Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

It appears that I am having at least some success in diverting the Arctic air away from east and southeast Texas. The thickness of the coldest air just wasn't enough to make it all the way across Texas. I think a part of the reason was the relative lack of snow cover to our north. The Arctic air just modified/thinned (depth-wise) too quickly. We may have had a greater snow cover to our north in mid November than we did this week.

[orangeblood]

It appears that I am having at least some success in diverting the Arctic air away from east and southeast Texas. The thickness of the coldest air just wasn't enough to make it all the way across Texas. I think a part of the reason was the relative lack of snow cover to our north. The Arctic air just modified/thinned (depth-wise) too quickly. We may have had a greater snow cover to our north in mid November than we did this week.

Now I do think it may have been a factor, the snow pack depth was deeper this time around compared to November/Sun Angle lower....The wind direction/strength at all levels seems to be the #1 factor this time around, quite a bit more than I've realized in the past. Definitely need to note/document for future outbreaks.

Mid November Snowpack depth



Late December Snowpack depth

[Ralph's Weather]

My family is trying to get back from northern NM because my wife is gonna have our first baby today. Not sure they can make it before the kid gets here with the road conditions through NW Texas.

[TheProfessor]

Might be best to travel around that area of Texas, I wouldn't want to risk traveling on ice, especially your wife and new baby, and Congrats btw!

[wxman57]

Now I do think it may have been a factor, the snow pack depth was deeper this time around compared to November/Sun Angle lower....The wind direction/strength at all levels seems to be the #1 factor this time around, quite a bit more than I've realized in the past. Definitely need to note/document for future outbreaks...snip

Snow depth isn't as significant as coverage area. Coverage was greater in November than prior to this front's movement down the Plains. Upper winds aren't much of a factor. Depth of the cold air to start out with is a big factor.

[gboudx]

:uarrow: Might be best to travel around that area of Texas, I wouldn't want to risk traveling on ice, especially your wife and new baby, and Congrats btw!

I don't think Ralph's wife is in NM, just family who want to be there for the blessed event.

Good luck Ralph! Forget everything you know about good sleep.

[weatherdude1108]

To add to the above, west of I35 and north of I10 it's still quite cold. I'm sitting here on the northwest side of austin at 39 and we haven't been out of the 30s on my weather station for quite a while. You don't have to go very far west of here to get into the mid and lower 30s and in west Texas and eastern New Mexico it's still in the 20s.

The next couple weeks are still looking chilly on he last few model runs. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

I'm in South Cedar Park and finally hit 40 around noon, after a couple days straight in the 30s.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Might be best to travel around that area of Texas, I wouldn't want to risk traveling on ice, especially your wife and new baby, and Congrats btw!

I don't think Ralph's wife is in NM, just family who want to be there for the blessed event.

Good luck Ralph! Forget everything you know about good sleep.

Oh ok, I thought he was in NM lol, I'd still have his family avoid that area though if it's as bad as I have been hearing.

[orangeblood]

Now I do think it may have been a factor, the snow pack depth was deeper this time around compared to November/Sun Angle lower....The wind direction/strength at all levels seems to be the #1 factor this time around, quite a bit more than I've realized in the past. Definitely need to note/document for future outbreaks...snip

Snow depth isn't as significant as coverage area. Coverage was greater in November than prior to this front's movement down the Plains. Upper winds aren't much of a factor. Depth of the cold air to start out with is a big factor.

Gotcha, but considering the strength of the HP and record cold Temps across Colorado/Nebraska isn't it safe to assume it was a fairly deep airmass? And aren't upper level winds the variable that could erode the cold air from the top down? The southwest flow seem to prevent this HP from spreading too far south and east, it appeared to hug the path of least resistance (due to the southwest winds aloft), which was the leeside of the Rockies

[Ralph's Weather]

They are planning on going to Amarillo and staying if they have to until it clears up enough.

[Texas Snowman]

No snow or sleet in Denison out of this, but we did have some freezing rain yesterday morning that coated trees, cars and a bridge or two. Even apparently caused a spin-out that knocked down a traffic sign.

Better yet, we've had light, moderate and even heavy rainfall off and on again over the past 24+ hours with temps in the mid 30s. It just thundered a few times and there is more rain to come. Last time I checked the FW NWS radar precip map, we've had more than an inch of soaking rains here in Denison. Front and back yards are soaked and big, deep puddles are plentiful.

Not a white Christmas or New Year's Day this year, but with a fire in the fireplace, the kiddos home from school and a warm, cozy feeling all around, I'll take it.

[Lagreeneyes03]

If you didn't see any freezing precip this go around don't worry, January looks to be locked and loaded for plenty of winter fun and surprises. The forecast for NTX over the next 10 days looks to keep highs only in the mid to lower 40's.

Precip though? It seems to be, from what I've seen, modeled as pretty dry. Unless I'm missing something.

[gboudx]

I didn't realize how much rain we got until I checked my rain gauge today. From Wednesday to now, 1.8". Not bad.

[gpsnowman]

It's awfully quiet in here today. Nothing next week to talk about? Or is everyone still hungover from New Years?

[TheProfessor]

Getting a nice cold rain here, it may not be as exciting or fun as snow, but it is a billion times better than being dry slotted.

[gboudx]

Getting a nice cold rain here, it may not be as exciting or fun as snow, but it is a billion times better than being dry slotted.

Steve McCauley posted this forecast radar for overnight rain. Definitely not dry slotted.

https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mcc ... 93/?type=1

[orangeblood]

It's awfully quiet in here today. Nothing next week to talk about? Or is everyone still hungover from New Years?

Late next week looks really interesting, IMO....models will have issues handling the massive height rise behind the 1st Arctic High Next week, might see a system form in between the modified 1st arctic high and the second high coming down late next week.

Also, check out the Stratospheric Warming forecast to occur over the next week around Arctic Circle/Greenland...in theory, this should crater the AO, create blocking in the high latitudes and force cold/storms much further south. Last nights Euro Weeklies have this for later this month - showing up in weeks 3 & 4.

Current temps at the 10 hPa level, notice the cold Polar Vortex over Greenland



Then notice the incredible warming in the same area at hour 144, splitting the Polar Vortex

[gpsnowman]

Yes sir. Next week has my interest as well. Maue is still showing a now 1055hp in Nebraska next Wednesday, but the East might get the brunt of it. We'll see.

[Rgv20]

Been stuck in the 40s with light drizzle for 3 straight days! Looks like today high is going to be 47 and is not forecast to break 70 at least for the next 5 days! I really have not taken a good look on the long range models as family and nieces don't really give me a chance! lol Going to take a good look at the models this weekend.

[ronyan]

The 500mb pattern forecast (on the ensembles and the op guidance) looks more like the cold will be displaced to the East, with TX getting modified shots of cold air. Has time to change though.