Texas Winter 2013-2014

[DonWrk]

Wow storm2k is finally back. It amazes me how a site this big can be down for so long and quite often in the past few weeks!

[gboudx]

I hope a recap of the PWC 1pm press conference is posted. I missed it recovering from a nasty hangover today.

[ravyrn]

STORM2K is finally up. Does anyone know what the latest models are suggesting?

I did a meteogram for Jacksonville TX w/ the 18Z GFS. It has us at average temps and then slighting above average temps midweek through next Sunday until the front comes through. After the front comes through, the long range GFS has my location at slightly below average to average heading into the New Year. It would seem Wxman57 has escaped Elba.

[gpsnowman]

Just watched CBS 11 forecast and they are predicting a chance of ice/sleet next weekend. Temps not very cold at all. Boy, I have got to stop getting myself worked up with model projections 10 days out. When will I ever learn!!!!! Weather and Cowboys. Can it get any worse?

[Kludge]

Wow storm2k is finally back. It amazes me how a site this big can be down for so long and quite often in the past few weeks!

Yeah... keeping a great site like this online takes a bunch of $$$. I should probably contribute.

Oh wait...

[DonWrk]

Wow storm2k is finally back. It amazes me how a site this big can be down for so long and quite often in the past few weeks!

Yeah... keeping a great site like this online takes a bunch of $$$. I should probably contribute.

Oh wait...

A bunch of money? I've ran a site that got 30k hits daily for less than 50 bucks a month. Not sure on the the daily hits for this site. Heck, you can run a good VPS plan for less than $100 so I don't believe the problem is money.

[TheProfessor]

Just watched CBS 11 forecast and they are predicting a chance of ice/sleet next weekend. Temps not very cold at all. Boy, I have got to stop getting myself worked up with model projections 10 days out. When will I ever learn!!!!! Weather and Cowboys. Can it get any worse?

I know exactly how you feel right now.

[ravyrn]

Just watched CBS 11 forecast and they are predicting a chance of ice/sleet next weekend. Temps not very cold at all. Boy, I have got to stop getting myself worked up with model projections 10 days out. When will I ever learn!!!!! Weather and Cowboys. Can it get any worse?

Steve McCauley posted around 8am this morning his stat method was down to 5% for ice for the metroplex. As it's still more than a few days out, the chance is there, but it seems unlikely at this point.

[srainhoutx]

Wow storm2k is finally back. It amazes me how a site this big can be down for so long and quite often in the past few weeks!

Yeah... keeping a great site like this online takes a bunch of $$$. I should probably contribute.

Oh wait...

A bunch of money? I've ran a site that got 30k hits daily for less than 50 bucks a month. Not sure on the the daily hits for this site. Heck, you can run a good VPS plan for less than $100 so I don't believe the problem is money.

Try a million to 2 million hits per day and even greater when you have world wide exposure or a media site and major events. The problem is not isolated. The internet has become a place where those that want to launch attacks can and do attempt in some very sneaky ways to embed data code that creates major headaches. If banks and other secure sites can be hacked, it certainly should be expected that other venues across the web are experiencing the same problem. Large organizations/commercial sites are having to spend major $$$ on a fulltime team of IT folks just to keep sites secure. Unfortunately it is the world we live in. Back to the weather...

[wxman57]

Finally! I've regained control of the weather machine! Time to turn up the heat this week! OK, I have temps approaching 80 in Houston by this weekend. Now I need to work on Christmas week...

[gboudx]

See what happens when you poke the bear(wxman57)? He has powers we cannot comprehend. He did it last winter after Ntxwx wrote his name in sleet/sneaux and now he's done it again.

[Texas Snowman]

Bear schmare. His powers are mythical. I still have decent sized patches of ice/sleet in my yard and neighborhood. This is the 12th day since it fell. Winter hasn't even officially begun. He'll move to the equator before it is all said and done!

[Snowman67]

Finally! I've regained control of the weather machine! Time to turn up the heat this week! OK, I have temps approaching 80 in Houston by this weekend. Now I need to work on Christmas week...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6zdec16.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs6zdec16.gif

Porta - is there any chance that you can get the weather machine back from Heat Miser 57? This may be our only chance With him in possession of it, we may see temps in the 80's this week...

[TheProfessor]

Finally! I've regained control of the weather machine! Time to turn up the heat this week! OK, I have temps approaching 80 in Houston by this weekend. Now I need to work on Christmas week...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6zdec16.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs6zdec16.gif

Porta - is there any chance that you can get the weather machine back from Heat Miser 57? This may be our only chance With him in possession of it, we may see temps in the 80's this week...

We need to give it back to snow miser so he can defeat wxman57 once and for all.

[DonWrk]

We just had some of the largest chunks of ice come off the roof this morning and destroyed the flower bed! Pretty amazing how large these chunks are.

[Stormcenter]

The models are usleless 10 days out and a waste of time. IMO

[dhweather]

The models are usleless 10 days out and a waste of time. IMO

They are fun to watch, but make no mistake, making decisions about life and property based on a model beyond 5 days is a really, really bad idea.

[texas1836]

The models are usleless 10 days out and a waste of time. IMO

They are fun to watch, but make no mistake, making decisions about life and property based on a model beyond 5 days is a really, really bad idea.

The models may not be accurate beyond 10 days, but it at least alerts us to what could possibly be, even if not a historic event.

[dhweather]

The models may not be accurate beyond 10 days, but it at least alerts us to what could possibly be, even if not a historic event.

As long as people remember this, I have no problem with it.


I'd feel really bad if some casual reader stops by, and sees us chatting about an 83/89 arctic blast, and significantly alters their life for a very remote possibility.

Every person in most of Texas north of I-10 should already have insulated water spigot covers. If they have a fireplace, they should have a minimum 4-5 days worth of wood on hand, as well as 4-5 days worth of non-perishable food. A radio, flashlight and batteries should also be in your inventory as well. Go ahead and develop a contingency plan for a long-term event. It's really not much different than being prepared for a hurricane. I just don't require cat 5 rated shutters for all the windows now.

[wxman57]

The long-range models can often identify major weather events 10-15 days in advance. Of course, you need to treat these events as possibilities rather than likely that far out. It was around last Wednesday that the long-range models stopped predicting extreme cold across the deep south. That's not unusual - the models losing the Arctic air in the 8-10 day out time frame. The trouble was that the models began indicating a different upper-air pattern as well by Thursday. That was a red flag that the extreme cold event would not materialize, at least during Christmas week. Typically, the long-range models would keep the upper-air pattern the same but lose the cold air at the surface.

So no snow or extreme cold for Texas near Christmas this year. But don't give up on winter, as it's not even winter yet! I plan to turn control of the weather machine back over to Portastorm after Christmas (at least for a while).