Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Yeah, a lot of people think it's safer to drive on snow than sleet or freezing rain. They forget how cold it really is now and that the roads were actually wet most of the day that's turning to ice.

[ColdFusion]

If anyone else cares to listen to the traffic mayhem, here's the link to most dallas area online police feeds.
http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?mid=2

[HockeyTx82]

So the Christmas Eve snow event of 2009 will go down as one to remember. You know a few weeks back when the models were showing a "White Christmas" and then took it away then put it back and so on, deep down I had a feeling that this was the year. I told my mom and grandma around the 15th of Decemeber for Christmas I am going to promise them snow.....

And look what happened

Anyhow, just wanted to say this board has been a huge help and fun to be a part of. The roller coaster ride of model watching is something I have come to enjoy.

And to everyone reading this Merry Christmas!!!!

P.S. Denton got dumped on and the wind was crazy, for a moment there I thougt that I had woken up in North Dakota or something........

[gofrogs]

whats the new gfs saying for north texas or all of texas any highlights.

[Ntxw]

whats the new gfs saying for north texas or all of texas any highlights.

0z gfs tonight shows wintry precip possible once again along and north of I-20 early to middle of next week. Doesn't show much moisture return though so probably not much. Too far out to say exactly what and where. Should get a better idea going into the weekend.

Merry Christmas to everyone

[txagwxman]

Looks like another major Arctic front for New Years Day for Texas. ECMWF/GEM models both in agreement. GFS is lagging.

[gofrogs]

Any precip to go along with it.

[gofrogs]

Hey guys the gfs brought the new years eve/ day storm back.

[txagwxman]

850 mb temps are borderline cold enough for snow on Tue/Wed west of DFW. Thickness 546 west of DFW...most precip is south at least on the latest GFS....should be a cold rain...but watch carefully. Could be in the 30s all day CLL/UTS/AUS/LFK/DWH with rain. ECMWF 850 mb temps are near 0C just west of DFW with temps in the mid 30s.

[orangeblood]

With the snow cover to our north, I would suspect that those temps will be colder than models currently indicate. This is going to be a tough forecast. In regards to the new years storm, the GFS is going to be crap even under 84 hours. It has trouble handling energy from both jet streams.

[srainhoutx]

Merry Christmas Folks...

[txagwxman]

ECMWF COLD HERE JAN 1-2...pipe buster.

Looking more ominous for Tuesday, 2m temps are below freezing ACT to DFW with frozen precip.

[srainhoutx]

A lot of uncertainty remains regarding the storm system prior to New Years Eve. The GFS suggests a warmer scenario while the new ECMWF has flipped from previous runs to suggest much cooler air will become involved as the storm develops. We'll need to watch in the days ahead as there does appear some much colder air will enter the CONUS behind the storm. We shall see. HPC Final Extended disco...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
123 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

VALID 12Z MON DEC 28 2009 - 12Z FRI JAN 01 2010

IF YOU THINK THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS FAMILIAR... IT SHOULD.
WITH GENERAL RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN CANADA... THE MEAN
TROUGH THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LIE MID-CONTINENT THOUGH SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A POLAR VORTEX OVER NUNAVUT. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT... THE GULF
LOW SHOULD BE GUIDED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHEAST
COAST TO NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY THE FIRST OF THE YEAR... IN
A MOVE PERHAPS SIMILAR TO THE CYCLONE THAT MOVED OUT OF THE GULF
AND UP THE EAST COAST THIS TIME LAST WEEK WHICH LED TO THE CURRENT
EASTERN US SNOW COVER... EVEN THOUGH THE EXPECTED PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THESE IDEAS.

THE 00-06Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW SIMILAR IDEAS
THROUGH ABOUT TUE/D4... BUT THEN PART WAYS. THE GFS AND ITS FAMILY
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A QUICKER/LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW THAN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FAMILY OF ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE LOWER 48...
FIRST STEMMING FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
MEXICO AND THEN DUE TO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN VORTEX
INTERACTION/SEPARATION THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO HANDLE
DIFFERENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
HOLDING THE MAIN VORTEX OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND DROPPING
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS
SIMPLY DEEPENS THE MAIN VORTEX NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES MAY HAVE ROOM FOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION
BUT JUST NOT YET. BROUGHT IN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
ESPECIALLY BY THU-FRI/D6-7 TO TONE DOWN THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR NOW UNTIL THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS
A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT FOR A CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS VERIFIED QUITE WELL IN RECENT MONTHS AND
SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCORPORATE IT QUITE DELIBERATELY BY FRI/D7.
THIS KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT ISSUANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...
WITH HIGH TEMPS 10F TO 20F BELOW CLIMO UNDER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

FOR THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF BY WED/D5... MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AND SWAY WITH EACH RUN... BUT STILL ADVERTISE SOMETHING
RIDING UP THE COAST ON NEW YEARS EVE/DAY. THE SYSTEM LAST WEEK
FACED A SIMILAR /OR WORSE/ DILEMMA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WAS NOT
WELL FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS OUT AT BEST. GIVEN A WETTER AND
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF RECENT EAST COAST SYSTEMS THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS SEVERAL DAYS OUT... THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR YET ANOTHER HOLIDAY TRAVEL MESS BUT FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY INSTEAD OF TODAYS MESS IN THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE US.
12Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET MAINTAIN THEIR 00Z THINKING. 06Z GFS
APPEARS TO BE AN ODD RUN. CONTINUED TO STAY THE COURSE FROM THE
EARLIER ISSUANCE.

ROTH/FRACASSO

[gofrogs]

Well have to ee what the models sday but iam really liking the storm coming up on tuesdeay and the new years day and eve time frame. Overall.

