Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Currently at 10:31pm we have clear skies, temp of 31 with DP of 30 and humidity 100%. With a somewhat higher dew point tonight than last night, am guessing that my morning low be 26 degrees. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Good evening all. Tonights GFS 00z showing nothing really new in the forecast for next week. Dominate High pressure in the West and Cool trough in the East. So for us in other words....Monday through at least Saturday of next week will again be mostly sunny and dry with 850MB temps in the +3C to near +6C range from about Tuesday through early next weekend, and 500MB vorticity heights between 558 to 564DM. So looks like we can expect much of same....temps in the lower to mid 50`s and lows in the mid-upper 20`s to lower 30`s.

PS: Another great, and mostly sunny day today with just a few scattered morning Stratus clouds. Our high today was 49 with a low of 25. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

It would appear that some record lows could be in danger over the next few days. The one that really strikes my eye is the record low of 30 on Tuesday, for Sea - Tac. That is a weak record for this time of year, but it has stood since 1957. If there is no wind on Monday night, that record is in serious jeopardy.

It continues to look like a big time inversion could devlop by Wednesday or so. With VERY weak offshore pressure gradients, and an upper level ridge right on top of us, we could end up with with well below normal daytime highs. This is still a very hard thing to predict, but it's quite possible.

The models continue to struggle with how, and when we are finally going to come out of this dry period. It is literally a coin flip right now whether the ridge will move westward and eventually open the door to moisture from the NW, or whether it move east and put us in a warm and moist SW flow. The latest ECMWF actually shows a cool trough digging in from the NW by the 7 - 10 day period.

YET another cold night...already down to 30 in Covington at 11:00pm. We could actually see 20 lows of 32 or below this month. That would make this the first month to have 20 or more since Feb 1993.

[snow_wizzard]

Wow! Talk about a messy ensemble map.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ense ... 216_e.html

That makes it about as clear as mud what will be happening at day 9!

[andycottle]

Oh wow, snow wizzard! Think we ought to use a fork to clear it all up..lol.
-- Andy

Currently 30.7 as of 12:04am

[TT-SEA]

I think a messy inversion is very unlikely for Wednesday.

Here is the surface map on the latest GFS. Looks like good offshore flow for a continuing sunshine and pleasant days.

[TT-SEA]

Also... we are starting the week off with very dry air and have had no real rain for a long time. It is REALLY dry out there.

The ground at the house we are building is summer dry right now. For 3 months it has been mud... not anymore!!

Good offshore flow... dry air... dry ground... should be no inversion. It looks like 50's for highs.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...Very true, that we will have a nice offshore gradient for the 72 - 96 hour period, but after that it really dies out. I will admit the lack of moisture makes this one a tough call, but I have seen enough low level moisture come from seemingly nowhere to make some messy soup. It will take perfect atmospheric conditions to condense some moisture out of this. As you know, once fog takes a foothold it can feed on itself as the ground gets wet from dew and all of that.

At any rate, I am ready for an interesting ride in the coming months. Something is up this year! I have found the 5 driest Feb's in history. They are 1868, 1889, 1928, 1988, and 1993. Of those years three had severe winters the next year. Very interstingly all of those years had at or above normal precip in March. I still need to look a lot harder at these and other years, for temperature comparisons too. 1928 was a really good match, which is very exciting because that led to some really cold stuff in the following years.

[andycottle]

Good morning all. It`s another chilly morning out there, and a bit frosty. Current temp at 9:11am is 31 degrees with sunny skies. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hi folks. Taking a look at the 06 and 12z GFS...looks like our dry weather will continue into Macrh 1st, with next chance of precip on the 2nd, though 06z has light precip by the 28th. We`ll see. In the short term...high pressure dominates the West while a cool trough is in the East. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

A little bit of Fraser river outflow today...Dew points in the upper teens and 20s combined with much lighter pressure gradients tonight could spell one of the coldest nights of the winter.

