Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Cpv17]

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1611835200-rfcG4AugGYU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1611835200-tg5RPpfuxas.png

Big fight in between. Does the cold eventually win out? Perhaps, but probably not sustained cold with that kind of negative indicator showing up from the PNA. Stout ridge anchored over the SE trying to keep the cold air from advancing too far south and east. Not a great signal for precip with the PNA that negative either across Texas.

That PNA chart is ugly!! Maybe it’ll be wrong. Sure hope so.

[Iceresistance]

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1611835200-rfcG4AugGYU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1611835200-tg5RPpfuxas.png

Big fight in between. Does the cold eventually win out? Perhaps, but probably not sustained cold with that kind of negative indicator showing up from the PNA. Stout ridge anchored over the SE trying to keep the cold air from advancing too far south and east. Not a great signal for precip with the PNA that negative either across Texas.

Does this mean we could have a -AO, -NAO, -EPO & -PNA?

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS-Para is NASTY COLD by the 2nd Week of February (Goes on 12-hour mode not long after, so the snow totals are unknown & the animation is also a no-go for now when it's at the 12-hour mode)

EDIT: Forgot to say that this will stick around FOR WEEKS!! Below Freezing all day in Oklahoma.

Monday, February 8th

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS really wants a very long term chill across the Plains, also wants a Very Neutral PNA, but the AO, NAO, & EPO Negative

[Quixotic]

1989 redux?

[gboudx]

DFW NWS already showing a graphic titled “Colder in 8 to 10”.

[Iceresistance]

DFW NWS already showing a graphic titled “Colder in 8 to 10”.


http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full8.jpg

Uh oh, if a Texas NWS is saying that this could happen . . .

[gboudx]

DFW NWS already showing a graphic titled “Colder in 8 to 10”.


http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full8.jpg

Uh oh, if a Texas NWS is saying that this could happen . . .

Yep. Its doa now. Gonna be record highs instead.

[Iceresistance]

DFW NWS already showing a graphic titled “Colder in 8 to 10”.


http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full8.jpg

Uh oh, if a Texas NWS is saying that this could happen . . .

Yep. Its doa now. Gonna be record highs instead.

Oh come on! You're ruining the fun here!

[Iceresistance]

Even though that this news channel (KFOR News 4) is from Oklahoma, the next potental winter storm 8-10 days away like NWS-Fort Worth said.

[Haris]

Looks like 0z GFS is about to be a big Texas snowstorm around day 9


Edit: Ehhh not much but a decent signature. Light snow/ice across Texas for a bit

[Cpv17]

Looks like 0z GFS is about to be a big Texas snowstorm around day 9


Edit: Ehhh not much but a decent signature. Light snow/ice across Texas for a bit

Well we need the cold first. Plenty of time to work on the precip part.

[txtwister78]

Man that would leave a mark.

[Cpv17]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1611878400/1612720800-1rOd705uyUE.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1611878400/1612807200-llvoJCSrhwg.png

Man that would leave a mark.

That looks awesome!

[bubba hotep]

That is one crazy 00z GFS run... 3 to 4 days below freezing with some of the northern burbs of DFW pushing 0F during the coldest stretch.

[Cpv17]

That is one crazy 00z GFS run... 3 to 4 days below freezing with some of the northern burbs of DFW pushing 0F during the coldest stretch.

1057 mb high at the Canadian/US border.

[Brent]

there is a little snow on the Euro for Super Bowl Sunday especially from DFW west

[Iceresistance]

INSANE 0z GFS run, lots of snow



24-hour Snow Totals



Temperature (Yes, Highs near Zero! )



Vs the 6z GFS model run, it's similar to the Crazy 0z but less cold & slightly less snow.



24-hour snowfall



Temperature (Not as cold as it was on 0z)

[wxman57]

1989 redux?

Not even close to '89 or '83, where Houston had 4-5 consecutive days of highs below 32F, with a high near 20F one day. My shoulder is still hurting too much to reinforce my US/Canada cold air wall.

[Cpv17]

INSANE 0z GFS run, lots of snow

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh192-306.gif

24-hour Snow Totals

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow24_scus_fh186-294.gif

Temperature (Yes, Highs near Zero! )

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_fh132-372.gif

Vs the 6z GFS model run, it's similar to the Crazy 0z but less cold & slightly less snow.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh186-312.gif

24-hour snowfall

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow24_scus_fh180-324.gif

Temperature (Not as cold as it was on 0z)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_fh138-372.gif

We know how this goes. Models will show a strong front in the long range, slowly start to drop it in the middle, and bring it back in the short. Almost every time that’s how it works with these stronger fronts.