Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

Given this information, my biggest question: Is wxman57 fueling up his private jet for that trip to the Caribbean?

Given this, I think the CFS will tell him, "Sir, we will help you pack".

[orangeblood]

Just to put more historical context into these models outputs we're witnessing....the 12Z CMC 10 day Model Output is breaking a total of six January DFW records shown in Bold below and possibly more

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gem-all/KDFW/tmp_qpf_snow/1704974400/1704974400-1uB7GeDGNPs.png

Date Sunrise
(CST)
a.m. Sunset
(CST)
p.m. Temperature (°F) Precipitation (in.)
Normal Maximum Minimum Month to
Date Year to
Date Record
Snowfall Record
Precipitation
Max Min Avg Highest Lowest Highest Lowest
1 7:31 5:32 56 36 46 83 / 2006 24 / 1979 63 / 2005 10 / 1928 0.09 0.09 1.2 / 1985 1.04 / 1944
2 7:31 5:33 56 36 46 78 / 20231 21 / 1911 64 / 2023 8 / 1911 0.19 0.19 1.0 / 1985 0.79 / 2005
3 7:31 5:34 56 36 46 84 / 20092 19 / 1947 65 / 2004 4 / 1911 0.28 0.28 1.2 / 1942 1.57 / 2005
4 7:31 5:35 56 36 46 81 / 1921 20 / 1947 62 / 1955 4 / 1947 0.37 0.37 1.0 / 1950 3.15 / 1998
5 7:31 5:36 56 36 46 82 / 1927 24 / 1942 56 / 2008 9 / 19473 0.45 0.45 5.0 / 1910 1.28 / 1960
6 7:31 5:36 56 36 46 79 / 1982 27 / 2017 60 / 1907 11 / 1912 0.54 0.54 0.8 / 1988 0.78 / 2016
7 7:32 5:37 56 36 46 83 / 2006 25 / 1968 68 / 2008 6 / 1912 0.62 0.62 0.7 / 1913 2.08 / 1961
8 7:32 5:38 56 36 46 88 / 1969 27 / 19704 64 / 1907 11 / 19765 0.71 0.71 3.2 / 1937 1.95 / 2013
9 7:32 5:39 56 36 46 82 / 1957 22 / 1937 58 / 2020 12 / 19776 0.79 0.79 2.4 / 1962 1.52 / 2013
10 7:32 5:40 56 36 46 83 / 2023 16 / 1962 60 / 1916 7 / 1982 0.87 0.87 3.0 / 1906 1.47 / 2020
11 7:31 5:41 56 36 46 85 / 2023 17 / 1909 67 / 1911 4 / 1918 0.95 0.95 1.1 / 1973 1.53 / 1921
12 7:31 5:41 56 36 46 82 / 2000 18 / 1963 64 / 1911 1 / 1912 1.03 1.03 1.2 / 2003 2.42 / 1950
13 7:31 5:42 56 36 46 78 / 1996 25 / 19977 63 / 1907 7 / 1912 1.11 1.11 1.2 / 1921 1.00 / 2007
14 7:31 5:43 56 36 46 79 / 20228 23 / 1917 63 / 1907 4 / 1964 1.19 1.19 7.8 / 1917 0.78 / 1917
15 7:31 5:44 56 36 46 81 / 2020 31 / 1917 59 / 2020 11 / 1905 1.27 1.27 7.8 / 1964 3.16 / 2017
16 7:31 5:45 56 36 46 81 / 1935 26 / 1953 64 / 1935 11 / 1930 1.36 1.36 4.3 / 1964 2.27 / 2004
17 7:30 5:46 56 36 46 79 / 20239 24 / 1930 64 / 1907 2 / 1930 1.44 1.44 0.7 / 1966 0.59 / 1995
18 7:30 5:47 57 36 46 80 / 192310 26 / 1984 64 / 1907 -1 / 1930 1.53 1.53 3.8 / 1956 1.99 / 1990
19 7:30 5:48 57 36 46 84 / 1952 25 / 1943 60 / 1952 5 / 1943 1.60 1.60 1.7 / 1948 1.77 / 1935
20 7:30 5:49 57 36 46 83 / 1986 22 / 1985 65 / 1906 10 / 1985 1.69 1.69 T / 197911 0.76 / 2007
21 7:29 5:50 57 36 47 79 / 200512 20 / 1935 64 / 1909 7 / 1935 1.77 1.77 4.0 / 1918 3.09 / 1923
22 7:29 5:51 57 36 47 85 / 1909 25 / 194013 61 / 1909 6 / 1918 1.85 1.85 4.0 / 1940 1.95 / 1932
23 7:28 5:52 57 36 47 88 / 1943 23 / 1963 66 / 1909 9 / 1966 1.93 1.93 1.0 / 1926 1.47 / 1938
24 7:28 5:53 57 36 47 82 / 1943 25 / 1948 64 / 1950 9 / 1963 2.01 2.01 4.0 / 1948 1.36 / 1949
25 7:28 5:54 57 36 47 84 / 1952 23 / 1940 63 / 1994 12 / 1940 2.08 2.08 0.1 / 1949 3.54 / 2012
26 7:27 5:54 58 37 47 82 / 1953 30 / 194814 60 / 1994 12 / 1904 2.15 2.15 T / 196315 1.46 / 1916
27 7:26 5:55 58 37 47 81 / 1975 26 / 1961 62 / 1911 12 / 1963 2.22 2.22 1.1 / 1961 0.77 / 2000
28 7:26 5:56 58 37 47 85 / 1903 21 / 1948 67 / 2013 11 / 1948 2.30 2.30 2.4 / 1961 1.73 / 2010
29 7:25 5:57 58 37 47 84 / 1911 21 / 1951 62 / 200216 11 / 196117 2.38 2.38 3.3 / 1936 0.93 / 1999
30 7:25 5:58 58 37 48 86 / 1911 18 / 1951 62 / 1911 8 / 1949 2.46 2.46 4.0 / 1977 1.24 / 1982
31 7:24 5:59 58 37 48 93 / 1911 19 / 1951 64 / 1923 -2 / 1949 2.53 2.53 1.3 / 2023 3.07 / 2002
56.5 36.1 46.3 <-- Normals for month --> 2.53

