Texas Winter 2023-2024

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ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2241 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:27 am

Tammie wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
vxskaxv wrote:As a Dedicated volunteer first responder who preps to do my thing and assist those in great need, I find zero humor in any of the supposed humor posts in this thread. I’m not trying to hate on anyone here but I’d like to see way less crud like post #2220 and more of the serious conversation posts.

This impending Arctic system has the means to affect millions across the US and obviously there will be tragedies and property damage for some and once again see no humor in this current situation. I get the need to throw out bits of humorous verbiage occasionally to break up the discussion but this is not the right topic thread for such behavior.

Countless groups and businesses and individuals are out preparing homes and infrastructures as I speak at their expenses and worrying about their fellow neighbors and families and friends in multiple locations. My personal list is huge of things I need to do and help others get ready for and one of the aforementioned things is that of a dear friend that has a daughter-in-law that is very near pregnancy completion in the Conroe area. And god forbid that this system takes power out at her place and the roads are difficult to navigate from and ice or sleet it’s going to be important to get to her to keep her and the future kiddo warm immediately. We all remember too well what transpired in 2021 in Texas.

Please keep the seriousness of this conversation at the forefront and post good informative content only. I pray for everyone’s health and property here and wish everyone the best over the next several days.
:flag:

This board is actively moderated to keep posts within reasonable discussion. Personally, I don’t see anything out of line. If you don’t like a post or poster, you have the ability to mute them by clicking their profile and adding them as a “foe”.


As a mother of 8 and a grandmother of 18, all of whom reside in Texas, no one takes these weather predictions more seriously than I do. I lost a son in February of last year during inclement weather in Fort Worth. He died on impact (the accident was not his fault).

vxskaxv, While I appreciate your role as a “volunteer first responder”, last year the world lost an army vet, I lost a child, and my 14-year-old grand daughter lost her daddy. I know better than most that sometimes, humor is the best form of medicine.

While your concerns over the upcoming event is palpable, calling out the poster on #2220 is not. I am in 100% agreement with cheezyWXguy‘s response to you. The moderators have a job to do, and they do it consistently and their efforts are above reproach.

We have a certain comradery on this forum due to the length of time most of us have spent here. I know it’s acceptable to make fun of a certain Houston Heat Miser cyclist, and nobody (including him) is going to be offended. We can laugh at wonky model runs and get nervous when we think it’s a valid run. We all know the potential seriousness of the upcoming event. We are also very passionate about alerting others of the potential risks. In my opinion, Storm2K is exemplary. If vxskaxv finds our humor distasteful, feel free to hop off.

All that being said, as I approach the one year anniversary of my son’s death, a note to my Storm2K family: Don’t change a thing!



My condolences. You are a strong woman to see humor as medicine and I pray for your family and grandkids.

Thank you for the post.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2242 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:36 am

.LONG TERM... /Issued 353 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/
/This Weekend Through Mid Week/


Key Points:

--Timing of arrival of true arctic air and by when you should have
taken cold weather precautions.

--Coldest airmass by far of this Winter season.

--Gusty northerly winds after arctic airmass arrives and
subsequent wind chill values Sunday through Tuesday.

--Probability, location, uncertainty of wintry precipitation
amongst models, and accumulations (if any).


I think by now we believe it`s a forgone conclusion that
temperatures are going to take a major dive later this weekend
into early next week. If anyone remembers February 2021, we`ve
seen what impacts a prolonged period of extremely cold weather can
cause here in North-Central Texas, or the entire state for that
matter.

Friday night through early afternoon Saturday, I have kept the
forecast static and with persistence from the previous forecast.
A significant arctic cold front will arrive over the upcoming
weekend leading to much colder weather through early next week,
along with low chances for a wintry mix. The first shallow polar
airmass (not extremely cold) encompasses the area Friday night,
before shifting south across the Texas/Louisiana Coasts Saturday,
as we remain under fast, low amplitude cyclonic flow aloft.

