Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

Next weekend needs to be monitored closely, particularly with the College Football Championship game in the metroplex....with plenty of Arctic Air now in the pattern and being continually reinforced, if some of the energy in the subtopics decides to eject out things could get interesting

Yeah I was speculating about that very thing. We will most definitely have several bouts with Arctic air across Texas in the next week. You always wonder about upper level shortwave "surprises." Often they yield nothing more than some clouds due to a lack of available moisture. But stranger things have happened.

And speaking of which ... check out that 12z GFS rolling in now. Heh ...

[srainhoutx]

Next weekend needs to be monitored closely, particularly with the College Football Championship game in the metroplex....with plenty of Arctic Air now in the pattern and being continually reinforced, if some of the energy in the subtopics decides to eject out things could get interesting

Yeah I was speculating about that very thing. We will most definitely have several bouts with Arctic air across Texas in the next week. You always wonder about upper level shortwave "surprises." Often they yield nothing more than some clouds due to a lack of available moisture. But stranger things have happened.

And speaking of which ... check out that 12z GFS rolling in now. Heh ...

Hard freeze to the Middle/Upper Texas Coast and Coastal Louisiana if the upper air disturbance doesn't move in too quickly early Thursday morning.

[Ntxw]

Yeah looks like this next arctic air mass is aimed more towards the east than west so it seems the eastern half of the state gets in on the action, teens at least. Looks dry at this time though but we'll see.

[Tireman4]

What is the 11-13th progged?

[srainhoutx]

What is the 11-13th progged?

Temperatures in the 30's and 40's with a potential Coastal trough offshore, but I would caution this is still way too far out to know with any certainty. That is for the Upper Texas Coast Tireman4...

[gpsnowman]

What is the 11-13th progged?

I was just about to ask that. I will be in San Marcos that weekend and then the NCAA and fans travel to Arlington for the game Monday. Jerry Jones has a history of winter getting in the way of his events.

[Big O]

Taking a look at the long-range models and teleconnection indices, it appears that after this coming week's cold (1/5 - 1/10), we (Texas) should moderate, but only for a short amount of time. The European weeklies control run is a thing of beauty for all, but WxMan 57. Days 16-25 show cold temperatures relative to normal. There is then a brief let-up (average temperatures) from 1/26 to 1/27. Thereafter, from 1/28 - 2/2, temperatures are depicted as very cold, and from 1/29 - 2/1, there is bitterly cold air in the Southern Plains (centered over Texas), with temperature anomalies off the color chart. If this were to verify (always difficult to do exactly), we could see mean 850 (not surface) temperature anomalies over the entire state of 21 degrees Celsius, which I believe translates to 37.8 degrees Farenheit.

The European ensembles show the AO trending towards neutral and possibly negative by Day 10, the PNA trending towards positive, the EPO remaining negative (but possibly neutral), the WPO remaining negative, and the NAO positive to neutral. This in conjunction with the potential SSW event raises the possibility of anomalously cold weather for Texas and the Southern Plains in the long-term. The one caveat is that this is still extremely long-range and the models are notorious for flipping back and forth.

[Tireman4]

What is the 11-13th progged?

Temperatures in the 30's and 40's with a potential Coastal trough offshore, but I would caution this is still way too far out to know with any certainty. That is for the Upper Texas Coast Tireman4...

Yes sir. We shall see...

[Ntxw]

Looks like some -40s showing up along the Yukon/Alaskan border currently so source region seems colder than the last go round.

GFS has dewpoints below 0 in the -15 to -17 range with clear skies. Should be optimal conditions for lows to really dip underneath HP

[ronyan]

Taking a look at the long-range models and teleconnection indices, it appears that after this coming week's cold (1/5 - 1/10), we (Texas) should moderate, but only for a short amount of time. The European weeklies control run is a thing of beauty for all, but WxMan 57. Days 16-25 show cold temperatures relative to normal. There is then a brief let-up (average temperatures) from 1/26 to 1/27. Thereafter, from 1/28 - 2/2, temperatures are depicted as very cold, and from 1/29 - 2/1, there is bitterly cold air in the Southern Plains (centered over Texas), with temperature anomalies off the color chart. If this were to verify (always difficult to do exactly), we could see mean 850 (not surface) temperature anomalies over the entire state of 21 degrees Celsius, which I believe translates to 69.8 degrees Farenheit.

The European ensembles show the AO trending towards neutral and possibly negative by Day 10, the PNA trending towards positive, the EPO remaining negative (but possibly neutral), the WPO remaining negative, and the NAO positive to neutral. This in conjunction with the potential SSW event raises the possibility of anomalously cold weather for Texas and the Southern Plains in the long-term. The one caveat is that this is still extremely long-range and the models are notorious for flipping back and forth.

