Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Pushes the cold air back to 384. Still showing big time cold moving though

More importantly, at least from my perspective, is the massive cold trough over the Plains that the GFS develops beyond 300 hours. Earlier runs didn't show such a deep trough. As the lead warm-mongerer has told us over the years on this forum, it is better to pay attention to the 500mb maps than the 850mb or surface depictions. If the 500mb flow were to verify per this GFS run, we'd see Arctic air plunge south much quicker than what this model run is showing.

The trends are looking better and better, winter weather fans!

[wxman57]

Major difference in 12Z GFS - no big snowstorm for Northern Plains/Great Lakes/Midwest at 360-384 hrs. Totally gone.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS coming in with the Arctic goods! But its still a longs way off (300+hrs)

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't get too caught up on long range GFS yet. That model has shown different solutions even in the short range. We still need the euro to buy in before we get excited. The mjo needs to be favorable or the ridge out west won't look well. One thing is for sure, consistent height rises in northeastern Canada.

[gpsnowman]

Ok so 300+ is looking good but I have a quick question. Does the snowpack look to increase between now and then to help our chances? Places that normally see cold and snow are finally getting it. Even Seattle!

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't get too caught up on long range GFS yet. That model has shown different solutions even in the short range. We still need the euro to buy in before we get excited. The mjo needs to be favorable or the ridge out west won't look well. One thing is for sure, consistent height rises in northeastern Canada.

Well, in its (GFS) defense, it has suggested the potential for some major cold to plunge south beyond 300 hours for several cycles now. As wxman57 pointed out though, the synoptics for a major storm during that time frame have changed quite a bit. Interesting to note that this morning's GFS ensemble teleconnections suggest a negative EPO/positive PNA by late in the month. Obviously that would be a great pattern for us winter weather lovers in Texas. Conversely, the Euro ensembles showed the opposite! Go figure.

[MGC]

You guys make me laugh....so desperate for cold air. I'm with 57....NO COLD! The GFS out at 300+ hours has been so far off this year it is nothing more than fantasy novel. But, I know it will be correct one of these time. Visions of the Christmas snow of 2004 still linger.....MGC

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pushes the cold air back to 384. Still showing big time cold moving though

More importantly, at least from my perspective, is the massive cold trough over the Plains that the GFS develops beyond 300 hours. Earlier runs didn't show such a deep trough. As the lead warm-mongerer has told us over the years on this forum, it is better to pay attention to the 500mb maps than the 850mb or surface depictions. If the 500mb flow were to verify per this GFS run, we'd see Arctic air plunge south much quicker than what this model run is showing.

The trends are looking better and better, winter weather fans!

I also noticed this, but me being in my pessimist mood remembered it is still past 300+ hours. Another note, I am not the best meteorologist at my house.... From the view in my computer room, the squirrel that hides nuts somewhere on the roof of my house or the fireplace has been VERY active today. He runs along the fence then leaps onto my roof when he is busy putting nuts up. From 2008 ive been keep track of his antics and he typically signals cold air about 3 weeks in advance. Call me crazy but this is something ive noticed over the last few years. 2009-10, and last winter he was VERY busy often. Maybe ill try and get a pic of his rascal.

[Ntxw]

Brrr its cold in Montana, few days ago they were forecasting a few below zero for lows now the highs are teens below! Cut bank is -21 at this hour

[South Texas Storms]

I don't know about you guys, but I find the 12z models really depressing. The 0z CMC, Euro and GFS all agreed on around an inch of rain for SA and Austin on next Tuesday and now the 12zs show pretty much nothing. Man I am really depressed now. So much for starting 2012 rainfall on a good note. Sigh.

[Portastorm]

I don't know about you guys, but I find the 12z models really depressing. The 0z CMC, Euro and GFS all agreed on around an inch of rain for SA and Austin on next Tuesday and now the 12zs show pretty much nothing. Man I am really depressed now. So much for starting 2012 rainfall on a good note. Sigh.