[Portastorm]

ECMWF COLD HERE JAN 1-2...pipe buster.

Looking more ominous for Tuesday, 2m temps are below freezing ACT to DFW with frozen precip.

I'm curious where you are seeing that? The 12z Euro run both on the Penn State Ewall site and San Jose State site shows 850mb temps above freezing for ACT to DFW on Tuesday and keeps the cold pocket in west Texas.

But you are right about what it shows for New Years Day and beyond ... has the Polar Vortex in the northern Great Lakes. That would bring some VERY cold air into Texas.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect changes as we get closer to Monday from many WFO's across TX. This will likely be another situation where changes will occur closer to the events than several day ahead of those events. As I've mentioned before in this Topic, we are entering into a very interesting time frame. The pattern that we are seeing looks close to 1967, 1972/73, and some 'hint's' of 1983 and 1989 analogs if you are into those. What complicates the situation is the setup is just abit different. We have a Central based Pacific El Nino event (entering into phase 8 ) rather than an El Nino closer to S America. There are suggestions tha another MJO pulse will head E from the Indian Ocean Regions toward the dateline. Add to the mix a continued -AO , -NOA, Greenland Blocking and another Polar Vortex event in the Great Lakes Region. The heights in the Arctic remain very high and some suggestions by the CPC Super Ensembles that this pattern will persist until Mid January. There is also a massive High in China/W Siberia that may slide across the N Pole during this time frame. We shall see, but bears watching IMHO.

[lrak]

Happy Holidays!

Great links and pictures!

Anyway during hurricane season around the beginning of August IIRC the Mex. and Gulf coast almost resembled an East coast in a normal fall pattern. Its sure a different season for summer and winter so far. Had all kinds of weird events during the 2009 hurricane season, so now its time to imagine all kinds weird events for this winter like todays kinda rare snow cold event. on a specific date.

Kind of nice having a volatile swing in the temperatures, rain, snow, and wind. We had the sides of a condo fall off during the holidays, crushed some cars and freaked a few out.


http://www.kristv.com/player/?video_id= ... egories=46 I was going to Port Aransas up 361 and noticed two holes on each side of the condo. My Dad and retired builder bets they used galvanized brick ties instead of stainless steel. Have you ever seen a 15-20 year old boat trailer, they always have SOME rust?

http://www.kristv.com/news/heavy-wind-r ... and-hotel/

[amawea]

Well the latest AFD out of Springfield, Mo is mentioning a cross polar flow event next weekend. Here's the part of it that mentions it at the end of the long range discussion.
FXUS63 KSGF 252352
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009


LONG WAVE CHARTS ARE SHOWING A
GOOD SIGNAL FOR CROSS POLAR FLOW SETTING UP. ARCTIC AIR WILL
LIKELY POOL UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THIS MAKES THE PLUNGE TOWARDS THE OZARKS LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

[Texas Snowman]

Merry Christmas everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful and blessed day celebrating Christ's birth with family, loved ones, and friends.

We finally got into the moderate snow action yesterday evening here in Sherman/Denison, about 2-inches of accumulation from 5 p.m. until 8 p.m. Very windy, near blizzard conditions at times around 7 p.m. Roads were bad, bad, bad in the Texoma region - one couple I know, it took them 2 hours to make a 20-minute drive home because of wrecks, jack-knifed semis, etc.

So, finally, we had a White Christmas this morning!!! What a blessing, what a treat for my wife, my kids, and me!

Local TV met (Steve LaNore on KXII-TV) indicated that 4" fell in Whitesboro (western Grayson County); 9" fell at Moss Lake (west/northwest of Gainesville by about 10 miles); 5" in Gainesville; 9" in Nocona (Montague County); and only a trace at Bonham (30 miles east of me in Fannin County). He also said DFW set a 12/24 record with 3" of snowfall. (Hadn't heard that until he reported it)

Amazing reports from OKC where the 14.1" broke their 24-hour and single storm record. I have a friend up there and they were stranded in town, had to spend the night in a hotel. Friend in Edmond said it was really bad too, heavy drifting on top of a foot of snow.

Further north in Topeka, KS, I have a friend on the edge of town there that estimated 12" fell in his neighborhood along with six foot drifts. Another friend in the Kansas City vicinity reported waist deep drifts in their yard.

What a memorable, once-in-a-lifetime, record breaking Christmas Eve blizzard!!!

Anybody want to try for a white New Year's Day?!?

[Texas Snowman]

I suspect changes as we get closer to Monday from many WFO's across TX. This will likely be another situation where changes will occur closer to the events than several day ahead of those events. As I've mentioned before in this Topic, we are entering into a very interesting time frame. The pattern that we are seeing looks close to 1967, 1972/73, and some 'hint's' of 1983 and 1989 analogs if you are into those. What complicates the situation is the setup is just abit different. We have a Central based Pacific El Nino event (entering into phase 8 ) rather than an El Nino closer to S America. There are suggestions tha another MJO pulse will head E from the Indian Ocean Regions toward the dateline. Add to the mix a continued -AO , -NOA, Greenland Blocking and another Polar Vortex event in the Great Lakes Region. The heights in the Arctic remain very high and some suggestions by the CPC Super Ensembles that this pattern will persist until Mid January. There is also a massive High in China/W Siberia that may slide across the N Pole during this time frame. We shall see, but bears watching IMHO.

I suspect that you are right. Seems like these systems true intentions aren't being shown until they are at the door-step, so to speak...

Unless, of course, you're Msstateguy83, that is, reading the weather charts and models days in advance!!!