Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2261 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:31 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Front is looking sharper and sharper on Thursday. Dallas may be in the 50s while Fort Worth is sub 30F on the other side.
Very Interesting


By sundown everyone is in the middle teens.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2262 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Front is looking sharper and sharper on Thursday. Dallas may be in the 50s while Fort Worth is sub 30F on the other side.

Yeah Thursday night will be brutal for for those who have to be out or work. Like cycloneye mentioned above the wind chills will be nasty.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2263 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Front is looking sharper and sharper on Thursday. Dallas may be in the 50s while Fort Worth is sub 30F on the other side.

I have a question. After this extreme cold shot for some, do you expect a warm up and how long you thinking possibly? Just curious your thoughts
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2264 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:37 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Front is looking sharper and sharper on Thursday. Dallas may be in the 50s while Fort Worth is sub 30F on the other side.

I have a question. After this extreme cold shot for some, do you expect a warm up and how long you thinking possibly? Just curious your thoughts


Think cold will be scoured and we get milder with +EPO for a time until after January. Big East Coast Ridge though will counterbalance it in the west. There is a big storm signal week 2 for mountain west and plains, I could see a winter storm with favorable climo for these areas. -AO stays in place. Severe cold likely won't return to the continent until mid Jan.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2265 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Front is looking sharper and sharper on Thursday. Dallas may be in the 50s while Fort Worth is sub 30F on the other side.

I have a question. After this extreme cold shot for some, do you expect a warm up and how long you thinking possibly? Just curious your thoughts


Think cold will be scoured and we get milder with +EPO for a time until after January. Big East Coast Ridge though will counterbalance it in the west. There is a big storm signal week 2 for mountain west and plains, I could see a winter storm with favorable climo for these areas. -AO stays in place. Severe cold likely won't return to the continent until mid Jan.


What are the Euro weeklies showing?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2266 Postby Gotwood » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:20 pm

So this event should be nailed down by the morning?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2267 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:21 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:I have a question. After this extreme cold shot for some, do you expect a warm up and how long you thinking possibly? Just curious your thoughts


Think cold will be scoured and we get milder with +EPO for a time until after January. Big East Coast Ridge though will counterbalance it in the west. There is a big storm signal week 2 for mountain west and plains, I could see a winter storm with favorable climo for these areas. -AO stays in place. Severe cold likely won't return to the continent until mid Jan.


What are the Euro weeklies showing?


New weeklies run tomorrow, the ones now are fairly old.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2268 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:31 pm

Gotwood wrote:So this event should be nailed down by the morning?


No. Not even close.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2269 Postby Gotwood » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:36 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:So this event should be nailed down by the morning?


No. Not even close.

When do you think? Tuesday?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2270 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:39 pm

Gotwood wrote:So this event should be nailed down by the morning?


Depends on where you're located. Widespread cold for much of the region. Best odds of accumulating snowfall for now look to be across NE Oklahoma points N and NE based on the NBM. Could be some minor swings with that but once you get within that 3 day window I wouldn't expect much as things begin to lock in.

\Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2271 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:46 pm

TV forecasts "up to 3-4 inches" so far(Tulsa before anyone gets confused). We'll see... Yesterday the one that said anything said a dusting :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2272 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:54 pm

Check out the NAM. Holy cow! :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2273 Postby harp » Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Check out the NAM. Holy cow! :double:

What??
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2274 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:02 pm

Definite shift by the GFS OP...going toward the Euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2275 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:02 pm

This GFS run is so amped with the storm it may rain in Chicago :lol:.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2276 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:06 pm

The GFS looks wonky to me.. it's so warm here ahead of the front :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2277 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:06 pm

Also 1069mb in Montana would set all new contiguous pressure record. 1064mb into Wyoming would likely set all kinds of records there too, quite a sprawling HP system.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2278 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:08 pm

Brent wrote:The GFS looks wonky to me.. it's so warm here ahead of the front :lol:


Bend it a little more left and you have the theProfessor's TX/Mo/Iowa track haha. Dreams, it's a very amplified solution a very hard cutter storm. This is middle America's version of the '93 superstorm in winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2279 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:13 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:So this event should be nailed down by the morning?


Depends on where you're located. Widespread cold for much of the region. Best odds of accumulating snowfall for now look to be across NE Oklahoma points N and NE based on the NBM. Could be some minor swings with that but once you get within that 3 day window I wouldn't expect much as things begin to lock in.

\https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1671408000/1671796800-GNFeBqwi8Yg.png


My hometown would get 7-8 inches in that, so I would have something left to see on the 30th. Looks good to me.

I do hope it ends up further south and west, but I think maybe another 100 miles or so is about the max it would change at this point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2280 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:17 pm

ICON and CMC are coming in colder for SE TX. CMC has Houston at 12 degrees Friday morning probably not going to get that cold but I wouldn't be surprised if it is colder than what the GFS is showing.
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