Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

Yikes. Woke up and 37 IMBY. We can call it...time of death....2015.

[losf1981]

Snow coming down in Wichita Falls!

[gto67]

Everything appears to be looking good for a serious bout of winter coming later this month ... just as wxman57 foretold! Here's a nice read about the split of the polar vortex and what it means in common language:

https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic

Joe Bastardi has a good graphic of the above link on today's daily update on Weatherbell. Thanks Portastorm and everyone else for the info, it helps me understand what is being discussed.

[Ralph's Weather]

It will be interesting to see if enough moisture can wrap around for some snow showers in DFW and NE TX late today. Models don't show it, but it is def possible with the core of the upper low crossing overhead.

12z rgem shows some flakes flying in DFW tonight, not much, but it is there.

I do think that most of the I-20 corridor sees at least some flakes today/tonight under the upper low core though key accumulations will be unlikely with temps in the upper 30s. If precip is heavier than modeled then it could pull temps down into the mid 30s and allow for brief accumulations esp after dark tonight.

[Brent]

all this rain such a waste

oh well at least we're carrying over the 2018 wet pattern I suppose

[Yukon Cornelius]

[Lagreeneyes03]

It will be interesting to see if enough moisture can wrap around for some snow showers in DFW and NE TX late today. Models don't show it, but it is def possible with the core of the upper low crossing overhead.

12z rgem shows some flakes flying in DFW tonight, not much, but it is there.

I do think that most of the I-20 corridor sees at least some flakes today/tonight under the upper low core though key accumulations will be unlikely with temps in the upper 30s. If precip is heavier than modeled then it could pull temps down into the mid 30s and allow for brief accumulations esp after dark tonight.

Looks like a lot of us south of the RR are about to get dry slotted though.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z rgem shows some flakes flying in DFW tonight, not much, but it is there.

I do think that most of the I-20 corridor sees at least some flakes today/tonight under the upper low core though key accumulations will be unlikely with temps in the upper 30s. If precip is heavier than modeled then it could pull temps down into the mid 30s and allow for brief accumulations esp after dark tonight.

Looks like a lot of us south of the RR are about to get dry slotted though.

True for now but as the low moves east it looks to wrap around just enough moisture for additional showers to form this afternoon and evening per some models. NWS keeps a mention of rain and snow showers for me tonight so they think it is possible also.

[Cerlin]

I guess it was foolish to think the temps would bust for second day. Disappointed but hopeful we’ll have more chances soon because I’m very snow starved!

[Ralph's Weather]

I guess it was foolish to think the temps would bust for second day. Disappointed but hopeful we’ll have more chances soon because I’m very snow starved!

They are a bit lower than modeled esp up north. Surprisingly the RGEM is on the warm side of guidance now.

[Brent]

the dry slot is a bigger concern to me tbh

the WSW up in Graham and Jacksboro was cancelled

[Ralph's Weather]

the dry slot is a bigger concern to me tbh

the WSW up in Graham and Jacksboro was cancelled

Agreed often models underestimate the dry slot. I just hope that as it moves east of I-35 it can wrap some Gulf moisture all the way into the core of the low though that is often a losing bet. Just want to see round 2 of flurries. The real stuff will come mid month and on.

[Brent]

the dry slot is a bigger concern to me tbh

the WSW up in Graham and Jacksboro was cancelled

Agreed often models underestimate the dry slot. I just hope that as it moves east of I-35 it can wrap some Gulf moisture all the way into the core of the low though that is often a losing bet. Just want to see round 2 of flurries. The real stuff will come mid month and on.

The precip is moving out way earlier than expected unless there's gonna be redevelopment

[Ralph's Weather]

the dry slot is a bigger concern to me tbh

the WSW up in Graham and Jacksboro was cancelled

Agreed often models underestimate the dry slot. I just hope that as it moves east of I-35 it can wrap some Gulf moisture all the way into the core of the low though that is often a losing bet. Just want to see round 2 of flurries. The real stuff will come mid month and on.

The precip is moving out way earlier than expected unless there's gonna be redevelopment

Models seem to have an OK handle on the precip and do show very light redevelopment, again grasping for anything haha.

[funster]

It is another cold rainy day. Be careful out there. Don't go around barefoot outdoors in Dallas today. The cement sidewalks are all cold and wet. Wet Pavement Warning.

[bubba hotep]

the dry slot is a bigger concern to me tbh

the WSW up in Graham and Jacksboro was cancelled

Agreed often models underestimate the dry slot. I just hope that as it moves east of I-35 it can wrap some Gulf moisture all the way into the core of the low though that is often a losing bet. Just want to see round 2 of flurries. The real stuff will come mid month and on.

The precip is moving out way earlier than expected unless there's gonna be redevelopment

It looks like this is it for DFW. On to the next almost winter storm...

[bubba hotep]

I've been pretty impressed with the GEFS over the last couple of months. It does fumble the MJO at times but usually within a range of know bias, so you can work around that. The 12z run today looks really good in the long range. I'll take my chances with this look anytime!

Below Images are 5-Day Avg, I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend even colder but we don't need big anomalies in January.

[orangeblood]

I've been pretty impressed with the GEFS over the last couple of months. It does fumble the MJO at times but usually within a range of know bias, so you can work around that. The 12z run today looks really good in the long range. I'll take my chances with this look anytime!

Below Images are 5-Day Avg, I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend even colder but we don't need big anomalies in January.

Agreed, that is a great look for the southern plains but I hesitate to buy in until the EPS comes around....its still insistent on the Pacific jet slamming into the Northwest US. Have to get rid of that +EPO, the models continue to push the transition to negative back daily

[South Texas Storms]

I agree...that time period certainly looks increasing. Would be the start of our potential 1 month of prime time for wintry weather prospects across much of the state. Bring it on!

[Cpv17]

The middle of January is still looking plausible as of right now. The models have it trending colder by next weekend with lots of low pressures moving through.