Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Yeah, this is just from the GFS and NAM. Not sure what the EC shows yet. The two sets are different in that the GFS keeps the northern trough dominant and never really drags cold air south quickly enough. The Euro still bombs it but just too far east (but still drags the cold air down quickly). That's two rather radical ideals.

[Raebie]

I agree. That looks too far north to my admittedly untrained eye.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I am anxiously awaiting the 12z Euro as well. We should learn quite a bit from this next Euro run. I agree with you Ivanhater in that based on the recent data and trend from the model runs, it looks as though the main precipitation shield with signifcant snowfall potential is going to take place generally along and south of a line of Interstate 85 in Alabama, Georgia and going right through the Carolinas. I would not be surprised to see some light accumulations as far south as the Interstate 16 corridor in Georgia and interior areas of East Central GA into the midlands of SC to Columbia.

[TeresaP]

You guys are fascinating. I have no weather knowledge at all but I love snow. Any ideas on chances for Knoxville, TN? The National Weather Service that covers my area is very conservative since it goes from Chattanooga all the way to the Tri-Cities that border VA plus the Smokies on the TN side. They won't commit to any accumulations yet.

[Dean4Storms]

If the ECM suddenly flips then it will be the first in a long time that I've seen so many runs showing one thing and then it flipped at the last minute. I would chalk it up to the lack of obs of this storm while over the Pacific and maybe it moving it too slowly.

[Raebie]

When does the ECM come out?

[bella_may]

The slower the better

[Brent]

It's out and it's not good. Little or no snow for anyone, maybe a slushy inch for AL/GA/some parts of SC/NC. The trend is horrible, we may very well end up with no snow at all.

[Raebie]

I can't believe it has changed so drastically since the last run.

[sherry]

Well that bites.. I was looking foward to a good snow esp since all school kids are out for Christmas break and could have enjoyed it without worries of snow make up days.

[Raebie]

It's out and it's not good. Little or no snow for anyone, maybe a slushy inch for AL/GA/some parts of SC/NC. The trend is horrible, we may very well end up with no snow at all.

Can you translate that? Where is the latest model showing the bulk of the snowfall occurring?

[bella_may]

Well maybe we'll get some snow in the next month or two. Last year it waited till february and snowed its butt off! It just aint cold enough yet really I mean we set a record high here yesterday of 78 degrees! I got a feeling if these systems keep coming through then when it gets cold enough we'll get some snow!!

[One Eye]

Looks like the low moves too quickly before the cold air and moves out to sea. Looks like a little rain and then more freezing weather for the weekend.

[Brent]

Well...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CST THU DEC 23 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-241900-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
100 PM CST THU DEC 23 2010

...CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW DECREASING FOR CHRISTMAS...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS...BRINGING A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO
SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN BEFORE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR SO WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
NORTHEAST. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MAY FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THIS FORECAST...AND
CERTAINLY THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL LARGE AND LOOMING QUESTIONS. THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

IN ADDITION...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM RAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY MAY FREEZE
RESULTING IN SLICK ROADS. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
TEENS OR LOW 20S AREA WIDE.

$$

12/SIRMON/EBENEZER SCROOGE

[Raebie]

12/SIRMON/EBENEZER SCROOGE

Hehehe...

[Brent]

It's out and it's not good. Little or no snow for anyone, maybe a slushy inch for AL/GA/some parts of SC/NC. The trend is horrible, we may very well end up with no snow at all.

Can you translate that? Where is the latest model showing the bulk of the snowfall occurring?

Well the Euro is a lot faster and weaker, there's going to be serious issues with warm air(possibly being mixed with rain) and getting it to accumulate, QPF is only .20" so an inch may be generous if it's a very light event, most areas will be lucky to get a dusting. It's a broad area, Huntsville, Birmingham, Chattanooga, Atlanta, Greenville, Charlotte, Raleigh, then it goes out to sea. No phase and no blizzard.

Now there is time to change, but the trend is bad, especially when you consider the same Euro yesterday showed up to 2 feet of snow in the same areas... Very well may be NOTHING.

[Brent]

12/SIRMON/EBENEZER SCROOGE

Hehehe...

Yeah that was funny.

[wxman57]

As typically occurs, the precip is long gone once the temps get cold enough for snow along the Gulf Coast states.

[SunnyThoughts]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
145 PM CST THU DEC 23 2010

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A TRANSITION TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA...WHICH WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

[Ivanhater]

Nice to see you pop in Wxman when things are going bad. Where were you when the Euro was showing up to 4 inches for the Panhandle a couple days ago?

Just kidding with you. I am still hoping we can see a Christmas miracle and see that Gulf low phase. The trend is bad; however, the Euro and other models are sooooo close to phasing in for the low to bomb out and set up a heavy snow on the NW side of the low. I guess we will just have to see how it takes shape tomorrow and Saturday.