Texas Winter 2023-2024

[texsn95]

Long way off, but the GFS has an active SJT for the blast next week.

SJT?

[Stratton23]

sub tropical jet

[Ntxw]

Wind advisory up for tomorrow much of the region. Another 30-50mph wind event.

[Tammie]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

[Brent]

Euro is workable for Texas. Oklahoma is probably not as happy with this run.

Yeah the hype may be going a tad overboard here on the snow lol well see but most of the Tulsa mets haven't even touched Sunday yet probably waiting to clear out the flizzard in the morning again

I am a little concerned it's a little too perfect for sure but I mean considering how the winter has been

The good thing is it will be very cold. Even a small amount of liquid would yield inches.

I mean yeah I'm thinking worst case scenario for snow here is probably something like Christmas 22 where it was barely an inch and the cold was far more the story

It still snows just not impressive basically

I did just catch two different mets in the state saying 10 inches possible so there's that lol

My record since I moved here is around 6-7 inches

[Tireman4]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

Well, he works about 5 miles down the street from me (Hobby Airport). I know South Texas Storms works with him. I swear I saw a plane being gassed up on the tarmac ( he may have texted Porta). What does that mean? Not sure...

[rwfromkansas]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

When he goes dark I think he is frantically in work mode trying to prep clients etc. Not sure exactly who he works for, but that is a sign he is taking things more seriously IMO. We may see the avatar change soon.

[wxman57]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

We've had nearly 30 conference calls today, and now we have an active TC in South Indian Ocean. Plus, I just rode my bike back from the Red River, adding a few more bricks to the wall.

Just finished plotting all models from 12Z runs for central Houston. Trend is clouds hanging in longer down here Tuesday, which may not allow the temperature to rise much above freezing. Note that only 6am, 12pm, and 6pm temps are plotted below. High will be around 3pm Tuesday. It all depends on when the clouds break out Tuesday PM. No winter precip for us down here, except for chance of a few sleet pellets Monday night before freezing temps arrive.

NWS National Blend of Models still keeps frozen precip NE of the D-FW area, I see. Note that I am adding in the NAM for my next plot. It only goes out to 6pm Sunday, the start of the plot below. It has 36F for that time, which is way colder than the other models. Those models are likely too slow with the front. Heck, the wacky Canadian has 69F for 6pm Sunday. It's likely WAY too cold for Tue/Wed. Possibly 20F too cold.

[wxman57]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

Well, he works about 5 miles down the street from me (Hobby Airport). I know South Texas Storms works with him. I swear I saw a plane being gassed up on the tarmac ( he may have texted Porta). What does that mean? Not sure...

Our office moved to near Bush airport last year, but we mostly work from home as they continue to build out our operations area up there. Everyone has been working from home since March of 2020. That may change next month for at least one day a week once our new office is functional.

[Stratton23]

Freezing rain threat will extend down into the houston metro, I suspect they will start treating the roads over the next 48 hours or so

[Tireman4]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

Well, he works about 5 miles down the street from me (Hobby Airport). I know South Texas Storms works with him. I swear I saw a plane being gassed up on the tarmac ( he may have texted Porta). What does that mean? Not sure...

Our office moved to near Bush airport last year, but we mostly work from home as they continue to build out our operations area up there. Everyone has been working from home since March of 2020. That may change next month for at least one day a week once our new office is functional.

I see. Well, I guess if I get a grand tour of the place, it will have to be at the new one. ( or do they still not let "people like me" in) (inside joke from him to me..LOL)

[snowballzzz]

I know we're all interested in precip, but guys, we have potentially a legendary stretch of cold especially if the coldest outcomes are favored early on.

The 12Z GFS run is crazy temp wise for us here in Northern Oklahoma. The whole run is practically below 32 degrees.

[Wthrfan]

Euro is workable for Texas. Oklahoma is probably not as happy with this run.

Yeah the hype may be going a tad overboard here on the snow lol well see but most of the Tulsa mets haven't even touched Sunday yet probably waiting to clear out the flizzard in the morning again

I am a little concerned it's a little too perfect for sure but I mean considering how the winter has been

Watched a local Met who said the snow ratio was going to be along the lines of 20:1 in OKC. Hoping that means we get some nice fluffy snow even with limited moisture.

[Wthrfan]

I’m growing very concerned about Wxman57. He’s gone dark. He’s gone silent. With Starlink, Wi-Fi and cell service is pretty much guaranteed even in the most remote places. Is it time to ask for proof of life???

Love your humor Tammie! 57 seems to take the warmest model, add 10 degrees and his warmest thoughts to it!

[dhweather]

Painful, that's all I can say.

[Fifty Rock]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo ... k_2000.gif

So much cold talk, I haven't seen anything about the severe weather potential.

[Gotwood]

Painful, that's all I can say.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/QQc7rMQ/Screen-Shot-2024-01-11-at-2-05-22-PM.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/yYzXckK/Screen-Shot-2024-01-11-at-2-01-13-PM.png [/url]

Very real possibility it stays below freezing that first half. This is going to be a wild ride.

[Brent]

Tulsa going all in it appears

Sunday
Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then cloudy with snow showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy blowing snow in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Colder with highs around 10 above. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 10 below.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Patchy blowing snow in the evening. Snow showers likely, mainly in the evening. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Cold with lows around zero. Chance of snow 60 percent. Wind chill values as low as 20 below.

[CaptinCrunch]

Tulsa going all in it appears

Sunday
Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then cloudy with snow showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy blowing snow in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Colder with highs around 10 above. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 10 below.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Patchy blowing snow in the evening. Snow showers likely, mainly in the evening. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Cold with lows around zero. Chance of snow 60 percent. Wind chill values as low as 20 below.

unfortunately most of that snow is going to end up in NTX, sucks for you, but it is what it is

[gpsnowman]

For the football watchers the Chiefs Dolphins game is going to be incredibly cold on Sunday. One of the coldest in NFL history. Ouch. I'll have an all day fire while watching the playoffs.