Saturday will begin with temperatures in the mid 20s/lower 30s,
before southerly winds veer southwest, then west just in advance
of our initial arctic blast surging across the Red River and
toward the I-20/30 corridors mid-late afternoon. This is a good
12-24 hours sooner than previously advertised by the NBM and most
models. Now that the NAM12 is a player through this period, I
have added an emphasis toward frontal passage and temperatures
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, though I did so with blend
of the NBM/ECMWF numbers. This leading edge of this airmass will
likely be shallow 1-2 kft looking at 925mb-850mb thermal forecasts.
Such shallow arctic surges are rarely directly impacted by the
mid level height falls associated with successive shortwave
impulses. It`s usually shear density currents and pressure rises
that win out and which tend to supersede even the most robust
models within the lower levels which makes timing and temperatures
quite challenging. With the late day arrival, the NBM still looks
representative with highs 55-60 degrees south of the I-20/30
corridors. Meanwhile, temperatures Saturday afternoon will fall
quickly into the 40s northwest of a Breckenridge-Decatur-Bonham
line.

Probabilities of temperatures at/below freezing by 6 pm will
be upwards to 40% along the Red River and 15-20% near Hwy
380/I-30, and less than 10% along I-20 including the DFW Metro.
This just shows how progressive and dense this airmass will be and
can catch those late Saturday off guard. The arctic front and
frigid airmass will proceed quickly southward Saturday night with
quite the shock of a dramatic temperature change with lows falling
into the teens and lower 20s across North Texas (75% probability
Red River to 30% I-20/DFW). Most of Central Texas falls well below
freezing except possibly Milam, Robertson, and Leon counties
(similar percentiles as seen with the 20 degree or lower seen
across North TX). Throw in gusty/blustery northerly winds of 15 to
20 mph and you can expect wind chill values by sunrise Sunday
between 3 below zero and 8 above zero across North Texas, and
between 8 above zero and 19 above zero in Central Texas. Needless
to say, we are getting into "dangerous cold" territory and if one
MUST be outdoors, limiting skin exposure and wearing several
layers to insulate one`s body is STRONGLY recommended.

Another rule of thumb with arctic airmasses is they tend to be
much more resistant to mixing and sunshine/insolation which won`t
be much to worry about Sunday, but more so later Monday into
Tuesday and even Wednesday to an extent. A second arctic surge
arrives by Sunday night and right about the time a strong mid
level impulse moves east out of the Southern Rockies/High Plains
and across Sunday night and Monday morning. Though deterministic
00z runs of the ECWMF/GFS show the potential for widespread and
very light wintry precip, the NBM and ensemble clusters don`t
necessarily agree with this solution. This results in much more
uncertainty regarding not only winter precipitation "types", but
also probabilities and/or accumulations if applicable to these
trends.


It was agreed upon per active collaboration with surrounding
offices this far out to lean toward the NBM and GEFS/EPS ensembles
and not go "whole hog" on a winter weather event. Needless to
say, high confidence and probabilities with temperatures with the
arctic air intrusion, but way less so with winter precipitation,
location, etc. As such, I have left mostly slight chance wording
for wintry precipitation to primarily those counties east of I-35
Sunday night and Monday. The main message remains the dangerous
cold and wind chills for a prolonged period of time upward of 3
days or 72 hours Sunday through Tuesday and impacts that can
result from such a long-term period such as water mains, sprinkler
systems, internal plumbing, and power outages. Lows Monday and
Tuesday mornings will be single digits and teens, with only a
slight modification to the teens to lower 20s Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, diurnal ranges are very limited, especially after
successive surges and deepening of the arctic air with highs
primarily in the upper teens and 20s Monday and Tuesday (which
still may be on the optimistic side) to finally an end in sight
Wednesday as erosion of the arctic air ensues with deeper
southerly flow and highs rebounding in the 40s to possibly low 50s
across the immediate Big Country in the far West.

