Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Lagreeneyes03]

So it seems like the thinking of most of us on the boards about the air being way to cold to be "stopped" at the I-35 line so to speak was off. And it seemed like our assumption would have been true based on past extremely cold arctic airmasses, they usually blow right through like a freight train to the RGV and even central Florida. What was so different about this situation that the 20's did not reach most of Texas? How often is a warmer airmass able to hold of an arctic front like that? Definitely different than what we had in November.

[hriverajr]

It would appear that there was a bit of a pressure gradient lacking as well. If you noticed winds were not as high as you normally see with big arctic fronts. This cold air sort of oozed in.

[Ralph's Weather]

Raining fairly heavily and mid 30s. I have not checked the models today so not sure what wweare looking at later.

[TexasF6]

I certainly hope the next batch of Arctic air is not WIMPY like this one was. And hopefully the upper air columns behave for a great snowstorm. No ice.

[gpsnowman]

JB posted the latest CVSv2 for January and it looks mighty cold. Taking with a grain of salt.

[arizona_sooner]

Just started raining with 30 degF here in south Tulsa. No ice anywhere though. Maybe the Mesonet is off by a little bit in my neck of the woods.

[Portastorm]

Well, let's be clear about one thing ... while those of us along the I-35 corridor didnt see much, if any, wintry precip ... our friends in San Angelo, Midland/Odessa, and Lubbock are encased in ice right now. So they did see a mess materialize. This event was not a bust IMO. In fact, the GFS did pretty darn good and was fairly consistent while King Euro had a few nutty cycles.

What did we learn from this event? I know we can no longer assume a 1050+ mb high coming into Montana will automatically mean sub freezing temps for a large portion of Texas. Even wxman57 felt like the models were too warm ... and he's a very good pro met whose been watching weather in these parts for many years.

Bottom line to me is that our weather never ceases to amaze us and surprise us. We can all learn from this event. I know I'll be asking some of my met friends offline what happened and why. And here's a shout out to you skeptics ... keep your skepticism! You were right to be skeptical and you may end up keeping some of us excitable types more grounded.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: CFSV2 00z run for Jan now has colder US Jan than last year, though centered more plains, than midwest http://t.co/wgdCdi2abk/s/2RaV

[aggiecutter]

Well, let's be clear about one thing ... while those of us along the I-35 corridor didnt see much, if any, wintry precip ... our friends in San Angelo, Midland/Odessa, and Lubbock are encased in ice right now. So they did see a mess materialize. This event was not a bust IMO. In fact, the GFS did pretty darn good and was fairly consistent while King Euro had a few nutty cycles.

What did we learn from this event? I know we can no longer assume a 1050+ mb high coming into Montana will automatically mean sub freezing temps for a large portion of Texas. Even wxman57 felt like the models were too warm ... and he's a very good pro met whose been watching weather in these parts for many years.

Bottom line to me is that our weather never ceases to amaze us and surprise us. We can all learn from this event. I know I'll be asking some of my met friends offline what happened and why. And here's a shout out to you skeptics ... keep your skepticism! You were right to be skeptical and you may end up keeping some of us excitable types more grounded.

1. This was the first major arctic front in the plains since mid-November 2. We just came off a near record warm December for the contiguous 48. 3. Not much snow cover combined with 1 and 2 led to modification of the air mass. 3. The air mass wasn't unusually cold to start with.

[ronyan]

Given the past history of large HPs entering Montana, I don't think we were in error to assume very cold air would be coming to TX (and in fact it did, just was confined to western areas). I see this as a pretty rare setup that we may not see again for a while, so we should assume the cold is coming until there is good evidence to the contrary. At least in the future it will be easier to recognize a setup like this one.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Youre right Porta, this event really shocked me. I think W Tx felt the full brunt still but alot of the cold air also went west. 25 in Yuma Az this morning. Although a large portion of the cold was lee side of the rockies, much of it went west an maybe it lacked the 'umph' or weight to keep its momentum all the way to the coast. Plus, with alot of those big highs, the 500 MB chart coming in from canada was still north to south despite strong westerlies in the plains. This event, the winds at that level were much more from west to east. Next time though!

Happy new year and be safe guys!

