Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txtwister78]

I wouldn't trust the Euro Weeklies anymore than I trust a 7 day forecast. Lol. I can't tell you how many times those have been wrong and typically love to blowtorch extended "outlooks". I would basically toss those in the "yeah whatever" category for now. Bottom line is after a cold shot like this you can expect a pull back as it relates to a moderation of temps across the US in most regions.

The GFS Ensemble Extended however continues to show the EPO going negative again after the 5th of Jan. Something to watch over the next 10 days, but I definitely wouldn't write anything off in terms of winter being over based on the JMA or the Weeklies. JMA has flip flopped over its last two runs (not unusual btw).

Just pointing it out because one hit wonder winters have happened several times in the past, no guarantees this type pattern will return.

Sure, they've happened before but I'm sure you would agree that in and of itself isn't a guarantee either. In looking at the weeklies tonight, I actually see more cause for optimism than uncertainty if you want more winter. The control run actually has this going into the second week of Jan. The mean is obviously warmer but doesn't look terrible.



In addition, both the mean & control show the EPO trending negative along with keeping the AO mostly negative around that second week. So as mentioned earlier while I agree these can flip either way and aren't always reliable tools for outlooks in the longer range, as we sit here today at least, I can still see more cause for optimism than the alternative. But hey that's the fun part (I think at least) of looking at all this going forward to see how it eventually plays out.

[HockeyTx82]

Well this place is dead.

[gpsnowman]

Well this place is dead.

You and Yukon should be two of the first to feel the arctic blast. I for one can't wait to feel the front blow through with the immediate temp drop.

[HockeyTx82]

Well this place is dead.

You and Yukon should be two of the first to feel the arctic blast. I for one can't wait to feel the front blow through with the immediate temp drop.

I'll be keeping an eye on my La Crosse Weather Station from my app and I'll report in.

[Cpv17]

Well this place is dead.

Nothing really to talk about. Tbh I’m more interested in talking about what’s going to happen later this winter than this Artic front.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM 3k shows flurries in north Texas after frontal passage drops us into the low 20s

[Iceresistance]

Still -50°F readings in the Yukon Territory.

[Brent]

Well this place is dead.

Nothing really to talk about. Tbh I’m more interested in talking about what’s going to happen later this winter than this Artic front.

Yeah even north of here snow totals have come way down apparently. The historic blizzard has vanished

[Ntxw]

Fyi over the weekend runs had western Kansas in the 20s on Euro. It is currently in the single digits. EC continues to be garbage with surface temperatures in such air masses. GFS looks better.

[Ntxw]

Euro latest.



Current

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner:

Powerful arctic cold front will arrive on Thursday.

Dangerous cold air mass will require cold weather preparations to mitigate property damage….preparations must be completed by midday Thursday.

As forecasted for the last several days by global forecast models, an impressive pool of cold air and extremely high surface pressures have formed over NW Canada. Current temperature of -58F at Mayo in NW Canada and surface pressures of 1061mb support what has been shown and adds confidence in the forecast going forward. Near historic arctic surface high (1064mb is the current record from Dec 1983) will move southward toward eastern Montana and western North Dakota over the next 24 hours with an associated arctic front forming and then plowing down the plains on Wednesday and Thursday. This front will move from the Canadian border to the Gulf of Mexico in a 36-40 hour time period. Very cold temperatures will be unleashed across the central and eastern US through the holiday weekend.

Timing:
As expected the frontal timing has been moving up as is common in these extreme dense and cold arctic air masses. NAM and ICON are the fastest and show the arctic front into the Brazos Valley just after noon on Thursday and off the coast by sunset…will bring the front through the Brazos Valley noon-200pm, metro Houston 200-400pm and off the coast by 600pm. This timing may need to be moved up more if models keep trending faster. Temperatures will warm to near 70 ahead of the boundary and then the bottom falls out with temperatures dropping 20-30 degrees in a few hours and very strong winds. This will be every bit of a “blue norther” and will result in dramatic temperature and wind impacts in a very short period of time.

Temperatures:
Dangerously cold air mass will quickly advance into the region Thursday evening with temperatures having fallen some 50 degrees in 4-6 hours Thursday afternoon and evening. Freeze line will quickly advance southward and overtake the entire region by midnight with impressive cold air advection in progress. Hard freeze (below 24 degrees for 2 hrs of longer) is likely over the entire region (including the coast) by Friday AM with low 10’s north of HWY 105, mid 10’s down to I-10, and upper 10’s/low 20’s to the coast.

