Texas Winter 2014-2015

[CentralTxAggie]

Bedtime temp 35 and dewpoint 27...we'll see what chill awaits me at 0600.

[Brent]

GFS looks interesting for Saturday now:

[Shoshana]

Bedtime temp 35 and dewpoint 27...we'll see what chill awaits me at 0600.

It's 32 w dewpoint of 23 here now in N Austin

[DougNTexas]

22 right now with a DP of 20.

[Brent]

From FWD:

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTERESTING BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES ACROSS BAJA AND INTO WEST TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER ENERGY BUT ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE DRY SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
NOW. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHERE THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST FORCING
COMING RIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. IT ALSO GENERATES SOME HEALTHY
QPF ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRIMARILY SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME SNOW. THERE
IS A +2C WARM NOSE DURING THIS TIME WHICH WOULD LIKELY MEAN SLEET.

GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE...AM A LITTLE HESITANT TO JUMP ON BOARD WITH A WINTRY
PRECIP SOLUTION AT THIS TIME FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE GFS ALSO
APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK IN SATURATING THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. ANY
DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER FORCING BEYOND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A
COLD RAIN INSTEAD. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW AND
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING A COLD RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NEEDLESS
TO SAY THIS DOES BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY.

[srainhoutx]

Freezing temperatures have been reached across much of the Region along and N of the HWY 59 Corridor except in the urban and Coastal Counties where mid to upper 30's have been achieved. The strong Arctic front is scheduled to arrive Wednesday with very gusty winds and even colder temperatures than we are experiencing this morning. We may need winds chill advisories and a Hard Freeze Warning for much of our Region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Here is a snippet from NWS Houston/Galveston this morning explaining just how cold this Arctic High truly is...

THIS MAY BE THE
STRONGEST HIGH PRESSURE THIS EARLY IN JANUARY IN MORE THAN 30
YEARS. PMDHMD HAD AN INTERESTING SECTION ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH
PRESSURE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO A COLD BREEZY DAY. BE
SURE TO HAVE GOOD COAT HANDY. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD
AND THEN TURNS EAST BUT 1036-43MB HIGH SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH SPELLS COLD. WITH THE HIGH STILL TO THE NORTH SETX
MAY STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MANY OF THE MODELS
SHOW MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
BAJA SPREADING INTO TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THESE MAY HELP TO
LIMIT THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 20S DOWN TO AROUND 20
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (ROUGHLY NORTH OF COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO
LIBERTY LINE) AND MID 20S TO UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THERE INCLUDING
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA...GALVESTON ISLAND IS PROBABLY GOING TO
REACH 31-33 DEGREES WITH WIND. HARD FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE
NORTH WITH THE 20-25 DEGREE TEMPS LASTING IN EXCESS OF 2 HOURS AND
PROBABLY MORE LIKE 6-10 HOURS AND BELOW FREEZING LONGER. TIME FOR
THE WISDOM/EXPERIENCE COMMENT - IF THE HIGH MOVES FASTER RELAXING
THE SURFACE WINDS AND THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS DON`T MATERIALIZE THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM BY AS MUCH AS 3-5 DEGREES.


Things may get a bit interesting Friday into early Saturday as the upper low nears West Texas. The GFS is rather aggressive generating QPF as well as developing a Coastal wave near Brownsville/Corpus Christi. Temperatures are borderline even into areas along and N of HWY 105 in SE Texas suggesting freezing rain or sleet may be possible. If the GFS is correct, portions of Central and N/NE Texas into Louisiana way have some p-type issues. It is way too soon to know with any certainty more than 72 hours out and the surface levels should be very dry, but it is worth monitoring in case any wintry mischief issues become a possibility later this week.

