Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: My hope is that the models back off a bit from the major cold and that allows a disturbance and moisture to hold back and possibly bring us some wintry precip. Plenty of time still to watch.

I hope so too. But from the beginning I've been looking for the major HPs before the rumbles of winter storm in the analog patterns. Now that it's there, it's hard to disregard it. I've been skeptical with models showing low mid 20s for lows, when (yet again) the last blast was wimpier and it got to 22. I wouldn't be surprised if this got us into the low to mid teens.

[Brent]

:uarrow: My hope is that the models back off a bit from the major cold and that allows a disturbance and moisture to hold back and possibly bring us some wintry precip. Plenty of time still to watch.

I hope so too. But from the beginning I've been looking for the major HPs before the rumbles of winter storm in the analog patterns. Now that it's there, it's hard to disregard it. I've been skeptical with models showing low mid 20s for lows, when (yet again) the last blast was wimpier and it got to 22. I wouldn't be surprised if this got us into the low to mid teens.

yeah if we're clear skies like modeled tonight I see no reason we can't do teens easy

That last cold wasn't even that impressive lol

[South Texas Storms]

If these models trends hold, our best chance of wintry precip may be about 10-12 days from now. Several models show a disturbance approaching from the west around this time while the cold air is still hanging around.

Snow is developing across portions of eastern Mexico at hour 240 on the Euro.

[Ntxw]

Going to save this (High pressure) since it might be another 25-30 years before it happens again (if this happens at all) since they have a return rate by that much

[Brent]

oh before the cold, the Euro has another inch of rain Monday/Tuesday!!!

Now we just need precip to pop out of nowhere when its cold

[Cpv17]

Going to save this (High pressure) since it might be another 25-30 years before it happens again (if this happens at all) since they have a return rate by that much

http://i68.tinypic.com/iymm3q.png

Even if that doesn’t actually come to reality, that’s quite impressive to look at. Unbelievable, really. With that type of setup we could see teens all the way down to SE TX.

[Ntxw]

oh before the cold, the Euro has another inch of rain Monday/Tuesday!!!

Now we just need precip to pop out of nowhere when its cold

It can happen! In 2014 Feb it snowed while it was 16 degrees. It was so cold that dendritic growth zone was close to the surface with a very weak streaming vorticity ahead inside the cold dome. Basically snow was made at the lower levels, something that happens more often up north with little to nothing on radar.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114950&start=7320

[Cpv17]

oh before the cold, the Euro has another inch of rain Monday/Tuesday!!!

Now we just need precip to pop out of nowhere when its cold

That could very easily happen imo. All we need is one good disturbance and the subtropical jet has been active as well. We’ve had several overcast days here lately in SE TX cuz of it. Just a steady stream of moisture has been pouring into TX lately from the Pacific.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro control run has a winter storm developing across much of TX December 28-30. It's showing snow across the northern half of the state with ice across the southern half.

[Ralph's Weather]

oh before the cold, the Euro has another inch of rain Monday/Tuesday!!!

Now we just need precip to pop out of nowhere when its cold

It can happen! In 2014 Feb it snowed while it was 16 degrees. It was so cold that dendritic growth zone was close to the surface with a very weak streaming vorticity ahead inside the cold dome. Basically snow was made at the lower levels, something that happens more often up north with little to nothing on radar.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114950&start=7320

I remember that hastening a month later on me in E TX during the early Match outbreak. We got heavy thundersleet the day before then lake effect snow with temps in the teens.

[South Texas Storms]

6z GFS shows snow developing across a large part of TX on December 27.

Temps in the teens and 20s while it's snowing. 1064 mb high in Kansas. That would be impressive.

Temps in the atmosphere warm on the 28th and 29th changing the precip over to rain and ice. Extended winter storm for the state this run.

[Cpv17]

6z GFS shows snow developing across a large part of TX on December 27.

Temps in the teens and 20s while it's snowing. 1064 mb high in Kansas. That would be impressive.

The high actually gets to 1066mb twice. Once at hour 222 over Montana and North Dakota and again at hour 240 over Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska. Serious cold pouring into Texas. Unreal run of the GFS. After that it shows Canada reloading again with another massive outbreak of Artic air poised to break south. At hour 276 it has the highest pressure I’ve ever personally seen on any forecast model. A whopping 1071mb high in NW Canada.

[South Texas Storms]

6z GFS shows snow developing across a large part of TX on December 27.

Temps in the teens and 20s while it's snowing. 1064 mb high in Kansas. That would be impressive.

The high actually gets to 1066mb twice. Once at hour 222 over Montana and North Dakota and again at hour 240 over Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska. Serious cold pouring into Texas. Unreal run of the GFS.

Yeah it's an amazingly cold run. Pivotal Weather's snow maps show over a foot in Austin and SA. I think some of it is sleet and freezing rain though.

[Cpv17]

6z GFS shows snow developing across a large part of TX on December 27.

Temps in the teens and 20s while it's snowing. 1064 mb high in Kansas. That would be impressive.

The high actually gets to 1066mb twice. Once at hour 222 over Montana and North Dakota and again at hour 240 over Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska. Serious cold pouring into Texas. Unreal run of the GFS.

Yeah it's an amazingly cold run. Pivotal Weather's snow maps show over a foot in Austin and SA. I think some of it is sleet and freezing rain though.

Check out hour 276 in NW Canada lol just plain silly

[South Texas Storms]

The high actually gets to 1066mb twice. Once at hour 222 over Montana and North Dakota and again at hour 240 over Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska. Serious cold pouring into Texas. Unreal run of the GFS.

Yeah it's an amazingly cold run. Pivotal Weather's snow maps show over a foot in Austin and SA. I think some of it is sleet and freezing rain though.

Check out hour 276 in NW Canada lol just plain silly

Talk about unreal! 1076 mb!

[Ntxw]

Yeah 6z GFS lost its marbles trying to set a new US high pressure record

Held by 1983!

[Ntxw]

Yeah it's an amazingly cold run. Pivotal Weather's snow maps show over a foot in Austin and SA. I think some of it is sleet and freezing rain though.

Check out hour 276 in NW Canada lol just plain silly

Talk about unreal! 1076 mb!

1076 in NW Can is near Continental record of 1078mb Alaska Jan/Feb 1989

[wxman57]

The GFS giveth (Christmas winter weather), and the GFS taketh away. Oh, wait! Now the winter weather is 4-5 days later! Yeah, that's it! Oh, and let's tease everyone with a giant surface high and extremely cold temps for a few runs...

Don't trust the winter storm prediction when it keeps moving later and later.

[Tireman4]

The GFS giveth (Christmas winter weather), and the GFS taketh away. Oh, wait! Now the winter weather is 4-5 days later! Yeah, that's it! Oh, and let's tease everyone with a giant surface high and extremely cold temps for a few runs...

Don't trust the winter storm prediction when it keeps moving later and later.

I hate to say this, but I have a feeling this Summer is going to hurt...sigh...

[Ralph's Weather]

Got some very good rain yesterday and last night. Up to 3" in Tyler. Multiple rain chances for the coming week also.