The record low for Sea - Tac tomorrow is 25, which is probably out of reach. The record for Tuesday is 30. It is going to totally depend on how much wind Sea - Tac has tomorrow night for that. If they are calm, that record is in danger.

For my records...Today was the 6th consecutive low of 25 or below. That is tied with Feb 1993 for the most since Feb 1989 which had 8. No matter how you slice it this has been a very impressive run of cold nights. This kind of a clear, cold night regime is indictative of being in an overall cold climate period for this area.

[R-Dub]

Well I am back from our place on the columbia river, it was awesome over there!! Wish I could get over there more, only made it over twice last yr Well the high yesterday at my place over there (just north of Orondo which is right between Wenatchee and Chelan on the Columbia river) was 42 degrees, the low this morning was 18 degrees.
Here are some pics I took over there...............

This is from our deck looking out at the columbia...............

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Here is another from the deck.............

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

This is down at our community dock looking out..............

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Another from the dock, you can see the hills still have a little snow where its protected from the sun(last night when the moon light hit the snow on those mountains, it was breathtaking!!!!)............

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

And this last one is near the top of Stevens pass, look at the lack of snow........WE ARE IN TROUBLE!!!!

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Current temp here at home is 42.4 degrees and clear

[R-Dub]

Sure is quiet around these parts tonight

2/20/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:30:27 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 34.5
Humidity (%) 61.4
Wind (mph) NNW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.02
Dew Point: 28.2 ºF

[andycottle]

Hey great trip pics, there Randy! Looks like you also had some nice weather there as well. Currently at 7:23pm we have a temp of 38 and 56% humidity. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Thanks Andy

Currently 33.1 degrees!

Tonight will mark day day 7 in a row of frosty nights!!! And 12 out of the last 14 days have been frosty as well!! If we have frost all next week as well, that will be the longest stretch of sub freezing frosty nights in a very long time!!!

[andycottle]

Your welcome Randy! Currently 37 with clear skies at 7:58pm. -- Andy

[andrewr]

Currently 34F here. Things are going to be very slow for this thread through the week. Not much for anyone to say until the chance of rain gets closer to happening. Plus everyone will be out enjoying the weather as it will not last forever.

[cloud9]

Just got back from Darrington and Marblemount, snow is still on the ground. It was absoulutly beautiful there. We let our doberman and wolf run up and down the Skagit river.

[andycottle]

Looking at tonights 18z GFS and GEM model, they both show the continuation of the mostly sunny and dry spell through all of next. Now however..18z shows some precip by March. 4th, while the GEM shows precip by at least the evening of the 28th. 500MB vorticity heights tomorrow are about 552DM and rising up to 564DM for the Wednesday - Friday period, then lowering to 558DM for Saturday. So with high heights, 850MB temps of +3 to very near +6C, and good off shore flow from the NW...spells surface temps of possibly in the mid 50`s for highs, and lows in the mid 20`s to near 30.
-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

It is certainly interesting to ponder how and when we will come out of this current cool and dry pattern we are in. The 18z and new 0z hint at yet another reinforcement of cool and dry Canadian air dropping in next weekend. It also appears that some kind of a change may be in the cards for early March. The 0z shows westerly flow with fairly low heights setting in just after day 10.

R-Dub...Those pix from Stevens Pass are astounding. I would guess it was late October or early Nov to look at that. Keep in mind, however, we did get a lot of rain in Dec and Jan. That had to have done something to help fill the reservoirs. If we have a cold and wet late winter and spring, we could still be OK. It is intersting to note, that the 5 driest Febs on record all led to normal or above normal precip in March. I am actually excited about the pattern we have seen this month. It certainly indicates that the endless zonal flow pattern (during the winters) is over. That is what has kept us from getting any BIG cold spells since 1996. We need blocking to get the really good stuff around here. We will see if next winter begins a return to colder winters for us!