Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2321 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:53 pm

My temp has slowly gone up from 34.1 to 34.9 this evening. Not a big change but not going to ignore it either.

That said even the NWS said they may stay steady or fall slightly tonight so their forecast does not lean on raw model temps in case anyone just thinks we are in for some huge temp surprise with the high of 29 tomorrow. That’s not gonna happen.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2322 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:58 pm

NAM is just like the HRRR with upper 30s in Dallas by morning

even Southern OK goes above freezing. Literally at 18z tomorrow on the NAM which is early afternoon there's only a few pockets near freezing in Central OK and up north of Wichita Falls
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2323 Postby Jarodm12 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:00 pm

Brent wrote:NAM is just like the HRRR with upper 30s in Dallas by morning

even Southern OK goes above freezing. Literally at 18z tomorrow on the NAM which is early afternoon there's only a few pockets near freezing in Central OK and up by Wichita Falls


Do you believe it ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2324 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:01 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:
Brent wrote:NAM is just like the HRRR with upper 30s in Dallas by morning

even Southern OK goes above freezing. Literally at 18z tomorrow on the NAM which is early afternoon there's only a few pockets near freezing in Central OK and up by Wichita Falls


Do you believe it ?


I dunno really... don't want to rule it out though. So many busts before ya know... :lol: I've been a snow skeptic for the metro for a few days now however
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2325 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:04 pm

DFW has also risen a degree in the past hour with no precip. It may be be nothing but it also can’t be ignored.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2326 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:07 pm

Temperatures rising are not good...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2327 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:08 pm

Texas Snow wrote:DFW has also risen a degree in the past hour with no precip. It may be be nothing but it also can’t be ignored.


yeah see I've done this so many years(not in Dallas but elsewhere), I'm one of those people who does believe if all the models show a solution you can probably believe it to a point anyway

Basically while it wouldn't shock me completely if we bust cold and Dallas actually gets some snow, my gut says we'll probably wake up to upper 30s. :lol: See now I won't be so disappointed if it does happen :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2328 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:13 pm

I’m pretty stable, but did tick up .2 degrees. We will see.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2329 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:14 pm

Brent wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:DFW has also risen a degree in the past hour with no precip. It may be be nothing but it also can’t be ignored.


yeah see I've done this so many years(not in Dallas but elsewhere), I'm one of those people who does believe if all the models show a solution you can probably believe it to a point anyway

Basically while it wouldn't shock me completely if we bust cold and Dallas actually gets some snow, my gut says we'll probably wake up to upper 30s. :lol: See now I won't be so disappointed if it does happen :wink:


I hate to believe that but I’m so prepared to. It always happens to us—we’re always so close to magical wintry wonderland without it ever happening.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2330 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:19 pm

Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:DFW has also risen a degree in the past hour with no precip. It may be be nothing but it also can’t be ignored.


yeah see I've done this so many years(not in Dallas but elsewhere), I'm one of those people who does believe if all the models show a solution you can probably believe it to a point anyway

Basically while it wouldn't shock me completely if we bust cold and Dallas actually gets some snow, my gut says we'll probably wake up to upper 30s. :lol: See now I won't be so disappointed if it does happen :wink:


I hate to believe that but I’m so prepared to. It always happens to us—we’re always so close to magical wintry wonderland without it ever happening.


and I want snow as much as anyone but I'm just being realistic... so many times we got our hopes before, its just hard to do it again

but maybe I'll be surprised, I love surprises :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2331 Postby Jarodm12 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:20 pm

Yea.. it's true temps rising although I don't know why it's kind of upsetting Sherman now at 33f, if the model temp rises are to be believed even Durant Oklahoma won't see any snow kind of upsetting looks like the low is on a more northerly trajectory , although I have no idea why the temps are rising
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2332 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:24 pm

Has anyone looked at a sounding to see if there is a warm nose moving in slightly overhead ahead of the low? That could do it I guess as I’m not sure what else would do it with the sun down and north wind and no warm rain currently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2333 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:27 pm

CAA is relaxing and the air mass to our north has moderated during the day, our source of cold air is fading fast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2334 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:29 pm

bubba hotep wrote:CAA is relaxing and the air mass to our north has moderated during the day, our source of cold air is fading fast.

That sucks. Pretty much eliminates snow chances for the Metroplex if I had to guess.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2335 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:40 pm

bubba hotep wrote:CAA is relaxing and the air mass to our north has moderated during the day, our source of cold air is fading fast.


That makes sense and dont forget theres a very quick warmup after this storm 60s this weekend
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2336 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:42 pm

Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:
yeah see I've done this so many years(not in Dallas but elsewhere), I'm one of those people who does believe if all the models show a solution you can probably believe it to a point anyway

Basically while it wouldn't shock me completely if we bust cold and Dallas actually gets some snow, my gut says we'll probably wake up to upper 30s. :lol: See now I won't be so disappointed if it does happen :wink:


I hate to believe that but I’m so prepared to. It always happens to us—we’re always so close to magical wintry wonderland without it ever happening.


and I want snow as much as anyone but I'm just being realistic... so many times we got our hopes before, its just hard to do it again

but maybe I'll be surprised, I love surprises :lol:


Unfortunate timing on moving here was not good. I moved here in 2003 and this is the longest ice/snow drought we’ve had. 2008-2013 was crazy, particularly if you lived in western Collin and Denton county.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2337 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:45 pm

Cerlin wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:CAA is relaxing and the air mass to our north has moderated during the day, our source of cold air is fading fast.

That sucks. Pretty much eliminates snow chances for the Metroplex if I had to guess.


Not necessarily, there will still be dynamic cooling potential as the ULL moves in and through the area. Also, our source of cold air is fading but cloud cover should keep temps stable, so we will probably still see snow mix in or a switch to snow, esp. in heavier bands. It just won't stick around on the surface for long in the warmer areas (this is talking the northern burbs of DFW).
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2338 Postby davidiowx » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:45 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:Yea.. it's true temps rising although I don't know why it's kind of upsetting Sherman now at 33f, if the model temp rises are to be believed even Durant Oklahoma won't see any snow kind of upsetting looks like the low is on a more northerly trajectory , although I have no idea why the temps are rising


Because the cold is with the low as it’s more of a pacific front than a true blue norther. As the Low heads away, so does the cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2339 Postby utweather » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:50 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:I don’t like that the snow will come in after noon or so. That will make accumulation harder.


It makes it easier and safer to chase it though. I'm already up here so if its snowing at a pretty good clip 30 minutes or less a way I think I'm going.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2340 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:51 pm

DFW Stormwatcher wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
I hate to believe that but I’m so prepared to. It always happens to us—we’re always so close to magical wintry wonderland without it ever happening.


and I want snow as much as anyone but I'm just being realistic... so many times we got our hopes before, its just hard to do it again

but maybe I'll be surprised, I love surprises :lol:


Unfortunate timing on moving here was not good. I moved here in 2003 and this is the longest ice/snow drought we’ve had. 2008-2013 was crazy, particularly if you lived in western Collin and Denton county.


I moved here fall 2014 and got spoiled that winter...

It's barely snowed at all since. :lol: Saw more snow in NYC last winter than in the last 3 winters combined here and that wasn't even close to a big storm for them :lol:
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