Temperatures on Friday will struggle to reach freezing south of I-10 and remain solidly below freezing north of I-10 all day and then fall back below hard freeze criteria again into Saturday AM, with mid to upper 10’s north of HWY 105, near 20 down to I-10 and low to mid 20’s coast.

Much of the area should rise above freezing on Christmas Eve, but only into the mid and upper 30’s and all of the area will fall back below freezing for Christmas morning with another hard freeze possible north of I-10.

Duration:
Much of the area will experience a prolonged freeze event with durations ranging from 24-36 hours below freezing south of I-10 to 40-45 hours below freezing north of I-10. The intensity and long duration of the freezing temperatures will require maximum freeze protection for infrastructure that is vulnerable to extreme cold.

Wind:
Impressive pressure gradient will be in place across the southern plains by Thursday afternoon/evening as near record surface high build southward down the plains. Sustained winds of 25-35mph will be common with frequent gusts of 40-45mph, especially west of I-45. Coastal areas (Matagorda Bay to Galveston Bay) may experience several hours of 45-55mph winds early Friday morning. Winds will slowly weaken into Friday with speed of 20-25mph and then drop even more Friday night into the 5-10mph range as the arctic surface high centers over NW TX. Isolated power outages will be possible on Thursday night and Friday morning given the expected strong winds. A wind advisory will be required for all or parts of the area.

Wind Chills:
Dangerous wind chills are forecasted over the entire region Thursday night into Friday morning with values near 0 and below north of I-10 and in the mid 1’s south of I-10. A wind chill advisory or warning will be required for much of the area Thursday night into Friday. With winds weakening on Friday, wind chill values will trend toward actual air temperatures by Friday afternoon and evening. Persons should mitigate prolonged exposure to these wind chills.

Marine:
Extremely dangerous marine conditions will develop Thursday night across all of the inland bays and Gulf waters. Widespread gale conditions and potential storm force winds (48kts sustained) will be possible Thursday into Friday as the bitter cold air mass moves over the warmer waters accelerating the transfer of moment in the form of very strong winds. Seas will build 9-15ft across the nearshore waters with frequent blowing sea spray reducing visibility. Freeze line will move over the Gulf waters by Friday morning with ice formation possible on vessels due to blowing spray over the Gulf waters. Strong winds will drive blow out tides across all inland bays with water levels quickly falling Thursday night and Friday morning. Tide levels forecasted to fall below 2.0-2.5 feet on Friday and may go lower and increasing the risk of vessel groundings. Small craft should be in port by midday Thursday and remain in port through Saturday.

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest ENSO report still going with equal chances of La Nina/Neutral conditions headed into January, and 71% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions headed into February.

[Ntxw]

Well praising the GFS too isn't that much better. 6z is a little off too.

[snowballzzz]

Such a bummer to have this cold air for a few days with zero precip. After this weekend, looks to warm up quite a bit. Looks to be quite warm for Texas through the 3rd week of Jan (end of run), based off of the CFS this morning. Looks like the middle of the month might bring some colder weather to parts of the southeast but a warm Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

Watching a Livestream of ERCOT. Christ Coleman, their Chief Meteorologist predicted a low of 17 for Austin and 21 for Houston on Friday morning. I can't remember what he said for Dallas(?). 16 or 17(?).

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/ercot-b ... old-front/

[Iceresistance]

Just dropped to 32°F outside, did the first front with the Arctic Air just come in?

[rwfromkansas]

For me, not much to talk about. It will be cold. But, no snow means nothing really otherwise to discuss.

Even my hometown looks to only get 2 inches now when it was 8-10 the other day. That will melt off by the time I get there of course next Friday. Just a bummer.

I’m grateful for the holiday chill though.

[orangeblood]

Watching a Livestream of ERCOT. Christ Coleman, their Chief Meteorologist predicted a low of 17 for Austin and 21 for Houston on Friday morning. I can't remember what he said for Dallas(?). 16 or 17(?).

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/ercot-b ... old-front/

Latest RGEM quite a bit colder than that...Local Mets seem to be hugging the NAM

[orangeblood]

Just dropped to 32°F outside, did the first front with the Arctic Air just come in?

dense/low level cold...beats the model EVERY SINGLE TIME

[Iceresistance]

Just dropped to 32°F outside, did the first front with the Arctic Air just come in?

dense/low level cold...beats the model EVERY SINGLE TIME

Yep, it sneaks its way in like a Ninja!