Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Tammie]

FW NWS

LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Onward/

BLUF:
*Very cold Arctic air will arrive this weekend, bringing
dangerously cold and record-breaking temperatures to North and
Central Texas.
*Wintry precipitation is possible across the region beginning
Sunday night and continuing into Monday.
*Snow will be the dominant precipitation type along the Red River
and much of North Texas.
*A wintry mix is expected generally along and south of the I-20
corridor.
*Precipitation rates will be light and coverage of precipitation
will not be 100%. However, any wintry precipitation that reaches
the surface will stick and likely will not melt until Wednesday.
*The main concern for this event continues to be the very cold
temperatures. Temperatures will be below freezing for most areas
Sunday morning through midday Wednesday.

Discussion:
Arctic air will arrive with a strong cold front on Saturday. The
front will cross the Red River midday or early afternoon and sweep
through the region from north to south through the rest of the
afternoon and evening. Strong cold air advection will result in
plummeting temperatures Saturday night, with Sunday morning lows
in the teens to low 20s. Temperatures will remain below freezing
Sunday for most locations. The main exception will be portions of
Central Texas where temperatures are currently forecast to reach
32-37 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures will only peak in the 20s
throughout the day.

By Sunday evening, a shortwave trough will be swinging into West
Texas. As this occurs, increasing isentropic ascent will result in
the development of precipitation across North and Central Texas.
Snow is expected across much of North Texas, with a wintry mix
south of I-20. Temperatures will be very cold Sunday night into
Monday morning as Arctic air continues to spill southward. Monday
morning temperatures will be in the single digits along the Red
River to upper teens across Central Texas. Combined with breezy
north winds, wind chills will range from -15 degrees to 5 degrees
across the region. The best potential for wintry precipitation is
expected Monday morning through early to mid afternoon. However,
PoPs are still capped at 20-30% through this time period as
widespread wintry precipitation is not expected, and confidence
in the exact location of precipitation is still somewhat low at
this time. Right now, the best chances will likely be across
eastern North Texas, but there`s some indication that Central
Texas may have slightly better potential than previously thought.
Now that we`re getting within range of the NAM and other hi-res
guidance, this will help us hone in on timing/location of
precipitation over the next 24-48 hours.

Bone-chilling temperatures will continue on Monday, with all
locations remaining below freezing. All precipitation will end by
Monday afternoon, but breezy, frigid, and cloudy conditions will
continue. The deterministic GFS brings another shortwave into the
region Monday evening, resulting in one final round of wintry
precipitation. However, this remains the outlier and no PoPs are
mentioned Monday evening onward. Tuesday night will be the coldest
night, with low temperatures bottoming out between 5 and 15
degrees across the region. Wind chills as low as -5 to -15 are
expected, with the coldest conditions along the Red River.

Sub-freezing temperatures will continue on Tuesday with highs in
the mid to upper 20s. Fortunately, however, sunshine will finally
return after a cloudy few days. Our streak of sub-freezing
temperatures will end Wednesday, as temperatures warm above
freezing around midday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 30s
to low 50s. Another cold front is expected to arrive late next
week.

Accumulations:
The accumulations for this event are not anticipated to be
particularly significant, especially compared to the more
noteworthy winter events over the past few years. We`ll have a
few things working in our favor... (1) available moisture supports
light precipitation rates, (2) the sub-cloud layer will be quite
dry, which will promote evaporation/sublimation of light
precipitation, particularly Sunday night, and (3) coverage will
not be 100%. With these things in mind, the following
accumulations are reasonable at this time:

*Snowfall totals will be highest across eastern North Texas and
the Red River where average totals will be between 0.5-1", but
as high as 1-1.5" for some areas.
*Ice accumulations will be confined to areas along and south of
I-20 and will likely be a few hundredths of an inch. Isolated ice
accumulations upwards of 0.10" are possible for eastern Central
Texas.

Given we`re still 3 days out from this event, the expected
accumulations are certainly still subject to change. Be sure to
check back as the finer details continue to come into focus.