[orangeblood]

Interesting battle/test case shaping up later this week between King Euro and the "new and improved" Parallel GFS....PGFS has a wintry mess for Central and North Texas Friday/Saturday while the European has just trace amounts of wintry precip during same time period. Difference appears to be the way the two models handle the dry lower levels - there almost no doubt there will be a lot of mid level moisture present with this subtropical feature moving in but will it be enough to overcome the extremely dry lower levels ??? Something to keep an eye on to see how well this new model stacks up against the King!

[Kelarie]

It is a balmy 23 with a DP of 18.

From NWS Shreveport for this upcoming week....

...WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT MAY BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...BEFORE A SECONDARY AREA OF ARCTIC SFC RIDGING BUILDS S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THUS DEEPENING THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS AND ALLOWING IT TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS AND SEEP S INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT...MAX TEMPS SHOULD NEAR/SLIGHTLY EXCEED NORMALS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTLY DUE TO WEAK COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH THAT MAY LAY UP IN VC OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR. AFTERWARDS...THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THIS NEW WORK WEEK.

MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SE INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION INTO CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODIFY BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS ELEVATED MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE W. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY SPINNING W OF SRN BAJA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT N PARALLEL TO THE BAJA COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIFTING E INTO NW OLD MX EARLY FRIDAY AND OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO W TX EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR BUILDING S INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A MODIFYING CANADIAN SFC RIDGE FRIDAY...WHICH MAY HELP DEEPEN THE
NEAR SFC COLD AIR ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT OVER E TX NEAR/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER N AND E INTO SE OK/SW AR/N LA. ATTM...WEAK OVERRUNNING SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY...THUS CHANGING ANY PRECIP BACK
TO LIQUID. THE GFS IS THE LONE OUTLIER THOUGH WITH MAINTAINING WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COLDER SFC TEMPS AND THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FZRA AS OVERRUNNING INCREASES
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE W. SINCE THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE...HAVE MAINTAINED LIQUID PRECIP TYPES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT COULD SEE THIS CHANGE BACK OVER TO FZRA SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR. ATTM...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB BACK
ABOVE FREEZING OVER THESE AREAS BY SUNDAY...THUS CHANGING PRECIP TYPES BACK OVER TO LIQUID.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FREEZING LINE/RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE NEXT WEEKEND WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TIME THIS WEEK. INTERESTS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION SHOULD KEEP ABREAST TO THESE CHANGES...AS CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.

[Portastorm]

Interesting battle/test case shaping up later this week between King Euro and the "new and improved" Parallel GFS....PGFS has a wintry mess for Central and North Texas Friday/Saturday while the European has just trace amounts of wintry precip during same time period. Difference appears to be the way the two models handle the dry lower levels - there almost no doubt there will be a lot of mid level moisture present with this subtropical feature moving in but will it be enough to overcome the extremely dry lower levels ??? Something to keep an eye on to see how well this new model stacks up against the King!

Yeah, as srainhoutx alluded to earlier, the GFS is more progressive and more bullish on QPF than King Euro. As srainhoutx pointed out to me this morning, the Euro hasn't done all that well lately in Texas. Even though its general numbers continue it in the top spot for North America, it has struggled some down here. We shall see.

[dhweather]

FORT WORTH
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THIS SYSTEM 6-12 HOURS...WITH IT CROSSING TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST
BECAUSE OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED AWAY FROM A WINTER MIX AND
MORE TOWARD COLD RAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF STILL DID SHOW A POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SLEET OR SPRINKLES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE MODEL IS
SUGGESTING NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS. THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MOISTENED UP BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ALOFT COULD REACH THE GROUND. THIS MOISTENING
PROCESS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME...AND BY THE TIME IT OCCURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND BROUGHT IN WARMER AIR. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THIS VERY
DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...I WOULD HAVE INSERTED A MIX OF
WINTER PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE OTHER OPTION
TO GET THE LOW LEVELS MOISTENED UP IS TO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE. THE CANADIAN SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN
HAS THIS WINTER EVENT BECAUSE IT HAS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATING
THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WHICH CAUSES 850MB WINDS OVER
TEXAS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. I CANT FIND THIS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN ANY OF THE OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS TREATED AS A
LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIER. NONETHELESS WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLOSE INTEREST...AND KEEP JUST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

And there is Weird Al, the ONLY model advertising a shortwave. I do not know what the verification rate is for the CMC in Canada, however it seems to get worse the further south you go. Surprised it doesn't have a cat 5 in the gulf by this weekend.

