Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro snow maps aren't encouraging for DFW but if you look deeper the potential is about the same for the Northern Burbs of DFW. How fast does the column cool? Lots of precipitation falls when the model has the column very close to supporting snow.

[Brent]

What is it about the DFW area that the snow lines go diagonally from let's say Sherman to Lampasas and stay about 50 miles west? ALL the time. We can get a cold front with storms or dry air to push all the way down to Houston but god forbid us get some winter weather these days. Is it topography or the gulf is just too strong (although it seems very far for that to happen) It's just odd to me that it's like this always.

oh good I'm glad it's not just me

But at least this one is closer than the one a few weeks back I suppose... progress? Eventually one is bound to be in the metro, right?

[Cpv17]

What is it about the DFW area that the snow lines go diagonally from let's say Sherman to Lampasas and stay about 50 miles west? ALL the time. We can get a cold front with storms or dry air to push all the way down to Houston but god forbid us get some winter weather these days. Is it topography or the gulf is just too strong (although it seems very far for that to happen) It's just odd to me that it's like this always.

oh good I'm glad it's not just me

But at least this one is closer than the one a few weeks back I suppose... progress? Eventually one is bound to be in the metro, right?

We just need a stronger push of cold air. It’s cold, just not cold enough.

[BrokenGlass]

Whoa, thunder and heavy rain here now. Temp holding at 36.


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[EnnisTx]

Time to move on to the next possible non snow event for DFW......

I believe the proverbial fat lady is singing.

[Captmorg70]

It looks like even us north and west of DFW are not going to see much of anything

[snowballzzz]

Looks like this will be a wash. I have a feeling that February will be our time.

[CaptinCrunch]

What is it about the DFW area that the snow lines go diagonally from let's say Sherman to Lampasas and stay about 50 miles west? ALL the time. We can get a cold front with storms or dry air to push all the way down to Houston but god forbid us get some winter weather these days. Is it topography or the gulf is just too strong (although it seems very far for that to happen) It's just odd to me that it's like this always.

It's the elevation, DFW metro sits about 500ft above sea level, but go W, SW or N by 50-100 miles and the elevation rises to around 700-800 ft. Simple, the higher you get the cooler the temperature. That's why you always see the freezing line snake around DFW.

So while we have all the ingredients for a winter storm, we just didn't get cold enough at the surface here, miss it by 3-4 degrees.

[DonWrk]

Ugh, 6-8 inches expected north of Ardmore. Soo close.

[wxman57]

HRRR sounding for DFW suggests temps a few degrees above freezing up to about 7000 ft until around 5pm. At that time, the air cools aloft but the precip will be coming to an end. Can't rule out a few snowflakes there as the precip ends, but don't expect to be making snowmen this evening.

[WeatherP1]

What is it about the DFW area that the snow lines go diagonally from let's say Sherman to Lampasas and stay about 50 miles west? ALL the time. We can get a cold front with storms or dry air to push all the way down to Houston but god forbid us get some winter weather these days. Is it topography or the gulf is just too strong (although it seems very far for that to happen) It's just odd to me that it's like this always.

It's the elevation, DFW metro sits about 500ft above sea level, but go W, SW or N by 50-100 miles and the elevation rises to around 700-800 ft. Simple, the higher you get the cooler the temperature. That's why you always see the freezing line snake around DFW.

So while we have all the ingredients for a winter storm, we just didn't get cold enough at the surface here, miss it by 3-4 degrees.

NWS did a graphic about this in early December. Credit NWSFortWorth
"Do you know that the elevation increases as you move west of the DFW Metroplex? Those higher elevations have the greatest potential for snow to accumulate, because surface temperatures cool as you go higher."

[Captmorg70]

Well hopefully the WSW counties in NTX get their snow because it looks like that’s about as far east as it will get. Anyone out towards Bowie?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well hopefully the WSW counties in NTX get their snow because it looks like that’s about as far east as it will get. Anyone out towards Bowie?

Heavy snow in clay county.

[hriverajr]

Looks like 7 to 10 days of mildness upcoming....

[Captmorg70]

Well hopefully the WSW counties in NTX get their snow because it looks like that’s about as far east as it will get. Anyone out towards Bowie?

Heavy snow in clay county.

Congrats! It’s good to see that the ones that were predicted for snow are getting it.

[Ralph's Weather]

It will be interesting to see if enough moisture can wrap around for some snow showers in DFW and NE TX late today. Models don't show it, but it is def possible with the core of the upper low crossing overhead.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well hopefully the WSW counties in NTX get their snow because it looks like that’s about as far east as it will get. Anyone out towards Bowie?

Heavy snow in clay county.

Congrats! It’s good to see that the ones that were predicted for snow are getting it.

I don’t think we will see the 4-6” that they were predicting though.

[Captmorg70]

Heavy snow in clay county.

Congrats! It’s good to see that the ones that were predicted for snow are getting it.

I don’t think we will see the 4-6” that they were predicting though.

Yea atm it looks like everything is moving north and predicted to stay N of the RR. Unless moisture wraps around, it seems like none of the WSW counties in NTX will hit their predicted amounts

[Texas Snow]

It will be interesting to see if enough moisture can wrap around for some snow showers in DFW and NE TX late today. Models don't show it, but it is def possible with the core of the upper low crossing overhead.

12z rgem shows some flakes flying in DFW tonight, not much, but it is there.

[Portastorm]

Everything appears to be looking good for a serious bout of winter coming later this month ... just as wxman57 foretold! Here's a nice read about the split of the polar vortex and what it means in common language:

https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic