Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Canadian is snow in NTX and WTX, icemageddon in CTX.

[Ntxw]

The temp issue is freaking me out!!!

It's worrisome for sure but DFW's biggest snowstorm was about as marginal as it got . High risk, high reward. Get the QPF modeled and we'll watch temps in hi-res mode.

And that cold blast was probably weaker than this one. Was just duration chill.

Is this not one of those scenarios where we account for global models being biased toward slightly overestimating surface temps? If I remember correctly, the icon has developed an unofficial reputation over the last few years of being better at handling surface temps in winter weather setups.

There isn't CAA involved later in the week yet. The phasing helps the upper levels and the vorticity coming out will cool the column as well. This is what happened in 2010. QPF is warm air surging northward. I think our best bet is staying 30-33 with help from upper features. This is that kind of set up like Feb 2010 where we're middle to backend of the cold snap.

[txtwister78]

Disregard...looking at 0z run on CMC. 12z a bit different.

Temps still in the 40's though Wednesday afternoon near Lubbock region while ten degrees colder across SC TX

[wxman22]

The 12z CMC is onboard

[wxman22]

This could be an historical storm if everything aligns right. This system will have more moisture to work with than the Feb 2021 storm but temps will be much warmer.

[txtwister78]

Huge difference with dews between GFS and CMC Thursday afternoon. Evaporative cooling effect in place for the CMC where GFS dews in the low to mid 30's.

[Ntxw]

GFS is actually a little colder than CMC above the surface. It's the weird cold temps the Canadian does early on. Regardless, at this range probably more beneficial to watch what kind of upper level we are getting than at the surface. We'll have better insight once we get under 100 hours on the ground with hi res.

[orangeblood]

The 12z CMC is onboard

https://i.ibb.co/q060GNN/prateptype-imp-us-sc-5.png

https://i.ibb.co/c6Y2gdH/prateptype-imp-us-sc-6.png

CMC a little later than the GFS and Euro, would be a disaster commute for the Cotton Bowl Friday afternoon in Arlington. Would be an enjoyable tv watching experience if Jerry left the roof open

[txtwister78]

GFS is actually a little colder than CMC above the surface. It's the weird cold temps the Canadian does early on. Regardless, at this range probably more beneficial to watch what kind of upper level we are getting than at the surface. We'll have better insight once we get under 100 hours on the ground with hi res.

Oh yeah this is going to upper level wait and see. High Res models going to get a lot of use next week as is typically the case for most of these close call events.

[Ntxw]

The 12z CMC is onboard

https://i.ibb.co/q060GNN/prateptype-imp-us-sc-5.png

https://i.ibb.co/c6Y2gdH/prateptype-imp-us-sc-6.png

CMC a little later than the GFS and Euro, would be a disaster commute for the Cotton Bowl Friday afternoon in Arlington. Would be an enjoyable tv watching experience if Jerry left the roof open

That's right there's Texas vs OSU high profile game! Just like Feb 2010 NBA allstar game, Feb 11 Superbowl...definitely going to happen now .

[orangeblood]

But overall, the first check box appears to have been checked….going to a more phased look as opposed to the cutoff solution. Now onto the 2nd check list item, how cold and where the uplift sets up which will take a few days to iron out.

A very useful map I’ve found over they years in these situations is the 925 mb temp forecast map, typically more useful for surface temps during heavy QPF events

[orangeblood]

The 12z CMC is onboard

https://i.ibb.co/q060GNN/prateptype-imp-us-sc-5.png

https://i.ibb.co/c6Y2gdH/prateptype-imp-us-sc-6.png

CMC a little later than the GFS and Euro, would be a disaster commute for the Cotton Bowl Friday afternoon in Arlington. Would be an enjoyable tv watching experience if Jerry left the roof open

That's right there's Texas vs OSU high profile game! Just like Feb 2010 NBA allstar game, Feb 11 Superbowl...definitely going to happen now .

Mother Nature definitely has a sense of humor!! I may need to camp out in the parking lot to make sure I can attend the game

[Quixotic]

It's worrisome for sure but DFW's biggest snowstorm was about as marginal as it got . High risk, high reward. Get the QPF modeled and we'll watch temps in hi-res mode.

And that cold blast was probably weaker than this one. Was just duration chill.

Is this not one of those scenarios where we account for global models being biased toward slightly overestimating surface temps? If I remember correctly, the icon has developed an unofficial reputation over the last few years of being better at handling surface temps in winter weather setups.

There isn't CAA involved later in the week yet. The phasing helps the upper levels and the vorticity coming out will cool the column as well. This is what happened in 2010. QPF is warm air surging northward. I think our best bet is staying 30-33 with help from upper features. This is that kind of set up like Feb 2010 where we're middle to backend of the cold snap.

Dynamic cooling from the ULL maybe help us out?

[Ntxw]

But overall, the first check box appears to have been checked….going to a more phased look as opposed to the cutoff solution. Now onto the 2nd check list item, how cold and where the uplift sets up which will take a few days to iron out.

A very useful map I’ve found over they years in these situations is the 925 mb temp forecast map, typically more useful for surface temps during heavy QPF events

I can't wait to see hi-res convection maps. Orientation of ejecting vorticity from SW to NE can go wild sometimes. Divergence of the jet. Hence why nor'easters are so fun.

[txtwister78]

GEFS went steroid on snow on this 12z run.

[Throckmorton]

ICON's scary forecast for Austin:

33–30...Wednesday (very light snow changing to freezing rain; 0.32 inches of ice)

31–29....Thursday (freezing rain changing to snow; 0.28 inches of new ice; 5.8 inches of new snow)

That's an ice storm plus a snow storm. The ice accumulations would be very close to February 2023 levels.

EWX will get to issue ice storm warnings for the first time after deciding earlier this year to begin using them instead of broad–brush winter storm warnings.

[Brent]

Starting to snow in Kansas City. Hardly any traffic

[Ntxw]

Starting to snow in Kansas City. Hardly any traffic

Weekend snows are the best! Have a good and safe time up there. Please send us pictures, we love snow !

[utpmg]

ICON's scary forecast for Austin:

33–30...Wednesday (very light snow changing to freezing rain; 0.32 inches of ice)

31–29....Thursday (freezing rain changing to snow; 0.28 inches of new ice; 5.8 inches of new snow)

That's an ice storm plus a snow storm. The ice accumulations would be very close to February 2023 levels.

EWX will get to issue ice storm warnings for the first time after deciding earlier this year to begin using them instead of broad–brush winter storm warnings.

Well, there ain't much left of my huge American Elms to come down after 2023, but I guess we'll see.

[Brent]

Starting to snow in Kansas City. Hardly any traffic

Weekend snows are the best! Have a good and safe time up there. Please send us pictures, we love snow !

I will but I really don't expect any impressive snow til tomorrow tbh. it's gonna be a show. If we start adding up today yeah we might get really buried I think it's gonna shift more towards ice for a bit