Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

But wouldn’t that help us get more of a snow event vs an ice event? If the precipitation is even there

If you can get a disturbance to take advantage like STS mentioned. But they like to ride the warm/cold battle zone, that's why there is usually a big storm as cold air mass comes in, and when it lifts out but few between. If you look back at some of the great cold snaps (like 1983 and 1989) they were mostly dry. Too cold.

yeah, the snowstorm the other week, the temps were extremely marginal and had a sharp cutoff east of here between insane historic totals and no snow where it never changed over

extreme cold rarely ever gets a big storm. That's one reason I kind of don't care about extreme cold unless its with a snow cover.

[Cpv17]

But wouldn’t that help us get more of a snow event vs an ice event? If the precipitation is even there

If you can get a disturbance to take advantage like STS mentioned. But they like to ride the warm/cold battle zone, that's why there is usually a big storm as cold air mass comes in, and when it lifts out but few between. If you look back at some of the great cold snaps (like 1983 and 1989) they were mostly dry. Too cold.

yeah, the snowstorm the other week, the temps were extremely marginal and had a sharp cutoff east of here between insane historic totals and no snow where it never changed over

extreme cold rarely ever gets a big storm. That's one reason I kind of don't care about extreme cold unless its with a snow cover.

So basically get a foot of snow first followed by some really cold air. That’d be ideal.

[Brent]

If you can get a disturbance to take advantage like STS mentioned. But they like to ride the warm/cold battle zone, that's why there is usually a big storm as cold air mass comes in, and when it lifts out but few between. If you look back at some of the great cold snaps (like 1983 and 1989) they were mostly dry. Too cold.

yeah, the snowstorm the other week, the temps were extremely marginal and had a sharp cutoff east of here between insane historic totals and no snow where it never changed over

extreme cold rarely ever gets a big storm. That's one reason I kind of don't care about extreme cold unless its with a snow cover.

So basically get a foot of snow first followed by some really cold air. That’d be ideal.

didn't quite get a foot but I was still in Alabama during the infamous 2014 snow that crippled Atlanta, lived in a rural small town away from the cities, got about 4 inches, and briefly dipped to around zero degrees the night after. It was amazing lol I went outside to stand in the snow covered street to take so many pictures lol

that was actually the only snowstorm I've seen where temps were bordering on extreme... it was in the low 20s and snowing which was unheard of over there(and a big part of the reason the cities got crippled)

[missygirl810]

yeah, the snowstorm the other week, the temps were extremely marginal and had a sharp cutoff east of here between insane historic totals and no snow where it never changed over

extreme cold rarely ever gets a big storm. That's one reason I kind of don't care about extreme cold unless its with a snow cover.

So basically get a foot of snow first followed by some really cold air. That’d be ideal.

didn't quite get a foot but I was still in Alabama during the infamous 2014 snow that crippled Atlanta, lived in a rural small town away from the cities, got about 4 inches, and briefly dipped to around zero degrees the night after. It was amazing lol I went outside to stand in the snow covered street to take so many pictures lol

that was actually the only snowstorm I've seen where temps were bordering on extreme... it was in the low 20s and snowing which was unheard of over there(and a big part of the reason the cities got crippled)

I remember that, I lived in Arkansas then and SNL did a sketch about it lol.

[Brent]

Euro looking like the GFS at 144 boo lol

Not that I'm surprised

[Ntxw]

Big high on Euro. Cold air to the north again descending. If it weren't for the wintry precip runs earlier this would be the news story.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah another major dump of Arctic air poised to spill southward out of Canada this run. If we can get that trough to hang back a bit farther west than the models are indicating, we could see some wintry precip threats show up in the guidance again.

[Brent]

so the trend tonight is Friday/Saturday would be less cold(probably more like the other cold snaps this winter, DFW is pushing 50 both days), then turn colder for Christmas. We'll see if there's any precip

[Ntxw]

1061mb at 168 hours in W Can, intense cold air is moving south

[Brent]

arctic front Christmas Eve. DFW high around 40. Dry.

[Ntxw]

I've never seen such a sprawling high pressure system modeled before. We had a few near 1060mb 384 hr GFS runs in 2013-2014, but never this close and that large and only in reanalysis...

[Brent]

well a cold Christmas looks like a good bet Mid 20s Christmas morning at DFW and it was too warm with the last cold... highs struggle to the mid 30s Christmas Day.

Now let's work on precip

[Lagreeneyes03]

Winter storm in north TX on the GFS the day before New Years Eve.

Despite the bad model trends today, the potential is certainly there for a winter wx system at some point. The 12z Euro EPS actually increased the chances for winter wx across N. Texas over the next two weeks, even as it decreased the chances of a big Christmas system.

Well that's kind of the scenario we had for next weekend...about 5 days ago...so that, too may very well turn out to be a whole lot of nothing, right?

[South Texas Storms]

Euro doesn't show much in the way of any winter storms with the surge of very cold air.

[Ntxw]

Euro doesn't show much in the way of any winter storms with the surge of very cold air.

That kind of cold push would quash everything way into the gulf of Mexico.

[Brent]

DFW 850 temps -10 C the morning after Christmas

Can't say I'm surprised it's dry

day after Tuesday DFW just barely makes freezing

[South Texas Storms]

Euro doesn't show much in the way of any winter storms with the surge of very cold air.

That kind of cold push would quash everything way into the gulf of Mexico.

Yeah that's what I'm afraid of. I hope it doesn't get so cold where there isn't any moisture to work with.

Tonight's models haven't been kind to those who want snow. It's still about a week away so hopefully we see more changes in the models over the next few days.

[South Texas Storms]

Although the end of the Euro run looks interesting. Disturbance approaching from the west with the cold air holding in place.

[Ntxw]

Euro doesn't show much in the way of any winter storms with the surge of very cold air.

That kind of cold push would quash everything way into the gulf of Mexico.

Yeah that's what I'm afraid of. I hope it doesn't get so cold where there isn't any moisture to work with.

Tonight's models haven't been kind to those who want snow. It's still about a week away so hopefully we see more changes in the models over the next few days.

If we can get this weekend's system to phase with the vorticity that comes in via Christmas it's still a possibility. Or if it cuts off early. But with the massive cold dome, I think the cutoff scenario is becoming less likely. So the models are starting to grasp the real cold slowly, thus we start to lose on the precip side.

Lots can change obviously, could still ring out leading edge snow from Arctic front as a hail mary?

[South Texas Storms]

My hope is that the models back off a bit from the major cold and that allows a disturbance and moisture to hold back and possibly bring us some wintry precip. Plenty of time still to watch.