Pacific Northwest Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Not for me! Leave for work at 4:30am and spend a good couple of hours freezing outside. Good thing it is only a couple days a week. Snow_Wizzard, I have also noticed that Covington schoolnet is running quite a bit warmer than what I get at my house and I am only 15 minutes away (close to Lake Morton).
0 likes
-
Cumulonimbus
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 70
- Joined: Sun Jun 22, 2003 9:03 am
- Location: Newcastle, WA
How is this for depressing?? % of snow/water content compared to average. Glad I do NOT have a well for water this upcoming summer!
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswen.html
Check it out! [/url]
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswen.html
Check it out! [/url]
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
There are 2 poosiblities of how Covington Elemenatary could be so much warmer than here.
1. They are getting more east wind.
2. Their thermometer is wrong.
I have two mercury max - min thermometers, a weather station, a wireless thermometer, and an expensive hand held unit, so I am pretty confident my numbers are good.
As an interesting side note...This type of a weather regime (clear skies with huge diurnal temperature changes, and periodic reinforcments of cold air) is actually quite common during our cold periods. The real "proof of the pudding" will be how things go over the next few seasons. It is possible we have turned the corner to a colder period, but obviously we need more proof. The running PNA average going ever more negative is another good sign. Even if we do enter a colder phase, it will be a few years before we know if it's a brief episode like late 1983 - early 1986 or if it's the real thing like 1945 - 75.
1. They are getting more east wind.
2. Their thermometer is wrong.
I have two mercury max - min thermometers, a weather station, a wireless thermometer, and an expensive hand held unit, so I am pretty confident my numbers are good.
As an interesting side note...This type of a weather regime (clear skies with huge diurnal temperature changes, and periodic reinforcments of cold air) is actually quite common during our cold periods. The real "proof of the pudding" will be how things go over the next few seasons. It is possible we have turned the corner to a colder period, but obviously we need more proof. The running PNA average going ever more negative is another good sign. Even if we do enter a colder phase, it will be a few years before we know if it's a brief episode like late 1983 - early 1986 or if it's the real thing like 1945 - 75.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
andycottle wrote:Good evening you all. My temp not near as chilly as last night at this hour. Temp of 34 as of 9pm and humidity 77% with baro 30.06 and steady.
Oh BTW....Great pics, Randy! They really turned out good. PS: our high today was 51 with a low of 25. -- Andy
Thanks Andy!!
Currently at 9:00PM
Temp 31.4 degrees
High today was 42.8 degrees
Low this morning was 24.8 degrees
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
I am probably going to shcok TT and some others with this post, but here it goes. 
I am beginning to worry that the highly blocked pattern and mostly dead weather MAY go right through the rest of winter and into spring. The outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) has gone strongly below normal for the first time this season. That is the thing that normally contributes to our typical El Nino signature weather patterns. Up till now this winter has been normal or even above normal OLR, and that is probaby the reason the winter has been cold at times even though the precip has followed a SOMEWHAT typical El Nino distributution. When OLR is below normal, less heat than normal escapes into space in the central equatorial Pacific. That results in the excess heat translating into amplified ridges near the west coast. If the OLR continues like this, we will likely see the dead pattern continue, but with temps going well above normal.
Now for the good news! If this scenario unfolds, the prospects are good for a much colder pattern to set up begininng during the second half of the year. 1983 and 1992 were great examples of this...very warm, and BORING the first half of the year, and cold the second half. This could mean a yucko summer...time will tell.
That having been said...the weather patterns are so messed up this year that we could still go into a cool and wet regime in March. I am just less confident of that now.
I am beginning to worry that the highly blocked pattern and mostly dead weather MAY go right through the rest of winter and into spring. The outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) has gone strongly below normal for the first time this season. That is the thing that normally contributes to our typical El Nino signature weather patterns. Up till now this winter has been normal or even above normal OLR, and that is probaby the reason the winter has been cold at times even though the precip has followed a SOMEWHAT typical El Nino distributution. When OLR is below normal, less heat than normal escapes into space in the central equatorial Pacific. That results in the excess heat translating into amplified ridges near the west coast. If the OLR continues like this, we will likely see the dead pattern continue, but with temps going well above normal.
Now for the good news! If this scenario unfolds, the prospects are good for a much colder pattern to set up begininng during the second half of the year. 1983 and 1992 were great examples of this...very warm, and BORING the first half of the year, and cold the second half. This could mean a yucko summer...time will tell.
That having been said...the weather patterns are so messed up this year that we could still go into a cool and wet regime in March. I am just less confident of that now.
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
WOW, even more in depth then the other discussions lately 
(Being very sarcastic here)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 903 PM PST WED FEB 16 2005
.DISCUSSION... THE OMEGA BLOCK OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY... THEREBY ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROF TO DIVE SWD ACROSS WRN CANADA THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE NAM WAS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE CWA THRU THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.
