Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cerlin]

12z GFS is trying to make OKC below freezing from tonight until January 22nd!

[jaguars_22]

Latest gfs also shows a low moving out of the gulf giving coastal Texas some more ice and sleet later in the week

[orangeblood]

I know we're all interested in precip, but guys, we have potentially a legendary stretch of cold especially if the coldest outcomes are favored early on.

Yeah, that GFS run is about as extreme as I've ever seen....3 straight days of single digits in DFW next week, then another potential set of single digits again the following weekend. would shatter numerous January records, energy sector on HIGH ALERT!!!!

This is approaching Feb 21' stretch, that stretch had a 10 day average of 26F below normal at DFW. Right now this lastest GFS 10 day average is 20-25F below normal across portions of Texas, at a colder time of year I might add

[Ntxw]

I know we're all interested in precip, but guys, we have potentially a legendary stretch of cold especially if the coldest outcomes are favored early on.

Yeah, that GFS run is about as extreme as I've ever seen....3 straight days of single digits in DFW next week, then another potential set of single digits again the following weekend. would shatter numerous January records, energy sector on HIGH ALERT!!!!

I would imagine it's how Jan/Feb 1978 was. Not saying this is that, it kept cold air over NA and it was cold wave after cold wave. Several being displacements.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is trying to make OKC below freezing from tonight until January 22nd!

Heyyy! It's good seeing you here again! I think I saw you at OU at some point.

Either way, this is starting to become a major situation. We need to be prepare for extreme cold for possibly at least a week if not more.

[Rgv20]

Some forecast low temperature for the Mid RGV for Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

12zGFS
32--Tuesday Morning
33--Wednesday Morning

12zICON
24--Tuesday Morning
23--Wednesday Morning

12zCMC
26--Tuesday Morning
19--Wednesday Morning

My gut feeling is that low temperatures down here will be in the 28-25 range for both mornings.

[Ntxw]

Because why not.

[Ntxw]

For those along I-20 and north, today is the last 'mild' day. Tomorrow's front will end the party, we're not looking in LaLaland anymore. First chunk of the cold dome tomorrow.

Some forecast low temperature for the Mid RGV for Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

12zGFS
32--Tuesday Morning
33--Wednesday Morning

12zICON
24--Tuesday Morning
23--Wednesday Morning

12zCMC
26--Tuesday Morning
19--Wednesday Morning

My gut feeling is that low temperatures down here will be in the 28-25 range for both mornings.

[orangeblood]

I know we're all interested in precip, but guys, we have potentially a legendary stretch of cold especially if the coldest outcomes are favored early on.

Yeah, that GFS run is about as extreme as I've ever seen....3 straight days of single digits in DFW next week, then another potential set of single digits again the following weekend. would shatter numerous January records, energy sector on HIGH ALERT!!!!

I would imagine it's how Jan/Feb 1978 was. Not saying this is that, it kept cold air over NA and it was cold wave after cold wave. Several being displacements.

https://i.imgur.com/o3ghq0G.png

But this is arguably colder, no single digits during Jan 1978. This has the potential to be much more serious that I had expected...knew the type of anomalies over Greenland we were seeing in the long range would show some extremes but the GFS output now is jaw dropping

[Ntxw]

Yeah, that GFS run is about as extreme as I've ever seen....3 straight days of single digits in DFW next week, then another potential set of single digits again the following weekend. would shatter numerous January records, energy sector on HIGH ALERT!!!!

I would imagine it's how Jan/Feb 1978 was. Not saying this is that, it kept cold air over NA and it was cold wave after cold wave. Several being displacements.

https://i.imgur.com/o3ghq0G.png

But this is arguably colder, no single digits during Jan 1978. This has the potential to be much more serious that I had expected...knew the type of anomalies over Greenland we were seeing in the long range would show some extremes but the GFS output now is way beyond my expectations.

Single digits came in February '78. But yeah, when talking about the individual cold shots it's sharper than anything in '78.

[Ntxw]

Quite possible ends up coldest January since 1985.

[Portastorm]

Given this information, my biggest question: Is wxman57 fueling up his private jet for that trip to the Caribbean?

