Texas Winter 2012-2013

[TexasF6]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 031500
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SLEET TO ENTIRE CWA.

[natlib]

I sent a message to Steve McCauley of WFAA last night asking about the possibility of a McFarland signature. He responded that strong cold fronts are indicated, but no true McFarland Signature. Cold air is not deep enough nor does it punch south far enough for a true McFarland.

[Portastorm]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 031500
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SLEET TO ENTIRE CWA.

Yep. NWS in New Braunfels is receiving reports of sleet in western San Antonio and areas just to the west of the city.

[TrekkerCC]

Perhaps someone posted this, but is this system (for tonight and tomorrow) similar to the one that that came out of nowhere the Friday right before the Super Bowl? I remember them saying not much chance of snow, then we got quite a bit. I guess the difference is that there is no Arctic air mass in place right now, but the path and such seem to be the same. Yes, No? Or am I just making this up............

Hey HockeyTX, the big difference between the last system and this system is that the low level of the atmosphere is expected to be dry. That most of the precipitation is going to evaporate before it reaches the ground. That's why FWD is not going for much impact in the DFW area. Now, sometimes, the models don't diagnose the situation correctly - our freak "snowstorm" in February 2011 was such a case, but don't get your hopes up unless two or three inches of snow starts accumulating.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

There's a chance I will be setting up our Cotton Bowl tailgate in a sleet/snow mix early tomorrow morning.

Bring it on! Nothing quite like some Cold Weather Tailgating... sure beats 90 plus degree tailgating.

[Ntxw]

Getting a little ahead again (Don't I always), the GFS is changing again for the big storm early next week towards the other guidance. It's plunging the trough much deeper than previous runs, and may have some semblance to the wide scope of weather much like the Christmas storm.

[Portastorm]

Winter Weather Advisory just hoisted by the NWS for the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
952 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. WITH COLD
AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN AS A
MIXTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY AROUND 10
PM AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON. BEFORE THE
CHANGE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND
ONE INCH WITH A FEW SPOTS HAVING A BIT MORE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.

VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...
KERRVILLE
952 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW UP TO ONE INCH WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL BREAK OFF
WEAK TREE BRANCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[CaptinCrunch]

I sent a message to Steve McCauley of WFAA last night asking about the possibility of a McFarland signature. He responded that strong cold fronts are indicated, but no true McFarland Signature. Cold air is not deep enough nor does it punch south far enough for a true McFarland.

I have a lot of respect for Steve McCauley, but he is sometime real wish washy on his reply's. When I posted on his FB page about what I expected to happen for the Xmas day snow event (2-4" snow cover for DFW) he said the models didn't support it. Then on Xmas when I posted again on his page with his repley and said mine as well as those on this site (Storm2K) had a better idea and amounts based off model data and trends, he deleted that post as well as my original post.

He doesn't mind questions on weather events, but don't try and post your idea or thoughts on a weather event, or you will get deleted. Only his forecast and the NWS could be correct, not some amature off a well known weather fourm.

[DonWrk]

I sent a message to Steve McCauley of WFAA last night asking about the possibility of a McFarland signature. He responded that strong cold fronts are indicated, but no true McFarland Signature. Cold air is not deep enough nor does it punch south far enough for a true McFarland.

I have a lot of respect for Steve McCauley, but he is sometime real wish washy on his reply's. When I posted on his FB page about what I expected to happen for the Xmas day snow event (2-4" snow cover for DFW) he said the models didn't support it. Then on Xmas when I posted again on his page with his repley and said mine as well as those on this site (Storm2K) had a better idea and amounts based off model data and trends, he deleted that post as well as my original post.

He doesn't mind questions on weather events, but don't try and post your idea or thoughts on a weather event, or you will get deleted. Only his forecast and the NWS could be correct, not some amature off a well known weather fourm.

Wow, I wouldn't really expect that from him, but I understand his reasoning. Wish I would have seen that post!