(Being very sarcastic here)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 903 PM PST WED FEB 16 2005
.DISCUSSION... THE OMEGA BLOCK OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY... THEREBY ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROF TO DIVE SWD ACROSS WRN CANADA THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE NAM WAS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE CWA THRU THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
41.2 degrees here compared to 31 dergees last night.
The pattern is so screwed up right now I do not know what to think.
Strangest pattern I have ever seen. I am looking at Southern California as well because I watched the pattern very closely down there for 12 years. I have never seen this... or anything like it.
The pattern is so screwed up right now I do not know what to think.
Strangest pattern I have ever seen. I am looking at Southern California as well because I watched the pattern very closely down there for 12 years. I have never seen this... or anything like it.
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Ok folks, looking the 00z run of the GFS...this dry sunny period keeps on going up untill about late in day on the 26th is when we could see some light showers. 850MB temp are +3 to near +6C tomorrow through Saturday, then cooling to -3C for the weekend. 500MB voricity heights are 564DM tomorrow, which should put highs in the mid 50's. Heights lower to around 546DM on Sunday, but rise back up again to 558 by Monday. Looks like the Canadain global is still showing deep trough from Sunday, but with only some light precip. So think I'll call sunday a partly cloudy to overcast day since the two models disagree on what to expect for that day.
-- Andy
-- Andy
0 likes
snow_wizzard wrote:Andrew...I think they need to send somebody out there to check the accuracy. I am embarrassed to have people think it is so mild here!
In reality this area has been having many of the coldest low temps this winter. We have beat Olympia on many mornings this time around.
Same here. I live only about 7-10 miles way from downtown Covington at most, so it reflects on me also. We have some of the coldest temperatures during the winter every year, and also sometimes the warmest temperatures during the summer. It would be a shame if we discounted as a warm/cold spot.
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Another cold night...but warmer than the past two. Currently 37F compared to the upper 20s, lower 30s of the last two nights.
This weekend is a toss-up, depending on what model you look at. All European models indicate a trough over the PNW starting Saturday afternoon, but the GFS barely indicates anything...just a continuation of the rex block. Like I've said before, the European models have handled winter alot better than the GFS so I'm leaning toward that model.
Right now I need to focus on Phoenix for this weekend...and so far it's not looking too good.
It's amazing to see our pattern flipp-flopped with So. California. This is some crazy weather and just doesn't want to give up. Let's just pray our summer doesn't go down the drain...there have been a few years when we've had a very dry/warm fall and winter and then spring and summer went to hell. Not saying it will follow this year, but just an idea.
Anthony
Goodnite to all! Another wonderful day of waking up at 5am for zero period...man I can't wait till that's over!
This weekend is a toss-up, depending on what model you look at. All European models indicate a trough over the PNW starting Saturday afternoon, but the GFS barely indicates anything...just a continuation of the rex block. Like I've said before, the European models have handled winter alot better than the GFS so I'm leaning toward that model.
Right now I need to focus on Phoenix for this weekend...and so far it's not looking too good.
It's amazing to see our pattern flipp-flopped with So. California. This is some crazy weather and just doesn't want to give up. Let's just pray our summer doesn't go down the drain...there have been a few years when we've had a very dry/warm fall and winter and then spring and summer went to hell. Not saying it will follow this year, but just an idea.
Anthony
Goodnite to all! Another wonderful day of waking up at 5am for zero period...man I can't wait till that's over!
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
The Canadian is certainly more dramatic on the trough for this weekend. This ensemble map is for the 546 contour at day 3.
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ense ... 072_e.html
Very interesting to note that a few of the ensemble members show the trough will hang back over us for several days. I'm not counting on it, but that would be awsome!
At any rate a fairly cold trough for the weekend looks good. The offshore pressure gradients look to be very weak early next week, so we could be looking at a cold inversion at that time.
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ense ... 072_e.html
Very interesting to note that a few of the ensemble members show the trough will hang back over us for several days. I'm not counting on it, but that would be awsome!
At any rate a fairly cold trough for the weekend looks good. The offshore pressure gradients look to be very weak early next week, so we could be looking at a cold inversion at that time.
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
The last few runs of the GFS have thrown me completely off track.
I really thought we were headed for a pattern change by the end of next week.
I also figured the Southwest was done with the incredible rain. Some of the totals down there since late December are staggering. Lake Hodges in San Diego (a HUGE reservoir) had completely dried up during the last six years. It has now risen 90 feet in 6 weeks. I am in a state of disbelief. It was almost totally gone and now it might flood the dam.
The overall global pattern is amazingly strange.
My confidence is shrinking. This spring weather may turn right into summer before long.
I really thought we were headed for a pattern change by the end of next week.
I also figured the Southwest was done with the incredible rain. Some of the totals down there since late December are staggering. Lake Hodges in San Diego (a HUGE reservoir) had completely dried up during the last six years. It has now risen 90 feet in 6 weeks. I am in a state of disbelief. It was almost totally gone and now it might flood the dam.
The overall global pattern is amazingly strange.
My confidence is shrinking. This spring weather may turn right into summer before long.
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 71 guests