Texas Winter 2018-2019

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2341 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:53 pm

I also moved here in 2014. I was spoiled that year. Bought a home in 2015...and it hasn’t properly snowed or even iced here once beyond tiny stuff like a few icicles today or a dusting of snow.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2342 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:55 pm

I’ve lived here all my life but I’m new blood, so I’ve always loved snow but I’ve only been into weather tracking since the winter of 15-16...and we haven’t had a real snowstorm since I’ve followed along. Maybe I’m jinxing it?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2343 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:58 pm

Cerlin wrote:I’ve lived here all my life but I’m new blood, so I’ve always loved snow but I’ve only been into weather tracking since the winter of 15-16...and we haven’t had a real snowstorm since I’ve followed along. Maybe I’m jinxing it?


what a terrible first winter :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2344 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:59 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Not necessarily, there will still be dynamic cooling potential as the ULL moves in and through the area. Also, our source of cold air is fading but cloud cover should keep temps stable, so we will probably still see snow mix in or a switch to snow, esp. in heavier bands. It just won't stick around on the surface for long in the warmer areas (this is talking the northern burbs of DFW).


Yep this is why I mentioned that, in my opinion, was that our best shot was the low drifting a little further south.

I just want to see snow fly at this point, even if it doesn’t stick. It doesn’t have to be 32 for that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2345 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:06 pm

My temp started dropping again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2346 Postby Jarodm12 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:10 pm

Sherman is dropping so is Durant I'm at 31 now
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2347 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:12 pm

Pretty big north shift on the NAMs, showing big time totals across portions of Central Oklahoma.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2348 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:23 pm

Well hell, these trends aren’t looking good at all. I’ve spent enough time on this today. I’ll get some sleep and see if we get some surprises tomorrow.

(although I may keep one eye open to take a peak for the 9:45ish NWS update)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2349 Postby Jarodm12 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:25 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Pretty big north shift on the NAMs, showing big time totals across portions of Central Oklahoma.


Lol NWS Norman just increased Durant's snowfall to 2-4 in" what model are they looking at lmao
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2350 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:25 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Pretty big north shift on the NAMs, showing big time totals across portions of Central Oklahoma.


Yep, looks pretty similar to the Euro now. Chances for snowfall accumulations are increasing in Oklahoma. They deserve it after busting bad a few weeks ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2351 Postby Jarodm12 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:28 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
919 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Challenging forecast continues this evening as we continue to
closely look at trends in both models and observational data.

Have raised precip chances overnight, but kept precip types
similar to prev forecast. Still with much of the area hovering
near the freezing line, both at the surface and aloft, precip
types are a challenge.

Latest thinking is that potential for heaviest snow amounts will
be from portions of southwest into south central Oklahoma on
Thursday with a tight gradient near the I-40 corridor of central
Oklahoma, including the OKC metro. Could also see a transition
back to rain across parts of western into central Oklahoma
Thursday evening as colder core of upper low transitions east into
northeast Texas.

Updates to forecast have been sent. No changes to headlines at
this time
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2352 Postby TXdaddy217 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:29 pm

Happy New Year all !!

Currently 28 degrees and freezing rain here in Abilene. WWA posted until 6PM Thursday. 2-4 inches possible in our area.

Hope everyone posting can get a little bit of winter fun from this event. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2353 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:38 pm

Welp here it is. Still looks like we will see some flakes in DFW but with rain. Just need a few wintertime dreams tonight for a southern shift or some convective bands and dynamic cooling to help it along

000
FXUS64 KFWD 030319
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
919 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019


.UPDATE...
Overall the forecast remains on track, but we have made a few
minor modifications to the timing and character of the
precipitation during the next 24-30 hours.

The upper level low is currently entering Texas from the west and
will result in strong warm advection above the frontal layer and
forcing for ascent will create an environment conducive for
elevated convection. Enough instability looks to exist to include
a mention of isolated thunderstorms over the western and
northwestern zones between midnight and 6 am when the radar scope
will become much more active over the CWA. Have delayed the onset
of snow in the western CWA until after 6am, as this first round
will likely be mainly rain and bursts of sleet. Some sleet (or
graupel) may occur as far east as the I-35 corridor by daybreak in
some of the heavier convective elements. We expect very little
change in surface temperatures overnight and our main concern for
travel issues continues to be the locations in the winter weather
advisory and winter storm warning. Bridges and overpasses will be
most susceptible to ice over, but it`s likely that some surface
roads will become treacherous especially where the heavier
precipitation falls. Locations outside of the advisory should stay
above freezing with little or no impacts, however that doesn`t
mean some light icing of elevated objects or a brief episode of
sleet won`t occur...just that we don`t anticipate impacts.

For the far western and northwestern zones...sufficient cooling
of the column below freezing should occur by daybreak and lead to
some heavier amounts of snow as discussed in the afternoon
discussion. The only minor change is that more of this precip may
fall as sleet at the expense of snow amounts. Still a half inch
of sleet is as impactful as 4 inches of snow. Regardless of the
ratio of sleet to snow accumulation, it will be impactful,
especially in the winter storm warning area where travel may be
difficult or very hazardous at times.

The other changes to the forecast were to slow the timing of the
change over from rain to snow in the I-35 corridor and keep the
mention as a mix of rain and snow and not all snow. It looks like
the DFW area northward will have a chance to see a rain snow mix
right around midday Thursday before a dry slot moves into the
region and ends all precipitation generally along and south of
I-20 for the afternoon and evening hours. Wrap around precip is
likely along and north of Highway 380 during this time. This wrap-
around precipitation will try to work its way southward and back
into the DFW area and locations east of there around midnight
Thursday night which will bring a renewed chance of a rain/snow
mix. For the DFW area and locations northeast and east of there,
surface temperatures should be above freezing during this round as
well and thus limit accumulations or impacts. Therefore we see no
reason to expand the advisory eastward from its current
configuration.

TR.92
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2354 Postby SnowintheFalls » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:32 pm

Freezing rain is coming down pretty heavily here in Wichita Falls. Wrecks are happening all over I-44 and in town. Weather Channel and CBS morning show are in town so we are getting national attention. They are calling for 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow so we shall see!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2355 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:44 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:Freezing rain is coming down pretty heavily here in Wichita Falls. Wrecks are happening all over I-44 and in town. Weather Channel and CBS morning show are in town so we are getting national attention. They are calling for 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow so we shall see!

Temps rising slightly out this way. From 29.8 to 30.8 now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2356 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:06 am

Dew point and temp now rising again..a sign the models may be right. Do not see dropping to 32 tonight now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2357 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:31 am

the RGEM also keeps the snow away from the metro and it was one of the better models for the metro and the majority stays west of 35 even north of DFW
Last edited by Brent on Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2358 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:33 am

Brent wrote:the RGEM also keeps the snow away from the metro other than maybe some stray flakes and it was one of the better models for the metro and the majority stays west of 35 even north of DFW
i don't look at that forecast model.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2359 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:33 am

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:the RGEM also keeps the snow away from the metro other than maybe some stray flakes and it was one of the better models for the metro and the majority stays west of 35 even north of DFW
i don't look at that forecast model.

Why not? It can be a good model for complicated winter storms.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2360 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:44 am

What is it about the DFW area that the snow lines go diagonally from let's say Sherman to Lampasas and stay about 50 miles west? ALL the time. We can get a cold front with storms or dry air to push all the way down to Houston but god forbid us get some winter weather these days. Is it topography or the gulf is just too strong (although it seems very far for that to happen) It's just odd to me that it's like this always.
Last edited by Lagreeneyes03 on Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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