I wouldn't get too worked up over it. I still contend (and so does the venerable wxman57) that the models beyond 3-4 days are more unreliable this season due to some of the factors we've been talking about since November. And yes, this coming from the guy whose been yapping all morning about the GFS some 300 hours out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm driving up to Yellowknife, NT (Canada) next month from Houston... Can't wait to experience some true Arctic Air

[Portastorm]

Google Maps says it's a 59-hour, 3,140 mile drive. That is one serious road trip!

You will no doubt experience winter weather. We may all have to live vicariously through your trip.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yes it is... stopping to see my brother in Rapid City, SD then heading due north in a specially equipped winter vehicle.

I'm heading to diamond mine country and I'm going to drive the 250 miles north to the Arctic Circle one day.

[wxman57]

I don't know about you guys, but I find the 12z models really depressing. The 0z CMC, Euro and GFS all agreed on around an inch of rain for SA and Austin on next Tuesday and now the 12zs show pretty much nothing. Man I am really depressed now. So much for starting 2012 rainfall on a good note. Sigh.

I wouldn't get too worked up over it. I still contend (and so does the venerable wxman57) that the models beyond 3-4 days are more unreliable this season due to some of the factors we've been talking about since November. And yes, this coming from the guy whose been yapping all morning about the GFS some 300 hours out.

That's what I'm counting on, Portastorm. So far, the event is beyond all but the long-range GFS. It's the only model indicating a ridge popping over Alaska at around 300 hrs. In another 2-3 days the event moves into the range of the Euro and Canadian, so we'll see if there is any agreement, or if the GFS changes its mind by then about the cold (I can hope).

One good thing (for me) is that the projected U.S. snow cover is only forecast to be down to about northern Nebraska when the GFS has the cold air coming down. That should allow for significantly more modification than last year's cold, when the snow line was down to the Red River. Might mean upper 20s (27-29) for southeast TX vs low 20s.

[Big O]

That's what I'm counting on, Portastorm. So far, the event is beyond all but the long-range GFS. It's the only model indicating a ridge popping over Alaska at around 300 hrs. In another 2-3 days the event moves into the range of the Euro and Canadian, so we'll see if there is any agreement, or if the GFS changes its mind by then about the cold (I can hope).

One good thing (for me) is that the projected U.S. snow cover is only forecast to be down to about northern Nebraska when the GFS has the cold air coming down. That should allow for significantly more modification than last year's cold, when the snow line was down to the Red River. Might mean upper 20s (27-29) for southeast TX vs low 20s.

Don't look now, but 240h 12z European is showing hints of a ridge popping over Canada:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15 ... an240h.gif

Now, if we can only get a +PNA, -EPO signal, we're in business.

[Ntxw]

Hm, I don't know about you guys but 12z Euro should at least give wxman a bit of worrying to do! It has a lot of amplification and more cold up north compared to it's previous runs. If the eastern Canadian height rise happens as depicted by it and other models, any cold air that builds will likely head south rather than east! In short, It begins support for the GFS pattern change!

A snippet of 228hr GFS 12z Ensembles



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And here it is a few frames later!



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[Palmer divide shadow]

Looks like the cold air has snuck into western canada.-21 along the front range in calgary.

[Ntxw]

To add into the pot, even though it's a moot point to project it and im cherry picking anyway today, the MJO forecast by the GFS family is getting out of the meager circle and into 5-6 which means it could be waking up! Euro clusters it similarly. Keep that pace going through 7-8 and Portastorm is in business.



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[wxman57]

Hm, I don't know about you guys but 12z Euro should at least give wxman a bit of worrying to do! It has a lot of amplification and more cold up north compared to it's previous runs. If the eastern Canadian height rise happens as depicted by it and other models, any cold air that builds will likely head south rather than east! In short, It begins support for the GFS pattern change!

I saw that, but what the image doesn't show you is what's coming in from the west. I'm looking at a hemispheric 500mb heights loop of the 12Z Euro. There's a very deep low just off the map that is starting to suppress the ridge at 240 hrs.