[Texas Snow]

I think an Avatar change for him is in order

[Ntxw]

[orangeblood]

Just to put more historical context into these models outputs we're witnessing....the 12Z CMC 10 day Model Output is breaking a total of six January DFW records shown in Bold below and possibly more

Date Sunrise
(CST)
a.m. Sunset
(CST)
p.m. Temperature (°F) Precipitation (in.)
Normal Maximum Minimum Month to
Date Year to
Date Record
Snowfall Record
Precipitation
Max Min Avg Highest Lowest Highest Lowest
1 7:31 5:32 56 36 46 83 / 2006 24 / 1979 63 / 2005 10 / 1928 0.09 0.09 1.2 / 1985 1.04 / 1944
2 7:31 5:33 56 36 46 78 / 20231 21 / 1911 64 / 2023 8 / 1911 0.19 0.19 1.0 / 1985 0.79 / 2005
3 7:31 5:34 56 36 46 84 / 20092 19 / 1947 65 / 2004 4 / 1911 0.28 0.28 1.2 / 1942 1.57 / 2005
4 7:31 5:35 56 36 46 81 / 1921 20 / 1947 62 / 1955 4 / 1947 0.37 0.37 1.0 / 1950 3.15 / 1998
5 7:31 5:36 56 36 46 82 / 1927 24 / 1942 56 / 2008 9 / 19473 0.45 0.45 5.0 / 1910 1.28 / 1960
6 7:31 5:36 56 36 46 79 / 1982 27 / 2017 60 / 1907 11 / 1912 0.54 0.54 0.8 / 1988 0.78 / 2016
7 7:32 5:37 56 36 46 83 / 2006 25 / 1968 68 / 2008 6 / 1912 0.62 0.62 0.7 / 1913 2.08 / 1961
8 7:32 5:38 56 36 46 88 / 1969 27 / 19704 64 / 1907 11 / 19765 0.71 0.71 3.2 / 1937 1.95 / 2013
9 7:32 5:39 56 36 46 82 / 1957 22 / 1937 58 / 2020 12 / 19776 0.79 0.79 2.4 / 1962 1.52 / 2013
10 7:32 5:40 56 36 46 83 / 2023 16 / 1962 60 / 1916 7 / 1982 0.87 0.87 3.0 / 1906 1.47 / 2020
11 7:31 5:41 56 36 46 85 / 2023 17 / 1909 67 / 1911 4 / 1918 0.95 0.95 1.1 / 1973 1.53 / 1921
12 7:31 5:41 56 36 46 82 / 2000 18 / 1963 64 / 1911 1 / 1912 1.03 1.03 1.2 / 2003 2.42 / 1950
13 7:31 5:42 56 36 46 78 / 1996 25 / 19977 63 / 1907 7 / 1912 1.11 1.11 1.2 / 1921 1.00 / 2007
14 7:31 5:43 56 36 46 79 / 20228 23 / 1917 63 / 1907 4 / 1964 1.19 1.19 7.8 / 1917 0.78 / 1917
15 7:31 5:44 56 36 46 81 / 2020 31 / 1917 59 / 2020 11 / 1905 1.27 1.27 7.8 / 1964 3.16 / 2017
16 7:31 5:45 56 36 46 81 / 1935 26 / 1953 64 / 1935 11 / 1930 1.36 1.36 4.3 / 1964 2.27 / 2004
17 7:30 5:46 56 36 46 79 / 20239 24 / 1930 64 / 1907 2 / 1930 1.44 1.44 0.7 / 1966 0.59 / 1995
18 7:30 5:47 57 36 46 80 / 192310 26 / 1984 64 / 1907 -1 / 1930 1.53 1.53 3.8 / 1956 1.99 / 1990
19 7:30 5:48 57 36 46 84 / 1952 25 / 1943 60 / 1952 5 / 1943 1.60 1.60 1.7 / 1948 1.77 / 1935
20 7:30 5:49 57 36 46 83 / 1986 22 / 1985 65 / 1906 10 / 1985 1.69 1.69 T / 197911 0.76 / 2007
21 7:29 5:50 57 36 47 79 / 200512 20 / 1935 64 / 1909 7 / 1935 1.77 1.77 4.0 / 1918 3.09 / 1923
22 7:29 5:51 57 36 47 85 / 1909 25 / 194013 61 / 1909 6 / 1918 1.85 1.85 4.0 / 1940 1.95 / 1932
23 7:28 5:52 57 36 47 88 / 1943 23 / 1963 66 / 1909 9 / 1966 1.93 1.93 1.0 / 1926 1.47 / 1938
24 7:28 5:53 57 36 47 82 / 1943 25 / 1948 64 / 1950 9 / 1963 2.01 2.01 4.0 / 1948 1.36 / 1949
25 7:28 5:54 57 36 47 84 / 1952 23 / 1940 63 / 1994 12 / 1940 2.08 2.08 0.1 / 1949 3.54 / 2012
26 7:27 5:54 58 37 47 82 / 1953 30 / 194814 60 / 1994 12 / 1904 2.15 2.15 T / 196315 1.46 / 1916
27 7:26 5:55 58 37 47 81 / 1975 26 / 1961 62 / 1911 12 / 1963 2.22 2.22 1.1 / 1961 0.77 / 2000
28 7:26 5:56 58 37 47 85 / 1903 21 / 1948 67 / 2013 11 / 1948 2.30 2.30 2.4 / 1961 1.73 / 2010
29 7:25 5:57 58 37 47 84 / 1911 21 / 1951 62 / 200216 11 / 196117 2.38 2.38 3.3 / 1936 0.93 / 1999
30 7:25 5:58 58 37 48 86 / 1911 18 / 1951 62 / 1911 8 / 1949 2.46 2.46 4.0 / 1977 1.24 / 1982
31 7:24 5:59 58 37 48 93 / 1911 19 / 1951 64 / 1923 -2 / 1949 2.53 2.53 1.3 / 2023 3.07 / 2002
56.5 36.1 46.3 <-- Normals for month --> 2.53