[Ntxw]

The Euro hasn't been great lately for us. From last week it pushed most of this cold through the Lakes and off the coast while PGFS had a big high behind our first. But the PGFS has overdone things at times too.

[orangeblood]

The Euro hasn't been great lately for us. From last week it pushed most of this cold through the Lakes and off the coast while PGFS had a big high behind our first. But the PGFS has overdone things at times too.

I think the PGFS is onto something this time around, seems to handle the subtropics a little better for some reason...this has all the ingredients for a MAJOR winter storm in our next of the woods, IMO!!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is suggesting a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Friday and breaks out some sleet and snow across the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex into Shreveport as the front continues heading S. The upper air disturbance begins to near W Texas from Northern Mexico Friday afternoon/evening as a Coastal wave develops along the Lower Texas Coast. Frozen precip breaks out across the Hill Country into the Austin area and N and E and even suggesting there may be some potential for an icy mix into the Beaumont/Lake Charles area on Saturday.

[wxman22]

12z gfs looks very interesting and has temps just a few degrees above freezing (2 meter temps get as low as 33F degrees at IAH) with plenty of precip to the I-10 corridor and the PARA GFS basically shows frozen precipitation almost to the I-10 corridor fwiw

[Portastorm]

12z gfs looks very interesting and has temps just a few degrees above freezing (2 meter temps get as low as 33F degrees at IAH) with plenty of precip to the I-10 corridor and the PARA GFS basically shows frozen precipitation almost to the I-10 corridor fwiw

Yeah, it's a bit colder for much of us per its 6z and 0z runs but remains aggressive about precipitation. Interesting indeed!

[orangeblood]

12z gfs looks very interesting and has temps just a few degrees above freezing (2 meter temps get as low as 33F degrees at IAH) with plenty of precip to the I-10 corridor and the PARA GFS basically shows frozen precipitation almost to the I-10 corridor fwiw

Yeah, it's a bit colder for much of us per its 6z and 0z runs but remains aggressive about precipitation. Interesting indeed!

What's ironic about this storm is that the culprit is the piece of energy that was left behind during the last storm that caused the mess in West Texas but missed those in North and Central Texas. It's been spinning off the coast off Baja for the last few days and could end up delivering to those who got left out last week, Mother Nature really does have a sense of humor sometimes!!

REALLY active period coming up over the next 10-14 days!!!

[BigB0882]

The 2nd shot of cold air must not make it to SELA, kind of like the last bout. We will be cold here this week but our high on Saturday is forecast to be 51 whereas it is only getting to 43 in Beaumont. That's a pretty big difference, our temps are usually very similar. I guess it is still below normal temps but unless something changes I can't see us having any hope of a winter weather surprise. Those temps would have to trend way down.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS doesn't want me cycling on Saturday. That's OK, as I have a wedding to attend.

[wxman57]

The 2nd shot of cold air must not make it to SELA, kind of like the last bout. We will be cold here this week but our high on Saturday is forecast to be 51 whereas it is only getting to 43 in Beaumont. That's a pretty big difference, our temps are usually very similar. I guess it is still below normal temps but unless something changes I can't see us having any hope of a winter weather surprise. Those temps would have to trend way down.

I made meteograms for both Baton Rouge & Beaumont from the 12Z GFS:

[Tireman4]

The 12Z GFS doesn't want me cycling on Saturday. That's OK, as I have a wedding to attend.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zjan5.gif

Gee sir, chin up. At least it is free food...