The potential has been on the board for a while now. I'm surprised how many on social media took more effort to discredit this potential than to dive into the actual potential. Cluster analysis of the reliable ensembles started to lay this out as a realistic outcome a while ago, and even before that, analog guidance and pattern recognition were showing it.

ETA: for social media, I'm referring to people in positions of authority. I get that there are many out there who hype every potential event, but even then, they usually lack credible analysis.

Yeah, Covid taught me numerous lessons about social media…very few have a clue what they’re talking about (just regurgitate non-sense), bottom line just do your own research and come to your own conclusions!! Actual credible experts are very hard to find

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

Given this information, my biggest question: Is wxman57 fueling up his private jet for that trip to the Caribbean?

Given this, I think the CFS will tell him, "Sir, we will help you pack".

His Wall.

[Harp.1]

The latest GFS frozen precip totals go all the way to the Louisiana gulf coast. There is still hope for your neighbors to the east.

[Fifty Rock]

:uarrow:

Given this information, my biggest question: Is wxman57 fueling up his private jet for that trip to the Caribbean?

Given this, I think the CFS will tell him, "Sir, we will help you pack".

His Wall.

https://i.imgur.com/DouXnc5.gif

that's gonna take a few days to repair................

[Ntxw]

Euro is workable for Texas. Oklahoma is probably not as happy with this run.

[Fifty Rock]

Weatherman 57 Cómo está tu español? Ojalá sea mejor que el mío.

[Stratton23]

Yeah the euro is still way too warm, now its just the mesocale models that matter in terms of surface temperatures

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Long way off, but the GFS has an active SJT for the blast next week.

[Ntxw]

Cold blast #2 from Pacific ridge.

Meanwhile cross polar flow dumps Siberian air from Russia over NW Canada.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Cold blast #2 from Pacific ridge.

Meanwhile cross polar flow dumps Siberian air from Russia over NW Canada.

Technical question. I understand the first cold blast is essentially the TPV, so its not a huge HP bringing down the cold, but next weeks HP is HUGE at 1058, but the temps as it enters the US are much warmer.

Now, i have noticed that the correlation of HP's and temps arent exact, but why are they so different sometimes? Ready for your TedTalk!

[dhweather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/kq0PSPG/Cold.png [/url]

Bad things come in 3's ?

[DW5522]

Already talking about the next cold blast, I like it!

[Fifty Rock]

Euro is workable for Texas. Oklahoma is probably not as happy with this run.

Maybe they can start an Oklahoma Forum and discuss what might have been. Love our Oklahoma friends..

[Ntxw]

Cold blast #2 from Pacific ridge.

Meanwhile cross polar flow dumps Siberian air from Russia over NW Canada.

Technical question. I understand the first cold blast is essentially the TPV, so its not a huge HP bringing down the cold, but next weeks HP is HUGE at 1058, but the temps as it enters the US are much warmer.

Now, i have noticed that the correlation of HP's and temps arent exact, but why are they so different sometimes? Ready for your TedTalk!

The initial North American cold has been dislodged and moderated from the TPV blast. I always look at HPs as the bulldozer patterns. It will shove whatever air is available, typically backside of the TPV, depends on cold air source so it's not a direct 1:1 correlation that stronger HP=more cold. But stronger HP=more shove.

But it could just be that the model does not yet see the cold further out.

[dhweather]

If the 12Z GFS is right, we will struggle in the metroplex to get above 40-45 degrees for the rest of January.


Lord I hope its wrong!

[Brent]

Euro is workable for Texas. Oklahoma is probably not as happy with this run.

Yeah the hype may be going a tad overboard here on the snow lol well see but most of the Tulsa mets haven't even touched Sunday yet probably waiting to clear out the flizzard in the morning again

I am a little concerned it's a little too perfect for sure but I mean considering how the winter has been

[Ntxw]

Euro is workable for Texas. Oklahoma is probably not as happy with this run.

Yeah the hype may be going a tad overboard here on the snow lol well see but most of the Tulsa mets haven't even touched Sunday yet probably waiting to clear out the flizzard in the morning again

I am a little concerned it's a little too perfect for sure but I mean considering how the winter has been

The good thing is it will be very cold. Even a small amount of liquid would yield inches.

[dhweather]

Just a throwback to 2021.

[gboudx]

If the 12Z GFS is right, we will struggle in the metroplex to get above 40-45 degrees for the rest of January.


Lord I hope its wrong!

That sounds glorious. Consider in 6 months we may struggle to get below 82 for lows.