[txtwister78]

Quite possible ends up coldest January since 1985.

https://i.imgur.com/KETyYHF.png

Man, I remember that year in SA. Young kid playing in over a foot of snow (Jan 12-13th) but the two week stretch of cold was incredible. Schools closed for several days and If I recall we had two snow events that year as well during that period in January. Didn't realize then of course how rare/extreme of an event that was. Helped that we had a ford bronco back then. Lol

[Brent]

Ive already seen a snow map from OKC TV with 4-8 inches here

[bubba hotep]

Just to put more historical context into these models outputs we're witnessing....the 12Z CMC 10 day Model Output is breaking a total of six January DFW records shown in Bold below and possibly more

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gem-all/KDFW/tmp_qpf_snow/1704974400/1704974400-1uB7GeDGNPs.png

Date Sunrise
(CST)
a.m. Sunset
(CST)
p.m. Temperature (°F) Precipitation (in.)
Normal Maximum Minimum Month to
Date Year to
Date Record
Snowfall Record
Precipitation
Max Min Avg Highest Lowest Highest Lowest
1 7:31 5:32 56 36 46 83 / 2006 24 / 1979 63 / 2005 10 / 1928 0.09 0.09 1.2 / 1985 1.04 / 1944
2 7:31 5:33 56 36 46 78 / 20231 21 / 1911 64 / 2023 8 / 1911 0.19 0.19 1.0 / 1985 0.79 / 2005
3 7:31 5:34 56 36 46 84 / 20092 19 / 1947 65 / 2004 4 / 1911 0.28 0.28 1.2 / 1942 1.57 / 2005
4 7:31 5:35 56 36 46 81 / 1921 20 / 1947 62 / 1955 4 / 1947 0.37 0.37 1.0 / 1950 3.15 / 1998
5 7:31 5:36 56 36 46 82 / 1927 24 / 1942 56 / 2008 9 / 19473 0.45 0.45 5.0 / 1910 1.28 / 1960
6 7:31 5:36 56 36 46 79 / 1982 27 / 2017 60 / 1907 11 / 1912 0.54 0.54 0.8 / 1988 0.78 / 2016
7 7:32 5:37 56 36 46 83 / 2006 25 / 1968 68 / 2008 6 / 1912 0.62 0.62 0.7 / 1913 2.08 / 1961
8 7:32 5:38 56 36 46 88 / 1969 27 / 19704 64 / 1907 11 / 19765 0.71 0.71 3.2 / 1937 1.95 / 2013
9 7:32 5:39 56 36 46 82 / 1957 22 / 1937 58 / 2020 12 / 19776 0.79 0.79 2.4 / 1962 1.52 / 2013
10 7:32 5:40 56 36 46 83 / 2023 16 / 1962 60 / 1916 7 / 1982 0.87 0.87 3.0 / 1906 1.47 / 2020
11 7:31 5:41 56 36 46 85 / 2023 17 / 1909 67 / 1911 4 / 1918 0.95 0.95 1.1 / 1973 1.53 / 1921
12 7:31 5:41 56 36 46 82 / 2000 18 / 1963 64 / 1911 1 / 1912 1.03 1.03 1.2 / 2003 2.42 / 1950
13 7:31 5:42 56 36 46 78 / 1996 25 / 19977 63 / 1907 7 / 1912 1.11 1.11 1.2 / 1921 1.00 / 2007
14 7:31 5:43 56 36 46 79 / 20228 23 / 1917 63 / 1907 4 / 1964 1.19 1.19 7.8 / 1917 0.78 / 1917
15 7:31 5:44 56 36 46 81 / 2020 31 / 1917 59 / 2020 11 / 1905 1.27 1.27 7.8 / 1964 3.16 / 2017
16 7:31 5:45 56 36 46 81 / 1935 26 / 1953 64 / 1935 11 / 1930 1.36 1.36 4.3 / 1964 2.27 / 2004