[wxman57]

I sent a message to Steve McCauley of WFAA last night asking about the possibility of a McFarland signature. He responded that strong cold fronts are indicated, but no true McFarland Signature. Cold air is not deep enough nor does it punch south far enough for a true McFarland.

I agree, nothing extreme indicated at this time. Cold, yes, but nothing like any of the major Arctic outbreaks of the past ('83, '89, etc.).

[Texas Snowman]

I sent a message to Steve McCauley of WFAA last night asking about the possibility of a McFarland signature. He responded that strong cold fronts are indicated, but no true McFarland Signature. Cold air is not deep enough nor does it punch south far enough for a true McFarland.

Funny how he has freely tossed around the term in previous winters. But HE was the one tossing it around first, before anyone else in town. Weather guys on the tube sometimes have egos it would seem.

[Portastorm]

I sent a message to Steve McCauley of WFAA last night asking about the possibility of a McFarland signature. He responded that strong cold fronts are indicated, but no true McFarland Signature. Cold air is not deep enough nor does it punch south far enough for a true McFarland.

Funny how he has freely tossed around the term in previous winters

I personally believe it is a term used way too often, kinda like the word "annular" when describing a hurricane. McFarland Signatures are severe in scope in terms of the kind of freezing temperatures they are capable of delivering into Texas. They don't happen often but when they do, look out!

Some of yesterday's models definitely "looked" like or similiar to a McFarland signature but folks should take that with a grain of salt this far out. As Wxman57 has taught us in previous winters, one must look at the source regions for the cold as well as the predicted 500mb flow pattern. You can have a full latitude trough over the Central US, delivering cold air from the north down into Texas, but if the source region temperartures aren't all that cold (compared to norms), that it's not a major deal.

[Comanche]

[Texas Snowman]

Even Fort Worth is looking down the road at potential cold...

"OTHERWISE...LONG RANGE MODEL
DATA SHOWS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS TYPE OF
SET-UP MAY PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST RANGE...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST HOW COLD."

[Ntxw]

I sent a message to Steve McCauley of WFAA last night asking about the possibility of a McFarland signature. He responded that strong cold fronts are indicated, but no true McFarland Signature. Cold air is not deep enough nor does it punch south far enough for a true McFarland.

Funny how he has freely tossed around the term in previous winters

I personally believe it is a term used way too often, kinda like the word "annular" when describing a hurricane. McFarland Signatures are severe in scope in terms of the kind of freezing temperatures they are capable of delivering into Texas. They don't happen often but when they do, look out!

Some of yesterday's models definitely "looked" like or similiar to a McFarland signature but folks should take that with a grain of salt this far out. As Wxman57 has taught us in previous winters, one must look at the source regions for the cold as well as the predicted 500mb flow pattern. You can have a full latitude trough over the Central US, delivering cold air from the north down into Texas, but if the source region temperartures aren't all that cold (compared to norms), that it's not amajor deal.

Well said Portastorm. As I mentioned to bigb in a post yesterday, those events are rare and probably will not happen. But it is fun and educative to discuss since even in the modelling world showing a set up of that nature is unusual

[Snowluvr]

Are today's model runs still showing potential for severe cold in the long range?

[Ntxw]

Are today's model runs still showing potential for severe cold in the long range?

They do. The 12z GFS and ensembles extend the -EPO ridge from the Pacific up through Alaska into the Arctic, even Siberia. Which is plainly ridiculous. Take it with a grain of salt though. Very cold air is likely to move into the conus regardless in the not so distant future, with the west and plains taking the brunt. East coast is a little more uncertain.

[Snowluvr]

Thanks, NTXW, your knowledge and input are much appreciated.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

They can call it what they want as long as it brings home the bacon!

Personally id go with full latitude trough though and yes there isnt much cold air pooling in the models it seems, but if it came from Siberia.....

This weather is distracting me from my work!

Lolol

[Ntxw]

12z NAM's forecast for the snow