Impacts:
Despite the light accumulations, very cold temperatures will allow
any wintry precipitation to stick to elevated surface, roadways,
powerlines, trees, etc. Therefore, moderate impacts to both travel
and infrastructure are expected with this event. With the return
of sunshine on Tuesday, it`s possible some melting may occur,
especially for areas that reach ~30 degrees. However, any residual
water Tuesday night will refreeze again Wednesday morning.
Conditions should see rapid improvement on Wednesday as all
locations warm above freezing by midday.

[opticsguy]

Ralph, how bad were the storms in lindale? I'm headed out to Holly Lake tomorrow to hold down the fort.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ralph, how bad were the storms in lindale? I'm headed out to Holly Lake tomorrow to hold down the fort.

Not too bad. Thought I heard some hail but must of been small as didn't see anything on ground. In the dark I didn't notice indications of issues from wind.

[snowballzzz]

What a bummer that our two shots of snow are now looking like we won’t get much of anything at all. Chance number 1 this morning has come and gone (originally calling for icy road conditions and up to 2 inches of snow)- nada. Just a cold wind. What was looking like 4-8” on Sunday night is now looking like maybe a dusting to 2” if we’re lucky. Such a bummer when these events come along every winter and then disappoint at the last minute. It does make sense due to such a cold airmass and limited moisture to work with. Id just rather have some snow to go along with bitter cold temperatures, but I guess we still have another 6-8 weeks to see an actual snowstorm.

[Gotwood]

Maybe I’ll just try an anti jinx. Winter cancel! A few days of cold and then back up to the 50s just a dry cold make sure to bring the chapstick it will be over soon spring is almost here.

[Portastorm]

Looking at the timing of the Arctic front for south central Texas, it’s weird seeing the HRRR some 6-7 hours ahead of the NAM. HRRR has it late Saturday evening while the NAM says the wee hours of Sunday. Hmm …

Concerned about a legitimate 72 hours of temps =<32° here. Infrastructure here shaky enough on a normal day.

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner

Cold arctic air mass heading for Texas

Hard freeze likely for much of the area early next week.

Slight chance of freezing rain/drizzle Sunday night into Monday morning for portions of SE TX.

Discussion:
Cold arctic air mass over NW Canada currently with temperatures in the -40 to -45 range will begin its southward movement later today down the plains and into Texas on Saturday. There has been little change in the timing of the arrival of the frontal boundary into SE TX late Saturday night into Sunday morning over much of the area with temperatures falling into the 30’s during the day on Sunday. Some of the guidance has been trying to hang the front up before reaching the coast but think the cold dense air mass will push offshore.

A weak upper level disturbance will move across the area Sunday night into Monday with the potential for scattered light precipitation. Thermal profiles show a shallow arctic air mass near the surface with increasing temperatures with height and heavily favors a freezing rain/drizzle setup versus any sleet or snow. There is not a lot of moisture to work with, but it does not take much freezing drizzle to cause issues especially on bridges and overpasses. Current thinking is amounts of less than .10 of an inch and likely more in the .01 to .05 of an inch range. Currently looks like the majority of the freezing precipitation will remain west and north of the metro area, but would not rule out seeing something down into north and west Harris County depending on surface air temperatures. This part of the forecast has the most uncertainty and will be monitored closely over the next 24-36 hours for any changes that could bring any travel related impacts across more of the area.

No big changes to the temperature forecast with a cold air mass in place from Sunday-early Wednesday. Hard freezes for many areas are likely early next week with Monday AM temperatures below 30 along and north of US 59 and Tuesday/Wednesday morning into the upper/mid 10’s north of I-10 and low to mid 20’s south. Temperatures may hover near or just a bit above freezing on Monday over much of the area depending on clouds and light precipitation. Dangerous wind chills will be in place over the area Monday and Tuesday with values in the 1’s and 10’s…persons should limit outdoor exposure to these conditions.

Intensity and duration of freezing temperatures will be similar to the December 2022 cold air event.