-70F anomalies in TX? 21C anomaly = 37.8F anomaly (direct conversion is C * 1.8). Still very cold but at least it's possible for TX, don't think 70 would be unless we were going into the next ice age.

[ronyan]

Here's a look at the temps in the Yukon territory and the rest of Canada:
-40s is what you would look for in Canada for serious arctic outbreak potential in the US.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from the Weather Prediction Center regarding our mid week strong blast of very cold air...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 06 2015 - 12Z SAT JAN 10 2015

...COLD BLAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHERN STATES
MIDWEEK...


...OVERVIEW...

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL PRODUCE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF
THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA... AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL FIND A WEAKNESS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AND PAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...

ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK THANKS TO A FAIRLY PREDICTABLE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A BLEND OF
THE 06Z PARALLEL GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A GOOD
STARTING POINT TO THE FORECAST. RECENT 00Z/06Z OPERATIONAL GFS
RUNS SEEMED TO SUFFER FROM CONTINUITY ISSUES OVER ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC... MAKING THEIR USE LIMITED IN THE WESTERN DOMAIN.
FARTHER EAST... STRENGTH/LOCATION OF IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WAS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE -- IMPACTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
NEAR 1060MB HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED MONTHLY MAXIMUM VALUES FOR THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ON TUESDAY THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SWATH OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE EXITING
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE... THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR SUPPORTS LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. CORE OF 850 TEMP ANOMALIES SHOULD SPLIT E-W... ONE
CHUNK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
OTHER OVER TEXAS -- STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES IN THE -2 TO -3.5 SIGMA
RANGE WILL SUPPORT LOWS NEAR FREEZING TO THE GULF COAST.

WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD MIDWEEK... HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 15-30F BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AS THE
STRONG HIGH SINKS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY 10-15F.

IN CONTRAST... TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BE ABOUT 10-15F ABOVE
AVERAGE... WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE STRONG INVERSIONS WILL
LIMIT THE OTHERWISE BROAD-SCALE WARMUP. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE PAC NW LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SW SHOULD STAY DRY.


FRACASSO/VOJTESAK

[Rgv20]

12zGFS showing some light frozen precipitation on Thursday close to South Texas! It looks like the models are trending colder with temperatures for Thursday.

[Portastorm]

I neglected to mention we had some nice, heavy showers last night with an imbedded thunderstorm. Picked up 1.14" of liquid gold. Always a good thing in these parts.

[gpsnowman]

I am wondering if we will start seeing a slow migration westward with the cold in future model runs. This week was all west and it appears next week could be the east. Hopefully we will see the models trend in our favor.

[ronyan]

Had a decent amount of rain here near the coast, 0.49" total since yesterday.

If a 1060mb high moves into the US with -40s in Canada, there will be some extreme cold in the plains and points east next week.

[Big O]

Taking a look at the long-range models and teleconnection indices, it appears that after this coming week's cold (1/5 - 1/10), we (Texas) should moderate, but only for a short amount of time. The European weeklies control run is a thing of beauty for all, but WxMan 57. Days 16-25 show cold temperatures relative to normal. There is then a brief let-up (average temperatures) from 1/26 to 1/27. Thereafter, from 1/28 - 2/2, temperatures are depicted as very cold, and from 1/29 - 2/1, there is bitterly cold air in the Southern Plains (centered over Texas), with temperature anomalies off the color chart. If this were to verify (always difficult to do exactly), we could see mean 850 (not surface) temperature anomalies over the entire state of 21 degrees Celsius, which I believe translates to 69.8 degrees Farenheit.

The European ensembles show the AO trending towards neutral and possibly negative by Day 10, the PNA trending towards positive, the EPO remaining negative (but possibly neutral), the WPO remaining negative, and the NAO positive to neutral. This in conjunction with the potential SSW event raises the possibility of anomalously cold weather for Texas and the Southern Plains in the long-term. The one caveat is that this is still extremely long-range and the models are notorious for flipping back and forth.

-70F anomalies in TX? 21C anomaly = 37.8F anomaly (direct conversion is C * 1.8). Still very cold but at least it's possible for TX, don't think 70 would be unless we were going into the next ice age.

Sorry about that. I corrected the error. But, as you noted, that it still very cold.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro has a 1047mb High over N Texas Wednesday night/early Thursday. Plenty of cold air damming along the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountain Range into the Rio Grande Valley.

[Texas Snowman]

Going to Indianapolis midweek for business.

Not sure I've got enough long johns to pack for subzero lows and single digit highs.

Good bike riding weather, don't you know!

[Rgv20]

The 12Z Euro has a 1047mb High over N Texas Wednesday night/early Thursday. Plenty of cold air damming along the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountain Range into the Rio Grande Valley.

12zGFS forecast pretty descent moisture in the Sierra Madre Montains by Thursday Morning!