Texas Winter 2010-2011

[orangeblood]

Todays 12Z ECMWF run = Winter Storm Train for the southern plains over the next 10 days.

The +PNA is really starting to take control of the pattern

[Ntxw]

Todays 12Z ECMWF run = Winter Storm Train for the southern plains over the next 10 days.

The +PNA is really starting to take control of the pattern

Prolonged period of +PNA too. So even without the brutal cold air to the north, we'd still have plenty of weather to talk about. We are in the middle of winter also so won't take much!

[srainhoutx]

Dallas/Ft Worth says no to wintry weather...for now...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND RESULT IN A
BRIEF WARM UP WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MIX OF WINTER PRECIP AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURE
PROFILES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

[Texas2Florida]

Why would the cold air coming first cause no precip with the trough? would that not be a cause of winter weather..cold air in place first?

[orangeblood]

Well it appears that most if not all models are pointing towards any significant winter weather to be confined to north of the Red River. There might be a few light sleet/freezing rain showers move through the northern 1/3 of North Texas into Northeast Texas but nothing that would cause any problems.

Now, on to the next event: The Euro, GFS, and even some of the GFS ensembles have been hinting at a storm moving through around the Sunday/Monday time period. If this storm did move through the southern plains, the biggest question I have is will there be enough cold air around ? I think the answer would be yes - due to any cold air that is around to our north wouldn't modify too much considering the deep snow pack and time of year we are in.

Just something to look forward to considering this weeks event becoming less and less appealing.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

MJO is on the move towards 7/8. With a +PNA, a trough will likely continue in the center of the nation with the southern plains at the base of it, a winter weather event in the near future appears likely imo.

[wxman57]

Why would the cold air coming first cause no precip with the trough? would that not be a cause of winter weather..cold air in place first?

I'm not sure what you're asking. The big question I have is "are the models correct with the projected southward extent of the sub-freezing air ahead of the trof axis while precip is falling?" If the current models are correct, then very little precip falls after the low-level temperatures drop below freezing. That's why the DFW NWS office isn't going for any freezing rain/sleet there yet.

However, if there is a shallow layer of sub-freezing Arctic air moving south toward Texas on Wednesday well in advance of the upper trof, then the models would probably fail in predicting the southward extent of the sub-freezing near-surface layer from this far out. I've seen this happen many times over the past 30 years - is this one of those times when the models are completely clueless as far as the frontal position on Thursday morning? That could be. That question will be easier to answer once we can follow the cold air southward in the next 24-48 hrs.

And if the models aren't driving the sub-freezing near-surface layer far enough south ahead of the upper trof, then central to NE TX into southern OK may see some significant freezing rain and sleet during the day on Thursday as the upper trof axis approaches and passes.

[Portastorm]

Well it appears that most if not all models are pointing towards any significant winter weather to be confined to north of the Red River. There might be a few light sleet/freezing rain showers move through the northern 1/3 of North Texas into Northeast Texas but nothing that would cause any problems.

Now, on to the next event: The Euro, GFS, and even some of the GFS ensembles have been hinting at a storm moving through around the Sunday/Monday time period. If this storm did move through the southern plains, the biggest question I have is will there be enough cold air around ? I think the answer would be yes - due to any cold air that is around to our north wouldn't modify too much considering the deep snow pack and time of year we are in.

Just something to look forward to considering this weeks event becoming less and less appealing.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

OK, I think we've got you down for a prediction of "no event in Texas this week." Good luck with your forecast.

[orangeblood]

Why would the cold air coming first cause no precip with the trough? would that not be a cause of winter weather..cold air in place first?

I'm not sure what you're asking. The big question I have is "are the models correct with the projected southward extent of the sub-freezing air ahead of the trof axis while precip is falling?" If the current models are correct, then very little precip falls after the low-level temperatures drop below freezing. That's why the DFW NWS office isn't going for any freezing rain/sleet there yet.

However, if there is a shallow layer of sub-freezing Arctic air moving south toward Texas on Wednesday well in advance of the upper trof, then the models would probably fail in predicting the southward extent of the sub-freezing near-surface layer from this far out. I've seen this happen many times over the past 30 years - is this one of those times when the models are completely clueless as far as the frontal position on Thursday morning? That could be. That question will be easier to answer once we can follow the cold air southward in the next 24-48 hrs.

And if the models aren't driving the sub-freezing near-surface layer far enough south ahead of the upper trof, then central to NE TX into southern OK may see some significant freezing rain and sleet during the day on Thursday as the upper trof axis approaches and passes.

wxman57 - Even if the front did arrive earlier than depicted by most models, wouldn't you still need the upper dynamics to shift further south as well in order to cause a "significant" freezing rain and sleet event across central into NE TX ?

These models are normally fairly accurate with upper dynamics within the 72 hour range, it's the shallow/ground level modeling that is tougher for them to handle ?

[Ntxw]

Check out what the 18z GFS is showing for early next week. Same predicaments as the CMC and EURO are hinting at.