17 7:30 5:46 56 36 46 79 / 20239 24 / 1930 64 / 1907 2 / 1930 1.44 1.44 0.7 / 1966 0.59 / 1995
18 7:30 5:47 57 36 46 80 / 192310 26 / 1984 64 / 1907 -1 / 1930 1.53 1.53 3.8 / 1956 1.99 / 1990
19 7:30 5:48 57 36 46 84 / 1952 25 / 1943 60 / 1952 5 / 1943 1.60 1.60 1.7 / 1948 1.77 / 1935
20 7:30 5:49 57 36 46 83 / 1986 22 / 1985 65 / 1906 10 / 1985 1.69 1.69 T / 197911 0.76 / 2007
21 7:29 5:50 57 36 47 79 / 200512 20 / 1935 64 / 1909 7 / 1935 1.77 1.77 4.0 / 1918 3.09 / 1923
22 7:29 5:51 57 36 47 85 / 1909 25 / 194013 61 / 1909 6 / 1918 1.85 1.85 4.0 / 1940 1.95 / 1932
23 7:28 5:52 57 36 47 88 / 1943 23 / 1963 66 / 1909 9 / 1966 1.93 1.93 1.0 / 1926 1.47 / 1938
24 7:28 5:53 57 36 47 82 / 1943 25 / 1948 64 / 1950 9 / 1963 2.01 2.01 4.0 / 1948 1.36 / 1949
25 7:28 5:54 57 36 47 84 / 1952 23 / 1940 63 / 1994 12 / 1940 2.08 2.08 0.1 / 1949 3.54 / 2012
26 7:27 5:54 58 37 47 82 / 1953 30 / 194814 60 / 1994 12 / 1904 2.15 2.15 T / 196315 1.46 / 1916
27 7:26 5:55 58 37 47 81 / 1975 26 / 1961 62 / 1911 12 / 1963 2.22 2.22 1.1 / 1961 0.77 / 2000
28 7:26 5:56 58 37 47 85 / 1903 21 / 1948 67 / 2013 11 / 1948 2.30 2.30 2.4 / 1961 1.73 / 2010
29 7:25 5:57 58 37 47 84 / 1911 21 / 1951 62 / 200216 11 / 196117 2.38 2.38 3.3 / 1936 0.93 / 1999
30 7:25 5:58 58 37 48 86 / 1911 18 / 1951 62 / 1911 8 / 1949 2.46 2.46 4.0 / 1977 1.24 / 1982
31 7:24 5:59 58 37 48 93 / 1911 19 / 1951 64 / 1923 -2 / 1949 2.53 2.53 1.3 / 2023 3.07 / 2002
56.5 36.1 46.3 <-- Normals for month --> 2.53

The potential has been on the board for a while now. I'm surprised how many on social media took more effort to discredit this potential than to dive into the actual potential. Cluster analysis of the reliable ensembles started to lay this out as a realistic outcome a while ago, and even before that, analog guidance and pattern recognition were showing it.

ETA: for social media, I'm referring to people in positions of authority. I get that there are many out there who hype every potential event, but even then, they usually lack credible analysis.

[Cerlin]

12z GFS is trying to make OKC below freezing from tonight until January 22nd!

Heyyy! It's good seeing you here again! I think I saw you at OU at some point.

Either way, this is starting to become a major situation. We need to be prepare for extreme cold for possibly at least a week if not more.

Say hi next time!!

I’m not as worried about the grid here but I’ve already started to alert folks back down in NTX that they should start preparing—I have zero faith in ERCOT.

[aggiecutter]