Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Do you guys think that the Winter Storm is strengthening? Or getting weaker?

Well the amount of precip on the 18z runs for North Texas is less impressive than the 06z and 12z runs, but not by much. I think it's sort of in limbo right now. Not sure if it'll be stronger, or not.

[Ntxw]

Note to mention, 18z gfs has more moisture for the possible New Year's eve event

[txtiff]

Can anyone tell me if I should expect snow in my area?? I live just east of the metroplex in Kaufman.

[Ntxw]

Can anyone tell me if I should expect snow in my area?? I live just east of the metroplex in Kaufman.

As of right now, precipitation will be light. Models show some snow for you possibly with a mix of sleet and maybe rain at times. Nothing is in stone as swings in temperature either which way would make a difference. Accumulations stated by the nws are on the light side currently.

[txtiff]

What about the new years eve storm?? How is that looking?

[Ntxw]

What about the new years eve storm?? How is that looking?

Models haven't been consistent on that, gfs has flurries for now.

[txtiff]

What about the new years eve storm?? How is that looking?

Models haven't been consistent on that, gfs has flurries for now.

Great NO snow again. Some how we ALWAYS miss out.

[txtiff]

This is what we need!!!
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/video ... 9234482001

[Ntxw]

Winter storm watches are up for far west Texas and southern New Mexico

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


not trying to over alarm anybody or get anyone to excited BUT that said this system looks stronger to me on sat imagery
then what the models are showing 48-72+ hours out... this needs to be watched closely... iam NOT saying another repeat
iam saying i see more then a 'couple' inches in some areas in the path of this storm system. NOT blizzard like conditions w/
winds as high as they were before but i would not be shocked to see say 5,6 maybe even 7 or 8 inches out of this system.

it could even crank up even more then that but at this time i would say tops up to 8 inches..

the area of MOST concern would be just w of dallas-fortworth metroplex up to the redriver region.
with possibly the heavy area along and west of highway 281 say from jacksboro to mineral wells
down toward stephenville area and along both sides of interstate 20 north, south.

further east into the metroplex i would still favor a good 2-3 maybe 4 inches.

this is all still subject to change @ anytime so please stay tuned... i will try and post more thoughts
after the 00z data is out.

[gboudx]

Great NO snow again. Some how we ALWAYS miss out.

I feel your pain. Live in Rockwall. We tend to get jipped on the higher accumulations as well. I had about 1/2" from the Christmas Eve event.

[Ntxw]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


not trying to over alarm anybody or get anyone to excited BUT that said this system looks stronger to me on sat imagery
then what the models are showing 48-72+ hours out... this needs to be watched closely... iam NOT saying another repeat
iam saying i see more then a 'couple' inches in some areas in the path of this storm system. NOT blizzard like conditions w/
winds as high as they were before but i would not be shocked to see say 5,6 maybe even 7 or 8 inches out of this system.

it could even crank up even more then that but at this time i would say tops up to 8 inches..

the area of MOST concern would be just w of dallas-fortworth metroplex up to the redriver region.
with possibly the heavy area along and west of highway 281 say from jacksboro to mineral wells
down toward stephenville area and along both sides of interstate 20 north, south.

further east into the metroplex i would still favor a good 2-3 maybe 4 inches.

this is all still subject to change @ anytime so please stay tuned... i will try and post more thoughts
after the 00z data is out.

I do agree with you for the most part. Also the following system needs to be watched as well. The short wave around new year's looks to be quite potent in upper flow. I have a feeling the models are underplaying this sytem at this time.

[HockeyTx82]

Is that pipe busting cold still looking to head south? I realize it's still a ways out but just curious what the latest model runs shows.


GO COWBOYS!!!!!!!

[msstateguy83]

quick look over nam run 00z shows even lighter precip from just what i have seen so far... details to come..

[iorange55]

quick look over nam run 00z shows even lighter precip from just what i have seen so far... details to come..

Shows more than the 18z for the Dallas area. Still looking good.

[Ntxw]

Goes back and forth on amounts sigh...

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
827 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2009

.UPDATE...
WE/VE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING.

SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY...WE/VE REMOVED SLEET (IP) FROM THE
FORECAST AS MODEL SOUNDING ARE SUB-FREEZING ALL THE WAY UP
NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE DURING THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE IS NO WARM NOSE AVAILABLE FOR MELTING SNOW THAT COULD
RE-FREEZE INTO SLEET. CURRENTLY...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...1 TO 3
INCHES...WILL BE WEST OF A JACKSBORO...GRANBURY...LAMPASAS LINE.
UP TO 1 INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE METROPLEX...EVEN THOUGH AIR
TEMPS WILL BE 33-37 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAIN
BODY ARRIVES.

AS FOR THURSDAYS SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW PRODUCTION ALONG
THE RED RIVER. HAVE CHANGED FLURRIES TO LIGHT RAIN WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES.

LOWS IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN UP AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED
UP. 75

[iorange55]

Goes back and forth on amounts sigh...

It's not showing anything lighter than what its been showing since the 12z model? So i'm not sure what i'm missing?

[Ntxw]

You're right, but i was comparing it to runs prior to just todays.

[Weatherdude20]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2009

WINTER WEATHER TO RETURN TO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...

A POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH
OF A LAMPASAS...WACO...ATHENS LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN OR POSSIBLY A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN CONCERNING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR UPDATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTED AREAS.