[iorange55]

I don't know, I'm not really hopeful for either of these events. Just doesn't look like a promising situation but after that I'm hopeful.

[Ntxw]

I don't know, I'm not really hopeful for either of these events. Just doesn't look like a promising situation but after that I'm hopeful.

Keep faith iorange55! You'll be disappointed a lot with all of these chances, but one will eventually hit the home run. That's what all of last year was. A lot of near misses but with so many eventually it gave in a few times!

[wxman57]

wxman57 - Even if the front did arrive earlier than depicted by most models, wouldn't you still need the upper dynamics to shift further south as well in order to cause a "significant" freezing rain and sleet event across central into NE TX ?

These models are normally fairly accurate with upper dynamics within the 72 hour range, it's the shallow/ground level modeling that is tougher for them to handle ?

No, simple isentropic lift would be plenty to cause widespread light precipitation in the sub-freezing layer. It would only take a steady drizzle to result in significant accumulations.

[orangeblood]

Well it appears that most if not all models are pointing towards any significant winter weather to be confined to north of the Red River. There might be a few light sleet/freezing rain showers move through the northern 1/3 of North Texas into Northeast Texas but nothing that would cause any problems.

Now, on to the next event: The Euro, GFS, and even some of the GFS ensembles have been hinting at a storm moving through around the Sunday/Monday time period. If this storm did move through the southern plains, the biggest question I have is will there be enough cold air around ? I think the answer would be yes - due to any cold air that is around to our north wouldn't modify too much considering the deep snow pack and time of year we are in.

Just something to look forward to considering this weeks event becoming less and less appealing.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

OK, I think we've got you down for a prediction of "no event in Texas this week." Good luck with your forecast.

Just calling it like I see it - all models are coming to a consensus about this event and have been trending that way for the past few days. Just to clarify, a "significant event" by North Texas standards to me is anything greater than 1" of snow/ 0.10 inch of ice. Portastorm, Do you have a forecast of your own in mind?

[orangeblood]

wxman57 - Even if the front did arrive earlier than depicted by most models, wouldn't you still need the upper dynamics to shift further south as well in order to cause a "significant" freezing rain and sleet event across central into NE TX ?

These models are normally fairly accurate with upper dynamics within the 72 hour range, it's the shallow/ground level modeling that is tougher for them to handle ?

No, simple isentropic lift would be plenty to cause widespread light precipitation in the sub-freezing layer. It would only take a steady drizzle to result in significant accumulations.

Thanks for the feedback, I guess we just differ on what we consider "significant"

[srainhoutx]

Low tracks are out via the HPC through 12Z Thursday...

[Portastorm]

Just calling it like I see it - all models are coming to a consensus about this event and have been trending that way for the past few days. Just to clarify, a "significant event" by North Texas standards to me is anything greater than 1" of snow/ 0.10 inch of ice. Portastorm, Do you have a forecast of your own in mind?

And that is fine ... I understand you're calling it as you see it. You made several strong statements today about this being, in my own paraphrase, much ado about nothing. And I was merely wishing you good luck with your forecast as I would for anyone else who has the courage to go out there and make a statement.

Brandon8181 and you are the only two I know of who have put out a forecast for this week. He is more bullish on the event.

Do I have a forecast? Well, I posted comments last Friday that I felt parts of Texas would experience a winter storm before this week is over and I still stand by those comments. I did not get specific about accumulation amounts or locations. Obviously the Panhandle and north Texas are at greatest risk.

[Portastorm]

In other S2K news ... congratulations to our own Ntxw for being Member of the Month!!

[Brandon8181]

Just calling it like I see it - all models are coming to a consensus about this event and have been trending that way for the past few days. Just to clarify, a "significant event" by North Texas standards to me is anything greater than 1" of snow/ 0.10 inch of ice. Portastorm, Do you have a forecast of your own in mind?

And that is fine ... I understand you're calling it as you see it. You made several strong statements today about this being, in my own paraphrase, much ado about nothing. And I was merely wishing you good luck with your forecast as I would for anyone else who has the courage to go out there and make a statement.

Brandon8181 and you are the only two I know of who have put out a forecast for this week. He is more bullish on the event.

Do I have a forecast? Well, I posted comments last Friday that I felt parts of Texas would experience a winter storm before this week is over and I still stand by those comments. I did not get specific about accumulation amounts or locations. Obviously the Panhandle and north Texas are at greatest risk.

YES! And you can sign me in for the one forecasting 10 inches of sleet and snow Thu! No just kidding lol

I do, still feel like some areas of North central, and north east Texas particularly will get a chance for a winter mix. However, my confidence has somewhat decreased on the magnitude of this event.

[iorange55]

In other S2K news ... congratulations to our own Ntxw for being Member of the Month!!

A very deserving MOTM! We need to have an award show pretty soon. All kinds of categories, and hopefully the MSU guy from last year will make a surprise appearance to accept his award for "Craziest prediction ever to come true"