[lukem]

[quote="Portastorm"]Well, let's be clear about one thing ... while those of us along the I-35 corridor didnt see much, if any, wintry precip ... our friends in San Angelo, Midland/Odessa, and Lubbock are encased in ice right now. So they did see a mess materialize. This event was not a bust IMO. In fact, the GFS did pretty darn good and was fairly consistent while King Euro had a few nutty cycles.

I'm in Midland and have been stuck in my house since Tuesday. I don't think we got out of the teens here yesterday. It's a little warmer today but the streets are still solid ice.

[aggiecutter]

You can see from the current temp below this air mass modified very quickly to due to the reasons I mentioned above. There is a small sliver of single digits in the intern-mountain region. The central and northern plains are in the 20' and 30's, which is at or above normal for January.

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/ ... re/us.html

[srainhoutx]

One of the things we have working in favor of those that like cold weather is the amount of snow cover this and the next storm on its way from the West Coast will bring across the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West into the Plains. In fact snow fell down into the Baja and at very low levels in the San Diego Southern Inland Empire to the Valley floors. The ensembles are not showing a mega torch anytime soon and though we may see some moderation, the upper flow pattern looks favorable for several additional bouts of very cold air heading S. We just took our first step down after a rather mild 45 day period...

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like a few inches of snow for the Panhandle and northern West Texas tomorrow with the upper low passing overhead. Showers will continue across much of the rest of the day tomorrow before a line of storms develops tomorrow night across North and Central Texas and heads east exiting the state by midday Saturday. Cool temps will continue into next week, but tomorrow's West Texas snow should be the last of the wintery stuff for a bit. With the fresh snowpack and better upper air pattern next week may see colder temps than this week for eastern Texas even though the high will not be near as strong.

[Ntxwx]

Why is the WPC showing such a high chance of freezing rain for dfw tonight? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well, let's be clear about one thing ... while those of us along the I-35 corridor didnt see much, if any, wintry precip ... our friends in San Angelo, Midland/Odessa, and Lubbock are encased in ice right now. So they did see a mess materialize. This event was not a bust IMO. In fact, the GFS did pretty darn good and was fairly consistent while King Euro had a few nutty cycles.

What did we learn from this event? I know we can no longer assume a 1050+ mb high coming into Montana will automatically mean sub freezing temps for a large portion of Texas. Even wxman57 felt like the models were too warm ... and he's a very good pro met whose been watching weather in these parts for many years.

Bottom line to me is that our weather never ceases to amaze us and surprise us. We can all learn from this event. I know I'll be asking some of my met friends offline what happened and why. And here's a shout out to you skeptics ... keep your skepticism! You were right to be skeptical and you may end up keeping some of us excitable types more grounded.

I'm still here, not going anywhere and definitely no changing my opinion on this winter being anything out of the ordinary. What's going on with the models today? None are showing any long range superstorm blizzards for the south

[SouthernMet]

Winter Storm Warning Issued for West Central tx.. Temps are expected to stay below freezing through saturday with up to .25" of additional ice accumulations.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CST THU JAN 1 2015

...ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY...EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING...ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE OR
LESS...BUT LOCATIONS FROM HASKELL...TO SWEETWATER...TO STERLING
CITY MAY SEE UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE. SLEET MAY MIX WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.

FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-
CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...HASKELL...
THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...
ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN
325 PM CST THU JAN 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS: ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...EXPOSED SURFACES...VEGETATION...AND POWER LINES.
THE ICY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

* TIMING: THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS: MOST AREAS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOCATIONS FROM HASKELL...TO
SWEETWATER...TO STERLING CITY MAY SEE UP TO 1/4 INCH ADDITIONAL
ICE ACCUMULATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

[Ralph's Weather]

Why is the WPC showing such a high chance of freezing rain for dfw tonight? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

The first map accounts for what fell this morning.

[Ntxwx]

Why is the WPC showing such a high chance of freezing rain for dfw tonight? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

The first map accounts for what fell this morning.

Are you sure? latest brand new update WPC says 00z january 2nd (now) - 00z january 3rd (tomorrow night)
It has 0% chance for Dallas, 70% for Fort Worth & 90% for Denton... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities