Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

I would call this "agreement" between the three major ensembles ...

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[srainhoutx]

Seeing 1968 and 1971 via the GEFS Super Ensemble Analogs with dates right around the timeframe that overrunning precipitation is expected after the shallow Arctic airmass is in place across Texas. 1968 is currently the top Analog which brought freezing rain that glazed the Freeways across SE Texas as did 1971 around the same date.

[ronyan]

Porta would you post a link to the full images? Can't see the valid times on those maps.

[gboudx]

Porta would you post a link to the full images? Can't see the valid times on those maps.

I had to zoom in but all 3 are Jan 6th.

[Portastorm]

Sorry about that ... I was trying not to hog up too much bandwidth on folks' computers. All three are from the 0z ensemble runs (Euro, GFS, and CMC). All three depict the 850mb temp anomalies at 192 hours or 0z Friday, Jan. 6th (which would be 7 pm Texas time on Thursday, Jan. 5th).

[stormlover2013]

Larry crossgrove doesn't buy the wintery stuff so who knows

[Ntxw]

12z GFS, who will win the snow jackpot this spin of the wheel? Austin, Houston, or Dallas? Or North Dakota? Questions...questions...

[Portastorm]

Larry crossgrove doesn't buy the wintery stuff so who knows

Yes I have noticed that as well. He's confident in the cold airmass but much less confident in any frozen stuff for much of Texas. We shall see.

[CaptinCrunch]

Larry crossgrove doesn't buy the wintery stuff so who knows

Yes I have noticed that as well. He's confident in the cold airmass but much less confident in any frozen stuff for much of Texas. We shall see.

It's all going to depend on how cold this arctic surge is going to be, how thick is the cold aloft and how much moisture there is in the above overriding pacific air with each of the upper level disturbances riding across. The NWS FTW at least thinks there is a chance of some type of winter precip late next week...

Rain chances will return to most of the area Sunday ahead of a
shortwave that will will eject out of the southwestern U.S.
Rain chances will continue Sunday night and end from west to east
late Sunday night into Monday as a cold front moves through the
region.

The next feature of interest will be an arctic cold front that is
forecast to move down the Plains and through North and Central
Texas Tuesday. This will bring much colder air into the region
for Tuesday night through the end of the work week. Both the
GFS and ECMWF indicate a possibility of the some wintry
precipitation next Thursday. Fortunately, this is just beyond
the end of the current set of forecasts.

[Ntxw]

By Tuesday evening cold front is approaching Red River valley. Air mass looks fairly deep, this isn't going to be the huge drop type front but slow fall behind the front. Energy is swinging to the west in the great basin and a disturbance is approaching from the southwest.

[Brent]

GFS already has some frozen precip in DFW Wednesday night

Large area of frozen precip south towards austin thursday

[Yukon Cornelius]

The Weather Channel has a 60% of snow next Thursday night and a 50% chance of snow next Friday for my area. I do think their forecast is a little premature but it is nice to at least see it in the forecast.

[gpsnowman]

It is going to be a loooonnnnggggg week made longer through anticipation and excitement. Let's enjoy the ride!

[Brent]

[Brent]

Here comes a 2nd round Friday

[stormlover2013]

I don't buy anything this late out especially with this type of cold air mass, models do a horrendous job

[Ntxw]

Snow along I-20 next friday on the gfs

[mcheer23]

Too bad Houston has been warmer on latest runs.

[stormlover2013]

Models do a bad job with these type of air masses usually it ends up 2-4 degrees colder than what they normally show or sometimes more

[mcheer23]

Models do a bad job with these type of air masses usually it ends up 2-4 degrees colder than what they normally show or sometimes more

If that's the case most of what GFS is showing would.be frozen all the way into Houston