Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif

It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.

Sounds like my assumption is aging well?

[bubba hotep]

This isn't getting anyone hyped lol

https://i.ibb.co/vYfr8Gg/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-fh168-384.gif

GEFS and Euro EPS are in pretty good agreement that things won't get as bad as the models were showing last week. In fact, the pattern flips back pretty quickly and I wouldn't be surprised to see some winter wx threats showing up beyond the 7 - 10 day range.

https://i.ibb.co/YW9WzCq/12421gfs-ens-z500a-Norm-Mean-namer-fh168-384.gif

Ensembles are starting to sniff out some potential between Feb 5 - 7.

00z Euro EPS looked pretty good for portions of N. Texas for the window I've been tracking. Not terribly interested in dry cold, so come on snow!

[Cpv17]

From single digits predicted by the GFS in D-FW by the 8th, the overnight runs went mid to upper 20s for 00Z and low 40s at 12Z Monday for 06Z. Trend is for the cold air to push more east. Even though my shoulder still hurts, I was able to reinforce my Canadian wall a little last week. I added a diverter to shunt the colder air eastward.

That’s boring. No thanks.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS looks like a glancing blow, which is fine with me. Snow or SUMMER

[rwfromkansas]

Seems like 9 times out of 10 the cold hits east so no surprise.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS looks like a glancing blow, which is fine with me. Snow or SUMMER

12Z Canadian says not so fast...has DFW at 82 hrs below freezing beginning next Saturday with a Major Winter Storm early next week!

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS looks like a glancing blow, which is fine with me. Snow or SUMMER

12Z Canadian says not so fast...has DFW at 82 hrs below freezing beginning next Saturday with a Major Winter Storm early next week!

I mean even the CMC has most of the cold well northeast of Texas.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS looks like a glancing blow, which is fine with me. Snow or SUMMER

12Z Canadian says not so fast...has DFW at 82 hrs below freezing beginning next Saturday with a Major Winter Storm early next week!

I mean even the CMC has most of the cold well northeast of Texas.

Most of the cold? It’s a widespread US Arctic outbreak on the CMC

[txtwister78]

One thing to note is the GFS pops the EPO back into positive for a few days early next week where the other models keep it negative. Obvious contradiction. Too early for me to put my trust in the CMC despite a great pattern.

[aggiecutter]

[Cpv17]

12Z Canadian says not so fast...has DFW at 82 hrs below freezing beginning next Saturday with a Major Winter Storm early next week!

I mean even the CMC has most of the cold well northeast of Texas.

Most of the cold? It’s a widespread US Arctic outbreak on the CMC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021013112/gem_T2ma_us_38.png

Sorry, I was referring to the 850mb level anomalies.

[txtwister78]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/m6M4MFH/Et-Cr-lx-XMAEk-NDW.png [/url]

Yup posted earlier. Let's see if the 12z run holds it

[Cpv17]

The Euro is now further east too compared to 0z.

[Ntxw]

The Euro's upper flow actually looks much more like the Canadian than the GFS which is very progressive. Also don't forget we are talking about two parts here. The upper flow of cold will almost always go east towards the Great Lakes but the HP dense shallow air has an easier time down the Rockies. Just the reality of flow over North America west to east. We're never going to get the coldest part of any air mass compared to the Great Lakes and Northeast. There's a lot of blocking in the AO/NAO domain as a result. It's like 1985 where to the east is where wicked cold temps were but the foot+ of snow was San Antonio. Not saying that here but just an example of the 2 part play. You're going to drive yourself crazy with the back and forth of cold in an Arctic outbreak, potentially shallow air mass at the onset.

As far as the Euro, it's hanging back the baja low much like the Canadian. It's going to get cold everywhere, just the variability of upper features is swinging wildly.

Edit: If you were a fan of some cold and then a good snow storm you would definitely want the baja low feature to slow down and hang out a bit until after the cold is in place and overrun later.

[wxman22]

Models are showing a classic ice storm setup with shallow cold air in place... Due to the shallow nature of the air expect models to trend colder at the surface as they get a better handle on the setup.12 EURO looks like the CMC now fwiw. BTW getting a glancing blow is better if you want winter precip,than getting all the cold and DRY air aimed directly at us.

[Haris]

[txtwister78]

The Euro's upper flow actually looks much more like the Canadian than the GFS which is very progressive. Also don't forget we are talking about two parts here. The upper flow of cold will almost always go east towards the Great Lakes but the HP dense shallow air has an easier time down the Rockies. Just the reality of flow over North America west to east. We're never going to get the coldest part of any air mass compared to the Great Lakes and Northeast. There's a lot of blocking in the AO/NAO domain as a result. It's like 1985 where to the east is where wicked cold temps were but the foot+ of snow was San Antonio. Not saying that here but just an example of the 2 part play. You're going to drive yourself crazy with the back and forth of cold in an Arctic outbreak, potentially shallow air mass at the onset.

As far as the Euro, it's hanging back the baja low much like the Canadian. It's going to get cold everywhere, just the variability of upper features is swinging wildly.

Edit: If you were a fan of some cold and then a good snow storm you would definitely want the baja low feature to slow down and hang out a bit until after the cold is in place and overrun later.

Great analysis here. 1985 (not saying this is the forecast either) had 2 shots of arctic air with similar setup of low that dropped into Mexico.

Globals always have a difficult time seeing the shallow arctic air and so as you correctly point out here, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see flip flops a few more times before we begin to see a more definitive trend.

[Ntxw]

The Euro's upper flow actually looks much more like the Canadian than the GFS which is very progressive. Also don't forget we are talking about two parts here. The upper flow of cold will almost always go east towards the Great Lakes but the HP dense shallow air has an easier time down the Rockies. Just the reality of flow over North America west to east. We're never going to get the coldest part of any air mass compared to the Great Lakes and Northeast. There's a lot of blocking in the AO/NAO domain as a result. It's like 1985 where to the east is where wicked cold temps were but the foot+ of snow was San Antonio. Not saying that here but just an example of the 2 part play. You're going to drive yourself crazy with the back and forth of cold in an Arctic outbreak, potentially shallow air mass at the onset.

As far as the Euro, it's hanging back the baja low much like the Canadian. It's going to get cold everywhere, just the variability of upper features is swinging wildly.

Edit: If you were a fan of some cold and then a good snow storm you would definitely want the baja low feature to slow down and hang out a bit until after the cold is in place and overrun later.

Great analysis here. 1985 (not saying this is the forecast either) had 2 shots of arctic air with similar setup of low that dropped into Mexico.

Globals always have a difficult time seeing the shallow arctic air and so as you correctly point out here, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see flip flops a few more times before we begin to see a more definitive trend.

If we take a peek at the trend (lets say euro) even at 850mb and run it back a few days one can see it is only now starting to grasp the expanse of the cold. Sure we're focused on where the hottest purples and pinks are but if you look at the bigger picture, the magnitude and expanse of the Arctic Airmass is just now starting to be realized by the Globals.

[South Texas Storms]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7tkXvr7/175899-C8-8-D91-4535-ABC1-30-CACECAB5-F6.jpg [/url]

The end of today's 12z Euro run is a winter weather lovers dream in TX. If the run went out a little further, we would likely see it show snow for much of the state and Dallas would have over a foot.

[txtwister78]

FWIW. At the very least, the weather will be more interesting early next week with colder than normal temps and possibly a better setup for precip. You have to like your chances in February with that type of pattern in place as it relates to something hitting across Texas.