Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[jinftl]

Doesn't seem like there is any precip risk after the front passes....i wonder if it is because it is going to make such a clean sweep, that it will clear the deep south out of moisture and bring sunny but quite cold temps. Maybe a front needs to get 'hung up'...not too far south, and then low pressure can ride along that to get a scenario of gulf coast snow.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Starting to get stronger wording out of the NWS offices. Baton Rouge is now forecast to reach 21 Thursday night which means we have an outside shot at reaching the low 20's here in Lafayette. Mid 20's now seems almost certain for my area so get ready for the hard freeze! Coldest airmass since December 2006, ok, I'm starting to become impressed .

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CST MON JAN 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIRMASSES DROPPING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND CANADA WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS THE FIRST SURGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND BECOMING RE-ENFORCED BY
A MUCH STRONGER SURGE THURSDAY. THESE WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER SEASON THUSFAR AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER
2006...BASED ON A QUICK REVIEW OF RECENT PAST COLD EVENTS. A
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WELL AWAY FROM
COASTAL AND TIDAL LAKES BUT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING VERY COLD THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE TRYING TO HEIGHTEN THIS
EVENT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE COLD SPELL THROUGH
SATURDAY [b]THOUGH THINGS COULD GET MARGINALLY INTERESTING SUNDAY. 24

[/b]


Hey PT have any idea about what they are talking about in the last bit of discussion. Have not heard or seen anything that suggest anything interesting happening by Sunday.

[AL Chili Pepper]

The Mobile Weather Service is forecasting lows of 32 on Saturday night in it's northern forecast area with a 40% chance of rain. No mention of anything frozen in the discussion. With a south wind it'd probably be in the form of freezing rain, something I don't care to see.

[fwbbreeze]

woooooah, check this forecast for Crestview, FL for Friday night. That is cold anywhere in the US but espically so in Florida. Luckily down on the coast in Fort Walton/Destin it is only calling for the low 20's.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6.5748&e=0

Today: Sunny, with a high near 56. North wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 50. Wind chill values between 15 and 25 early. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 16. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 46. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. North wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

M.L.King Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

[Brent]

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and snow showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

[Brent]

From James Spann:

SUNDAY: A rather strong impulse rolling through the base of the long wave trough will bring some clouds, and a chance of a little light rain or light snow. The low level thickness values support mostly snow flakes north of I-20, with a mix to the south. Moisture will be very limited, and it still doesn’t look like a big event at this point.

We note, however, that the GFS is bringing in deeper moisture with this feature east of Alabama, and there seems to be some chance of a light snow accumulation over parts of Georgia and South Carolina if the 12Z run is correct. We will keep an eye on this.

[JonathanBelles]

I actually get to post something in here for once from the NWS TBW:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR WILL AGAIN SPILL DOWN THE PENINSULA ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT -7C
OVER LEVY COUNTY TO -4C NEAR TAMPA. AT THAT SAME TIME...COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A RAW EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT COLD RAIN OR SPRINKLES INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CURRENT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW
FLURRIES...BUT IF WE TREND A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER IT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TO SEE A FLURRY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. AGAIN...WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY OF THE WHITE STUFF...BUT THIS PATTERN HAS
YIELDED A FEW FLAKES IN THE PAST.

[Brent]

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS IS
INDICATING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LITHE SNOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM
ARE LESS WINTRY...BUT STILL COLD. LIKE ALWAYS...MOISTURE AND SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARE THE MAJOR ISSUES. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK QUESTIONABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AT ALL LEVELS FOR SNOW. THE GFS HAS A MUCH DEEPER
SATURATED COLUMN BY TUESDAY MORNING...NEARLY 15 THOUSAND FEET DEEP
...WHILE THE NAM IS AROUND HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LESS
THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH FLURRIES FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ANNISTON TO MILLPORT. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN IN THE 20S ANY
SNOW SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM STICKING...BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD CURTAIL TOTALS.

[RevDodd]

Very interesting forcast developing for tonight over the Carolinas...

Out of Raleigh:
Tonight: A chance of rain and snow before 11pm, then snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow, mainly before noon. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

So a chance of up to 6 inches across the central state? Dang!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Snow looks to reach all the way to the NC coast with this event, with the NWS currently calling for 1-2" in Wilmington. Impressive.

[CajunMama]

If y'all get the snow, enjoy it! And i don't have to remind you to take pictures and post them do i?

[Weatherfreak14]

They are expecting 1-2inches of snow as far south here in Beaufort, SC

[Lowpressure]

Will keep updates coming this evening through tomorrow from Charlotte.

[RevDodd]

Heck, I'll probably be asleep before it gets to Faynam...but I'll give y'all an update as we go.

[grentz7721]

Snow expected for the Myrtle Beach area Tuesday along with tempeartures into be in the 20s. Northeast South Carolina will be in a Winter
Weather advisory from 4AM to 10PM this Tuesday.

[lurkey]

If y'all get the snow, enjoy it! And i don't have to remind you to take pictures and post them do i?

If I don't decide to sleep in, I'll bring ya pictures and video. . .

[southerngale]

I hope you guys get your snow!

[vbhoutex]

If y'all get the snow, enjoy it! And i don't have to remind you to take pictures and post them do i?

If I don't decide to sleep in, I'll bring ya pictures and video. . .

If there is a weather event happening no sleeping in allowed!!! Get busy taking vido and pictures!!!

[Lowpressure]

Currently almost 2" on the ground, still snowing with some banding in the area. Temp 28.6F.

[Cookiely]

Possibility of snow flurries or snow pellets in Tampa.