Please be setting those cold weather plans in place now. Wouldn`t
hurt to have a few candles and fresh water handy if power were to
go out for any period of time, and to have those heavy coats,
long johns, or any other layers of warm clothing ready to go if
you must go out during this prolonged period of very cold weather
forthcoming. Stay warm North-Central Texas!

05/Marty
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2243 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:40 am

Overnight 10 degree probability from NWS seems to show them trending warmer. Moved 50 percent north of DFW again. Still cold.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2244 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:50 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Overnight 10 degree probability from NWS seems to show them trending warmer. Still cold.


There will be many locations in the single digits, including where I am which sits in kinda low area, most always 2-3 degrees colder :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2245 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:53 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 458 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Thursday will be our last day of warm weather for the foreseeable
future, as multiple cold fronts are expected to push across the
region through next week (more on this in the long term). For today,
it should be partly cloudy and breezy with highs largely in the 70s.
Overall very pleasant weather, so be sure to enjoy it while it
lasts, as we won`t have the wait long for it to come to an end.

Another mid/upper level trough will sweep across the
Central/Southern Plains Tonight. The associated surface low near the
TX/OK Panhandle should track NE overnight, draping a strong cold
front across SE Texas during the early morning hours of Friday.
Dynamics with this FROPA still look fairly strong, with a 40-50 knot
LLJ progged to slide in overhead ahead of the FROPA. 6KM Bulk Shear
looks to be in excess of 70 knots region-wide, capping out at 95
knots further N/NW as the front pushes through. Instability remains
rather low as noted in previous forecasts, with MU CAPE ranging from
200-800 J/KG. A robust capping inversion still looks to be in place
around 850mb-700mb during the overnight hours. Cooling aloft may
help erode this cap to some degree prior to the front`s arrival, but
it should greatly limit shower/storm development ahead of the cold
front. HREF members show a thin line of storms developing with the
FROPA, with simulated reflectivity & line cohesion greatest in areas
north of the I-10 corridor. The front will also be moving very
quickly, passing Collage Station around 1-3 AM, the Houston area
around 3-5 AM and offshore by 6 AM. SPC still has portions of the
Piney Woods/Lake Livingston area under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe weather during this period, with the rest of SE Texas under a
marginal (level 1/5) Risk. The primary threats from these storms
still look to be damaging winds and hail.

Friday will feature cold, dry and windy conditions behind the cold
front. Winds behind the front will be around 20-25 MPH with gusts up
to 40 MPH possible. Therefore, a Wind Advisory will be in effect
from early Friday morning through late Friday afternoon. Even with
clear skies, highs will top out in the 50s during the day. Lows
temperatures heading into Saturday morning will be in the mid
20s/mid 30s inland and upper 30s/lower 40s near the coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 458 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Saturday will be a dry transition day with slightly warmer
conditions as high pressure moves off to the east and we see a
brief return flow from the Gulf. Attention then turns to the
Arctic frontal passage.

We are starting to see the front coming into range on the latest
NAM12 runs. While not perfect, this typically does fairly well
with the cold, dense Arctic airmasses compared to some of the other
available guidance at this point in time. The 00z run has the
leading edge of the front approaching northern parts of the CWA
during the overnight hours Saturday. The 6z run was similar, and
with the extra added time period, has the boundary at or off the
coast by sunrise Sunday. If so, this has significant implications
for planned outdoor events...and also overall winterization
preparation times. Given its past track record, we are going to
give this guidance particularly more weight than some of the
others in regards to timing and temps and have made some
considerable downward adjustments for the daytime hours Sunday.
Disclaimer:
given that we have only had 2 runs to view...there is a much
higher than normal temp bust potential for this forecast package
than others you`ll probably see going forward. In addition to the
NAM12, we`ll begin seeing some other hires models begin coming
into view as well.

Other than daytime adjustments on Sunday...the rest of the fcst
remains very similar to what you`ve already seen advertised into
the middle of next week (hard freezes, some locations seeing the
potential for longer duration time period of readings <32, bitter
wind chills, etc). Residents are encouraged to complete outdoor
home/business preparations by Saturday evening.

