Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS is crap! 12z run showed 1-2 inches of rain for SA and Austin next Wednesday and now the 0z shows less than .25 inch. Now that pisses me off! I was really looking forward to a good soaking beneficial rainfall event next week. Grrrrrrr.

[hriverajr]

I give up on the models.. they are clueless at the moment.. lol

I don't know how to explain it.. but the 0z gfs in the long range.. just does not look right.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is crap! 12z run showed 1-2 inches of rain for SA and Austin next Wednesday and now the 0z shows less than .25 inch. Now that pisses me off! I was really looking forward to a good soaking beneficial rainfall event next week. Grrrrrrr.

Yeah it's been really hard to pinpoint models have been everywhere. Open trough, closed low, Texas, baja, Canada...don't feel too disappointed yet, you might get your rain as the models don't have a clue what to do with the system. Better chance will be with the second system past 100 hrs.

For entertainment:



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[Rgv20]

GFS having a hard time to say the least......One thing tho it looks like a pattern (colder weather?) change in the longer range and IMO that is why the GFS is having a hard time.

[Rgv20]

For entertainment:

For extra fun!

0zGFS 500mb Anomalies for early February



December 20, 1989 500mb Anomalies

[somethingfunny]

0z GFS is crap! 12z run showed 1-2 inches of rain for SA and Austin next Wednesday and now the 0z shows less than .25 inch. Now that pisses me off! I was really looking forward to a good soaking beneficial rainfall event next week. Grrrrrrr.

Yeah it's been really hard to pinpoint models have been everywhere. Open trough, closed low, Texas, baja, Canada...don't feel too disappointed yet, you might get your rain as the models don't have a clue what to do with the system. Better chance will be with the second system past 100 hrs.

For entertainment:

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/3588/gfsb.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

LOL WTF?

That's the -20C isotherm crossing Memphis and OKC. At sunset on the 5th. Oh and that's Super Bowl Sunday. I guess Indianapolis will have salt trucks though.

It's totally out to lunch but it's funny to look at.

[wxman57]

The 0Z Euro and Canadian are VASTLY different from the 06Z GFS at 240 hrs, though the 00Z GFS 500mb pattern at hour 240 is somewhat similar to the GFS. Generally, little to no model agreement in the long range. The differences are huge as far as impact on the U.S. -- very cold and possibly snowy or a continuation of the current mild conditions. Which one is right? I wouldn't put my money on the GFS at 300+ hours, particularly the 06Z GFS...

[Portastorm]

The 0Z Euro and Canadian are VASTLY different from the 06Z GFS at 240 hrs, though the 00Z GFS 500mb pattern at hour 240 is somewhat similar to the GFS. Generally, little to no model agreement in the long range. The differences are huge as far as impact on the U.S. -- very cold and possibly snowy or a continuation of the current mild conditions. Which one is right? I wouldn't put my money on the GFS at 300+ hours, particularly the 06Z GFS...

Agreed. Of more importance and in a shorter range, we may have quite a storm system to deal with next week. The GFS seems a lot more progressive with the upper-level energy than the Euro/CMC. For as much disagreement among the models, I find the same among forecast discussions this morning out of NWSFO in Texas. EWX likes the GFS while HGX is going with the Euro/CMC blend for next week.

At least we have some weather to talk about besides this awful warm/zonal/mild stuff!

[Ntxw]

^ Well looks like Wxman did something to 12z GFS .

Cmc and GFS are both wet for Texas next week as well as the Euro. Maybe (and the very slightest maybe) some cold air could sneak on the backside of the low somewhere. Ahead of it with all this warm weather is definitely severe potential. Folks in east and SE TX particularly I think needs to keep an eye on it.

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville regarding the cutoff low that has given models fits for the past couple of days.........Looks like its going to be a good rain maker for someone in Texas.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SEEM TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE ON THE
SAME PAGE TODAY WITH REGARD TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH/CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL BE SO RASHLY OFFERING A CHANGE TO OUR LESS DYNAMIC
WEATHER OF LATE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE AMONG THESE MODELS APPEARS TO
BE THE BOTTOMING OUT POINT OF THE ENERGY. ALL THREE VARY WITH A
CENTER LOCATION SOMEWHERE IN TEXAS...ABOUT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OR
NORTH...WITH THE BASE EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO...
RESULTING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING OVER US AT SOME POINT
FROM THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY TO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.

