know what individual model will handle the cold and precip well. Often, a blend is best.

If you weren’t such a good met already, you’d make a hell of a trader. Classic forecasting hedge

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm ready to fast forward through this cold and dry period coming up and get to the warmer and wetter pattern forecast to return in about 2 weeks. The latest ensembles are in good agreement for that far out with above normal rainfall for much of TX. We really need to get some enhanced rainfall through the spring or I fear it will be another brutal summer.

I agree with you, which is why I have been fairly quiet the past few months here. Now I'm going to very cautiously, be more optimistic about our rain chances this forthcoming summer since the ATL Tropical Activity will be a wildcard this year. Maybe, just maybe, we will experience a more favorable summer pattern that may deliver a tropical system or two that will spread beneficial rains across most of S/SE/SC TX - hopefully, minus any major hurricane landfalls. It's the 2025 Summer that may be a problem because we will most likely be dealing with a fully coupled La Nina base state in conjunction with a continued -PDO. I'm trying to be optimistic for a change.

2025 will be the peak of this solar cycle before we head back to a minima. I already have plans to spend the whole Summer of 2025 in Montana. My guess is it’s going to suck.

We should head to a cooler period overall in the late 20s.

[Texas Snow]

Good lord my man, that’s like telling me the cowboys will be in the Super Bowl again, in 2050.

[orangeblood]

Good luck wxman57…love your persistence but may need to throw in the towel on this one! Has all the characteristics of a record breaker

[orangeblood]

GFS finally coming around to the Euro, not quite there yet but overall good sign!

[txtwister78]

GFS finally coming around to the Euro, not quite there yet but overall good sign!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype/1704931200/1705287600-shOoasKrUds.png

Out to lunch in terms of its handling of surface temps and so it's still worthless even at this range.

[Gotwood]

GFS finally coming around to the Euro, not quite there yet but overall good sign!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype/1704931200/1705287600-shOoasKrUds.png

The dry air that was encompassing west Texas on all the runs last night seems to have moved back down into Mexico hopefully that’s a sign that moisture will be available.

[txtwister78]

CMC going all in with Euro.

[Brent]

Nearly a foot on the Kuchera GFS map here. Someone hold me

Remembers when it had barely 2 inches yesterday

[Gotwood]

CMC going all in with Euro.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/scentus/instant_ptype/1704931200/1705276800-rNxZyRb5kyY.png

Peep the precipitable water on the new runs. We are definitely moving in the right direction.

[Brent]

The TV met was way more bullish just now said all the data is way more aggressive

[Stratton23]

insane gfs run, just continuously floods us with arctic air

[Ntxw]

Teens and 20s with sleet? I find that hard to believe, ptypes should be further south.

[Iceresistance]

I got something funny with y'all with the 12z Euro Kuchera Snowfall map


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0wNV.png