In regards to winter precip: chances still appear on the low end
that we see much of significance - but not zero. Keeping an eye
across northern areas Sunday night where the tail end of precip
might try to clip it. Also, further south by early Monday where a
disturbance, possibly rooted in the H7 flow, might try to move in
from the southwest as a few models (0z GFS & UKMET) have been intermittently
hinting at. Forecast soundings indicate light freezing rain or
freezing drizzle would be what we`d be looking at where surface
readings are below freezing. Overall low chances of about 20% look
reasonable for now.

A subtle warm-up is anticipated Wed & Thurs...but might see
another fairly significant cold front next Fri or so. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Expect MVFR to LIFR conditions early today from a mix of
patchy/areas of fog and CIGS near 1500-2500 ft. VFR conditions
return during the late morning/early afternoon as gusty southerly
winds develop region-wide. A strong LLJ ahead of a cold front
Thursday evening may produce wind shear tonight. MVFR CIGS may
develop overnight ahead of the front. The cold front itself
should quickly move across SE Texas during the early morning hours
of Friday, approaching KCLL just before midnight, then pushing
offshore before sunrise. Gusty W/NW winds and clear skies
developing in it`s wake.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 458 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Onshore winds will increase later today and tonight ahead of the
next cold front that will be pushing off the coast between 3 am
and 6 am Friday. Small Craft Advisories will probably be required
by this evening for onshore winds and building seas.

Sustained northwest winds in the 25 to 35 knot range are expected
behind the front, with gusts well above gale force. Ongoing Gale
Watch will likely need to be upgraded to a Warning later today.
Strong WNW-NW winds will also bring significant low water levels
in the bays on Friday (PETSS guidance showing -2 to -3 MLLW). A
Low Water Advisory will likely be needed.

Onshore winds resume Saturday followed by the passage of a
strong Arctic cold front on Sunday. Timing is uncertain, but it
could be as early as sunrise Sunday. Much colder and breezy
conditions will prevail behind this front well into next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 40 52 31 / 10 60 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 50 56 34 / 20 60 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 55 60 43 / 20 50 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CST Friday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ176-177-
195>199-210>213-226-227-235>237.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM CST Friday
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2246 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:56 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Overnight 10 degree probability from NWS seems to show them trending warmer. Still cold.


There will be many locations in the single digits, including where I am which sits in kinda low area, most always 2-3 degrees colder :cold:


I'm much colder than DFW usually, too. I bet I see them. Just a note on their graphic change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2247 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:13 am

Ntxw wrote:One thing is converging. Frontal passage for NTX is Sat evening/night. Quickly falls through to teens well before disturbance comes. Any qpf for sure is frozen.

Most of Central TX is too on Euro, below freezing.


On the 06z Euro, the TPV pushed a bit farther south, which pushes everything south. The 06z GFS does something similar, but it also changes the jet streak orientation. In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if the baroclinic zone ends up farther south along with the precip.

The 06z GFS but it dose have some of this on the southern edge fall as freezing rain/sleet.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2248 Postby Tammie » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:19 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Tammie wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:This board is actively moderated to keep posts within reasonable discussion. Personally, I don’t see anything out of line. If you don’t like a post or poster, you have the ability to mute them by clicking their profile and adding them as a “foe”.


As a mother of 8 and a grandmother of 18, all of whom reside in Texas, no one takes these weather predictions more seriously than I do. I lost a son in February of last year during inclement weather in Fort Worth. He died on impact (the accident was not his fault).

vxskaxv, While I appreciate your role as a “volunteer first responder”, last year the world lost an army vet, I lost a child, and my 14-year-old grand daughter lost her daddy. I know better than most that sometimes, humor is the best form of medicine.

While your concerns over the upcoming event is palpable, calling out the poster on #2220 is not. I am in 100% agreement with cheezyWXguy‘s response to you. The moderators have a job to do, and they do it consistently and their efforts are above reproach.