Preparations:

Cold weather preparations should be underway and completed by Saturday evening. Proper precautions will help to mitigate damages to infrastructure, pets/livestock, plants, and people.


Proper winterization of any exposed pipes/plumbing will be needed to prevent damage. Sprinkler systems must be shut off and properly drained. Pipes/plumbing on elevated homes must be protected from the ground to the entry point of the structure. Know where the main water shut off is in case pipes freeze or break.

Pets/livestock will require proper shelter to protect from the cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Prolonged exposure to the forecasted temperatures and wind may be fatal to unprotected livestock and pets. Monitor water sources as typical sources may freeze over.

Tropical plants/vegetation will require maximum freeze protection. Unprotected tropical vegetation will be killed and even protect vegetation will likely suffer heavy damage.

Persons should limit outdoor exposure during the cold as wind chills will fall to dangerous levels. Utilize heating sources properly to reduce the risk of fire and carbon monoxide poisoning.

[Iceresistance]

Having a little bit of snow right now, 17°F

[Will_TX]

Cold air is already racing SE… Dallas and surrounding area already in the upper 20’s. Wind is out of the WNW around 20. It is 53 here in Lufkin, TX. I feel it will be in the 20’s when i leave work to head back to Garrison.

[Brent]

Well technically it's snowing but yeah it's amazing to me how all the moisture from last night went poof

I really hope Sunday isn't just another dusting we've already had one and we need to do better

[bubba hotep]

The euro is utter doo doo

Crazy how the Euro went from leading the way with winter wx and then all of a sudden flipped to the driest model. Across the 06z guidance, there is a tread back towards higher qpf.

[Wthrfan]

Upstream temps this weekend are modelled to approach -70F in MT and temps as far south as NW OK look to be -10s. I cannot see how this air mass puts brakes on before it gets well into the Gulf.

57's wall?!

[Ralph's Weather]

Upstream temps this weekend are modelled to approach -70F in MT and temps as far south as NW OK look to be -10s. I cannot see how this air mass puts brakes on before it gets well into the Gulf.

57's wall?!

The only explanation there is.

[gboudx]

Just an observation. Here in Rockwall our forecasted low for today was 30. I woke up at 5:45 and it was 34. The temp has been steadily dropping all morning and it's now 27. So we're under the forecasted low.

[txtwister78]

NAM has been increasing freezing rain accumulations over SC TX points east the last few runs. Sleet just north of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see NWS go more bullish on this in their AFD.

[Tammie]

NAM has been increasing freezing rain accumulations over SC TX points east the last few runs. Sleet just north of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see NWS go more bullish on this in their AFD.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1705060800/1705363200-AuAaokkayYw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1705060800/1705363200-6kyGoqU9dhA.png

And nothing for north Texas?

[Tammie]

NAM has been increasing freezing rain accumulations over SC TX points east the last few runs. Sleet just north of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see NWS go more bullish on this in their AFD.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1705060800/1705363200-AuAaokkayYw.png
And nothing for north Texas?
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1705060800/1705363200-6kyGoqU9dhA.png

[TropicalTundra]

NAM has been increasing freezing rain accumulations over SC TX points east the last few runs. Sleet just north of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see NWS go more bullish on this in their AFD.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1705060800/1705363200-AuAaokkayYw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1705060800/1705363200-6kyGoqU9dhA.png

Doesn't look like i'll see any snow... at least no freezing rain though. Would rather drive in sleet than ice

[txtwister78]

NAM has been increasing freezing rain accumulations over SC TX points east the last few runs. Sleet just north of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see NWS go more bullish on this in their AFD.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1705060800/1705363200-AuAaokkayYw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1705060800/1705363200-6kyGoqU9dhA.png

And nothing for north Texas?

Not on this particular run. Sleet shifted a little south.

[TropicalTundra]

12z RGEM much faster and dense with the cold... single digits in Oklahoma tomorrow morning and -25 in Kansas Sunday morning.. brutal