Texas Winter 2014-2015

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we'really getting close to ice storm territory in the latest GFS around these parts. Definitely something to keep an eye on!

[srainhoutx]

Interestingly the 12Z Euro has joined the GFS solutions (both the old and the new parallel GFS) in suggesting we may have some p-type issues to contend with later this week.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This +AO is really hurting our chances for the big cold to come down. The size of these HP's are breathtaking. If the Upper level winds cooperated a bit more by crashing these HP's in our direction, lots of records would be falling.

[BigB0882]

Do we normally see a +AO during Ninos? It is really getting on my nerves.

[Portastorm]

Do we normally see a +AO during Ninos? It is really getting on my nerves.

I don't think there is any direct relationship between the two. We've seen weak Ninos (like now) in both -AO and +AO.

[cycloneye]

Well this present "El Nino" ??? is not a normal one but I call it a hybrid as it is not a help to a very normal winter pattern at this time.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF came in very cold for Deep South Texas on Saturday with temperatures throughout the day in the mid to upper 30s with light rain! Earlier runs had Thursday morning lows in the low to mid 30s but now has upper 30s to low 40s.

[Tireman4]

I wonder if the trend is your friend RGV...?

[orangeblood]

Also, there appears to be something BIG brewing next week in the extended (days 9-10)....as the PNA pops positive and Arctic Air entrained in the lower 48, we could see a southern plains to east coast monster form. The Euro, Canadian, and JMA are picking up on this but the GFS cuts off the energy in the southwest US. Something to keep an eye on in the extended.

[Rgv20]

I wonder if the trend is your friend RGV...?

I hope so! 12GFS, GFS Parallel, and CMC have temperatures throughout Saturday for Deep South Texas ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s with light rain, Euro is the coldest of the Global Models.

[wxman57]

12z EC has an inch of snow centered just west of Corpus Christi Friday night. Considering how poorly it did identifying snow over Texas last week (how was that Dallas snow storm?), I'd say its snow algorithm needs adjusting.

[BigB0882]

I wouldn't trust the Euro's snow map unless it showed me with a foot of snow. Even then it would probably be 2 inches of freezing rain. It is just no good in the south, not that many other models perform much better with their snow algorithm.

Is there absolutely any hint that the AO may go negative? I swore it was supposed to dive at the end of December but that hasn't worked out. Are AO projections unreliable?

[Rgv20]

12z EC has an inch of snow centered just west of Corpus Christi Friday night. Considering how poorly it did identifying snow over Texas last week (how was that Dallas snow storm?), I'd say its snow algorithm needs adjusting.

Euro is forecasting temperatures at the 925mb and 850mb level to be in 4C and 5C respectively, Pretty hard to squeeze snow with those temperatures.

[Portastorm]

I have to agree with wxman57 and BigB0082 about the unreliable Euro snow maps. I've seen enough this winter to know they're not very good.

[orangeblood]

I wouldn't trust the Euro's snow map unless it showed me with a foot of snow. Even then it would probably be 2 inches of freezing rain. It is just no good in the south, not that many other models perform much better with their snow algorithm.

Is there absolutely any hint that the AO may go negative? I swore it was supposed to dive at the end of December but that hasn't worked out. Are AO projections unreliable?

AO showing signs of tanking in a few days...fits with the Strat Warming occurring over the Arctic Circle into Greenland

[Patriot12]

I wonder if the trend is your friend RGV...?

I hope so! 12GFS, GFS Parallel, and CMC have temperatures throughout Saturday for Deep South Texas ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s with light rain, Euro is the coldest of the Global Models.

Based on that, what's your forecast for the Causeway Run (Port Isabel-SPI) January 10 at 10:00 AM?

[wxman57]

Based on that, what's your forecast for the Causeway Run (Port Isabel-SPI) January 10 at 10:00 AM?

Euro says temps in the low-mid 30s for this run, not to mention the gusty wind and moderate very cold rain during the event.

Have fun!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12z EC has an inch of snow centered just west of Corpus Christi Friday night. Considering how poorly it did identifying snow over Texas last week (how was that Dallas snow storm?), I'd say its snow algorithm needs adjusting.

That would put me in the bullseye, but I am not going to even attempt kicking that football.

Sorry Lucy.

[Brent]

From FWD, possible multiple rounds:


THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY IS THE TIMING
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WANDER IN THAT AREA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AND
THEN MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD
TRACK...ARRIVING IN TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR SNOW OCCURRING WITH THIS
FORCING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY. DUE TO A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AS OF THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IF THERE ARE
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN AT SOME POINT.

DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT HOURS...MOST OF THE MODELS DRY OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW DRY THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE AND HOW LONG
IT WILL TAKE TO OVERCOME ANY LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR. WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FRIDAY NIGHT BUT PROFILE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX IF IT
DOES PRECIPITATE. THEREFORE WILL MENTION A SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
MENTION ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF...EXCEPT THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE LOW BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR.

WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...ANY WINTRY MIX WOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIQUID RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL COMPLETELY MOISTEN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. AM
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A COLD RAIN DURING THIS TIME. SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO OCCUR MONDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

[aggiecutter]

From the Shreveport AFD:

MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. ONLY A FEW MILES CAN
MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIP
TYPES...AMOUNTS...AND WHETHER PRECIP OCCURS AT ALL. AT FIRST
GLANCE...THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WITH A
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MASS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME KIND OF WINTRY
PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY-MONDAY. /09/