[wxman57]

Not a lot of talk about the long-range GFS lately. Not on the most-favored list of models of the cold-mongerers any more? Cheer up. I still don't believe it has the right solution yet. Lots of differences between it an the Euro at 240 hrs. Don't know which is right yet.

[Portastorm]

Based on the overnight medium-range model runs, a good shot at rain (perhaps heavy rain) and even some severe weather looks increasingly promising for south Texas by the middle of this coming week. Definitely something to be watching.

On a longer-range note, look what that Crazy Canadian drew up for next weekend in Texas!

[wxman57]

What do you see on the 00Z Canadian, Portastorm? I just see that it's a bit slower than the Euro/GFS in bringing next week's upper low through Texas. Moderate cold front dropping south into Texas in its wake (1028 high). No precip.

[Portastorm]

What do you see on the 00Z Canadian, Portastorm? I just see that it's a bit slower than the Euro/GFS in bringing next week's upper low through Texas. Moderate cold front dropping south into Texas in its wake (1028 high). No precip.

Per the Penn State e-wall site, the 0z Canadian carves out a large, cold trough over the nation's midsection and at 192-204 hours, seems to bring some energy down the backside of the trough. Air appears cold enough for "wintry" precip and there definitely is some precip showing up north of the 0-degree isotherm. Again, it would appear mainly for north Texas. Still ...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

[Portastorm]

Wait until South Texas Storms sees the 12z GFS ... which provides several days of heavy rains, off and on, for much of central and south Texas starting next Tuesday. Let's hope it's right and we can make a real dent in this drought!

[Portastorm]

Wait until South Texas Storms sees the 12z GFS ... which provides several days of heavy rains, off and on, for much of central and south Texas starting next Tuesday. Let's hope it's right and we can make a real dent in this drought!

Then there's that snowstorm for the Panhandle and northwest Texas about 10 days out. The GFS is just all over the place from run to run.

[Texas Snowman]

Wait until South Texas Storms sees the 12z GFS ... which provides several days of heavy rains, off and on, for much of central and south Texas starting next Tuesday. Let's hope it's right and we can make a real dent in this drought!

Yeah, one way or the other, we've got to get our resident "Heat Monger" and his darn bicycle off the road! Frigid temperatures, snow, sleet, freezing rain, or just plain chilly winter-time rain, we've got to break his hold on the winter that wasn't, 2011-12.

Seriously, though, NEVER thought we'd dent/break the drought in Texas during a La Nina winter.

The weather never ceases to surprise...

[wxman57]

Had a great 45 mile ride yesterday with a temp of 81 degrees. Perfect winter weather, though a bit windy. Sucks today with light rain and that front stationary across the city. Upper 70s tomorrow, though.

Still looks like a long-duration rain event next Wed-Thu across much of TX. Good for the drought. No sign of anything really cold down here for at least the next 10 days.

[Portastorm]

Had a great 45 mile ride yesterday with a temp of 81 degrees. Perfect winter weather, though a bit windy. Sucks today with light rain and that front stationary across the city. Upper 70s tomorrow, though.

Still looks like a long-duration rain event next Wed-Thu across much of TX. Good for the drought. No sign of anything really cold down here for at least the next 10 days.

Depends on how you define "really cold." The 12z GFS and Canadian suggest a cold trough with wintry precip for portions of north Texas about 240 hours (10 days) out.

Enjoy your biking weather, sir. The cold mongerers will have their way this winter!

[South Texas Storms]

Wait until South Texas Storms sees the 12z GFS ... which provides several days of heavy rains, off and on, for much of central and south Texas starting next Tuesday. Let's hope it's right and we can make a real dent in this drought!

Haha you know me too well Porta! I love the 12z GFS. That would put a huge dent in our drought if it verified. I really hope it does!