We have a certain comradery on this forum due to the length of time most of us have spent here. I know it’s acceptable to make fun of a certain Houston Heat Miser cyclist, and nobody (including him) is going to be offended. We can laugh at wonky model runs and get nervous when we think it’s a valid run. We all know the potential seriousness of the upcoming event. We are also very passionate about alerting others of the potential risks. In my opinion, Storm2K is exemplary. If vxskaxv finds our humor distasteful, feel free to hop off.

All that being said, as I approach the one year anniversary of my son’s death, a note to my Storm2K family: Don’t change a thing!



My condolences. You are a strong woman to see humor as medicine and I pray for your family and grandkids.

Thank you for the post.


Thank you so much for the kind words.
Tammie
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2249 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:58 am

I wouldn't be surprised if the stormtrack took a sudden North or South path last second. Like in Jan21. Although model trend has locked it down enough to get a picture
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Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2250 Postby WacoWx » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:58 am

Any models showing the s/w slowing down??
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2251 Postby Anti-freeze » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:07 am

Bad timing for the NWS website to lose most of its functions. I've got a bookmark to a location so can still (for now) get the local temp and forecast, but can't get days 3+ of the hourly forecast graphs, can't get other locations by either "Click on map for forecast" or from the maps on the regional or national pages, nor by searching by place name.

An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.e83b2f17.1704985525.eff88576

An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.ef3b2f17.1704985548.90974e6

An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.e83b2f17.1704985575.effa33f1

etc. Tried in both Chrome and Brave.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2252 Postby snowballzzz » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:12 am

GFS, CMC, Euro and ICON seem to be on the same page for the most part, now. Eastern OK still seems to get the brunt of the snow but would not surprise me to see the snow line creeping further south. Almost time to start watching the NAM. :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2253 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:12 am

As expected, NAM more than likely has a better handle on the arctic air advancement into the state. Big differences in timing with the globals (even the ICON) and thus will have huge impacts on any precip that falls further south.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2254 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:13 am

WacoWx wrote:Any models showing the s/w slowing down??


The past 24 hour trend is to slow it down.

Baroclinic zone (high gradient and depth of cold air) mentioned by Bubba is important. For pretend example if the cold was significantly further south (hundreds of miles) than shown on x-model then what's in Oklahoma would be in Texas. If it was significantly warmer (hundreds of miles) then it would be Kansas.

Systems traverse the gradient.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2255 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:29 am

ICON is running colder than it's 0z run. This is for Sunday. I'm not sure using a 'blend' approach mix of warm and cold is a good idea in an anomalous outbreak.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2256 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:32 am

I’m wondering what we could see in the Victoria area as far as freezing drizzle… I drive an hour and half to work to La Vernia everyday. Do we think the precip will show back up for my area or does it look like it dropped the ice… euro switched with no ice last night
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2257 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:35 am

FWIW FV3 Hi res is even faster than NAM with front passing DFW by noon Saturday, and near freezing by nightfall.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2258 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:48 am

My wife has a client involved with the FW rodeo and the parade is Saturday. I hope the front holds off until after the parade. I frankly had no concerns of this until now. Lol.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2259 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:53 am

rwfromkansas wrote:My wife has a client involved with the FW rodeo and the parade is Saturday. I hope it holds off until after the parade. I frankly had no concerns of this until now. Lol.

It could turn cold by Saturday evening for sure but precip will not begin until Sunday.
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txtwister78
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Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2260 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:54 am

jaguars_22 wrote:I’m wondering what we could see in the Victoria area as far as freezing drizzle… I drive an hour and half to work to La Vernia everyday. Do we think the precip will show back up for my area or does it look like it dropped the ice… euro switched with no ice last night


I think odds are you're going to be dealing with much colder temps faster than some of the models show as I mentioned above and so will have to watch precip Sunday into Sunday night and possibly early Monday morning.
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