Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

ICON and CMC are coming in colder for SE TX. CMC has Houston at 12 degrees Friday morning probably not going to get that cold but I wouldn't be surprised if it is colder than what the GFS is showing.

If the pressures verify then all bets are off as far as temps go. If you’re a weather enthusiast then we really need to appreciate what we’re about to experience because a front of this magnitude could be a once in a lifetime type of event.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah so that GFS run... honestly I love it. I know the surface low would be at least 100 miles further south-southwest, which with that track would bullseye southern Kansas and Oklahoma lol

[Snowman67]

Looks like 00Z gfs run has a little more moisture in SE Texas as the front comes through.

[Ntxw]

ICON and CMC are coming in colder for SE TX. CMC has Houston at 12 degrees Friday morning probably not going to get that cold but I wouldn't be surprised if it is colder than what the GFS is showing.

If the pressures verify then all bets are off as far as temps go. If you’re a weather enthusiast then we really need to appreciate what we’re about to experience because a front of this magnitude could be a once in a lifetime type of event.

Models usually lose those kinds of pressures and the temps they have now as we get closer but this is the real deal.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

ICON and CMC are coming in colder for SE TX. CMC has Houston at 12 degrees Friday morning probably not going to get that cold but I wouldn't be surprised if it is colder than what the GFS is showing.

If the pressures verify then all bets are off as far as temps go. If you’re a weather enthusiast then we really need to appreciate what we’re about to experience because a front of this magnitude could be a once in a lifetime type of event.

Models usually lose those kinds of pressures and the temps they have now as we get closer but this is the real deal.

I’m going to be standing outside in a bathing suit when this front arrives! Can’t wait!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[SnowintheFalls]

Yeah so that GFS run... honestly I love it. I know the surface low would be at least 100 miles further south-southwest, which with that track would bullseye southern Kansas and Oklahoma lol

Would that help get snow into north Texas as well?

[PTrackerLA]

And here we are getting into the medium range and the models are trending colder with a stronger Montana HP...

For south Louisiana purposes, this now looks more intense than the February 2021 cold snap and really may be the coldest temps since 1989...amazing. Time to sound the alarm and people need to be protecting their homes/pipes the next few days.

[Cpv17]

Good god almighty that CMC run is an absolute freezer

[Ntxw]

Yeah so that GFS run... honestly I love it. I know the surface low would be at least 100 miles further south-southwest, which with that track would bullseye southern Kansas and Oklahoma lol

I'd be quite nervous in STL and Chicago. There's still a couple days of trend and really until it comes down the Pac NW. Right now it's 2011's groundhog day type track but anymore west+amped in the cluster you're going 2009.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah so that GFS run... honestly I love it. I know the surface low would be at least 100 miles further south-southwest, which with that track would bullseye southern Kansas and Oklahoma lol

I'd be quite nervous in STL and Chicago. There's still a couple days of trend and really until it comes down the Pac NW. Right now it's 2011's groundhog day type track but anymore west+amped in the cluster you're going 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/bx08c1i.gif

Come on now… just dig down into far west Texas

[jaguars_22]

If this were to dig down into Texas what could happen??? Is there any chance at all???? Maybe the models are not picking it up well since it’s still way out…

[Ntxw]

If this were to dig down into Texas what could happen??? Is there any chance at all???? Maybe the models are not picking it up well since it’s still way out…

While a low percentage outcome, it's not impossible. More of the state would be covered ice and snow (mostly snow) which would further allow temperatures to drop even in the south. It is a PVa streamer coming down, topography, cold air, have played spoilers in the past with track in this kind of system. When it's moving west to east the turn usually is predictable, but when it's diving no matter how good a model(s) is until it makes that hard turn forecast busts have happened before.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Please don’t take it that I think that will happen, but we are getting to a point where the trend might bring it within a decent confidence interval.

[Cpv17]

Yeah so that GFS run... honestly I love it. I know the surface low would be at least 100 miles further south-southwest, which with that track would bullseye southern Kansas and Oklahoma lol

I'd be quite nervous in STL and Chicago. There's still a couple days of trend and really until it comes down the Pac NW. Right now it's 2011's groundhog day type track but anymore west+amped in the cluster you're going 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/bx08c1i.gif

Come on now… just dig down into far west Texas

El Paso pretty please!

[Brent]

Yeah so that GFS run... honestly I love it. I know the surface low would be at least 100 miles further south-southwest, which with that track would bullseye southern Kansas and Oklahoma lol

I'd be quite nervous in STL and Chicago. There's still a couple days of trend and really until it comes down the Pac NW. Right now it's 2011's groundhog day type track but anymore west+amped in the cluster you're going 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/bx08c1i.gif

Both those storms were a blizzard here

[SnowintheFalls]

Yeah so that GFS run... honestly I love it. I know the surface low would be at least 100 miles further south-southwest, which with that track would bullseye southern Kansas and Oklahoma lol

I'd be quite nervous in STL and Chicago. There's still a couple days of trend and really until it comes down the Pac NW. Right now it's 2011's groundhog day type track but anymore west+amped in the cluster you're going 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/bx08c1i.gif

Both those storms were a blizzard here

The 2009 blizzard was the most amazing white Christmas I have ever experienced. We got 10 inches here in the Falls.

[davidiowx]

If the pressures verify then all bets are off as far as temps go. If you’re a weather enthusiast then we really need to appreciate what we’re about to experience because a front of this magnitude could be a once in a lifetime type of event.

Models usually lose those kinds of pressures and the temps they have now as we get closer but this is the real deal.

I’m going to be standing outside in a bathing suit when this front arrives! Can’t wait!

You and I both lol.. I’ll have a nice glass of something to keep me warm and I don’t mean hot chocolate

[Brent]

Hopefully we're into that lame model phase right now because nothing tonight looks very exciting here... Cut back on the snow totals

[Ntxw]

Hopefully we're into that lame model phase right now because nothing tonight looks very exciting here... Cut back on the snow totals

You guys want that south trend too .