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wxman22 wrote:This upcoming storm also has some similarities to the Feb 2022 storm.
Brent wrote:wxman22 wrote:This upcoming storm also has some similarities to the Feb 2022 storm.
Yeah there's definitely some big EPS members here... No question there
I mean I'm trying to low ball because of our recent track record with Arctic air eating up totals(everything since 2021) but we'll see
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:wxman22 wrote:This upcoming storm also has some similarities to the Feb 2022 storm.
Yeah there's definitely some big EPS members here... No question there
I mean I'm trying to low ball because of our recent track record with Arctic air eating up totals(everything since 2021) but we'll see
Yeah for those of us north of central TX, likely any busts is gonna be qpf which is why I look to ensembles and wpc for trends. Those to the south with shallow arctic air it is a play of how cold how fast.
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:
Yeah there's definitely some big EPS members here... No question there
I mean I'm trying to low ball because of our recent track record with Arctic air eating up totals(everything since 2021) but we'll see
Yeah for those of us north of central TX, likely any busts is gonna be qpf which is why I look to ensembles and wpc for trends. Those to the south with shallow arctic air it is a play of how cold how fast.
Strength of that High means more for southern Texas than Northern and Western
Ntxw wrote:With these very high qpf and very cold temps, someone in the goldilocks zone could see a potential historic event, if the moisture stands.
Significant Arctic Intrusion
[*]Significant arctic cold air intrusion in Texas this weekend
[*]Increasing potential for widespread winter storm behind the arctic front
Over the last 24-hrs global model guidance has come into better agreement that a strong arctic front will cross the state late Friday into early Saturday. Timing is still in question and may move up some as this will be a cold shallow dense arctic air mass…and they tend to arrive earlier than the global guidance indicates. It is likely we won’t have a better idea on timing until Thursday once we come into range of the higher resolution guidance. This air mass will be cold the coldest we have dealt with this season and even though the core of the coldest air misses Texas to the northeast a significant drop in temperatures is almost certain with this front. In fact, the temperature falls are very impressive with the potential to fall from the 60’s and 70’s Friday afternoon quickly below freezing into Saturday morning…depending on the frontal timing. Given we are still 5 days out how cold and how quickly remain in question, but cold air is coming!
Winter Weather:
Shallow cold air mass will entrench into the state on Saturday and expect widespread precipitation to develop within this cold air as warm southerly flow is lifted over the shallow cold dome. Forecast soundings show a strong 850mb warm nose (a layer of warm air about 3,000-5,000 ft above the ground) which supports more of a freezing rain setup (rain falling into a shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface turning to ice). P-type will be strongly controlled by the surface air temperature…33 is all rain and 32 or below would be freezing rain. Additionally, colder air will be moving southward during this period and rain/freezing rain could mix with sleet into later Saturday. There are some differences in the global models on the P-type, duration, and extent of any winter precipitation for SE TX. For now will bring freezing rain southward during the day on Saturday to a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Livingston with a cold rain for the metro area. We are too far out in time for any speculation on forecast amounts of accumulation, but is the setup holds ice accumulations north of Houston could reach amounts that would result in damage to trees and power infrastructure. Only a slightly colder air mass would bring freezing precipitation into the metro area especially the north and west portions.
While there remains decent uncertainty in how cold temperatures will be…winterization of critical infrastructure components should be completed by this Friday.
Monitor forecasts daily for updates
Travel across a large portion of Texas will become difficult as early as late Friday evening and potentially into much of next weekend.
Tireman4 wrote:I am not buying it just quite yet ( for SE Texas). First, it is very hard to get frozen P Type moisture down here. Second, it is even harder to predict it down here. Third, so many variables have to go into it for frozen P type to verify. That being said, the trend is your friend. If the models ( for me) show frozen P Type Thursday onwards, I start buying. Also, Wxman57 and I have generators. Big smile.
Ntxw wrote:Believe it or not we are in range of the short rain guidance to see the upper features. You can't draw it out better than this. Deep TPV to the north/northeast and ULL out west ready to round the base of the trough, high gear subtropical jet strengthening from Hawaii to the EPAC. These set ups are rare.
https://i.imgur.com/xSW9ty6.png
bubba hotep wrote:It's been a while since we've seen EPS panels like this.
https://x.com/whatisthisrds/status/2013268158669377804
it's even got a couple historic totals up hereBrent wrote:
Yeah it's striking me even up here and to be honest the GEFS actually made a move towards the higher EPS totals last run
See all along the EPS has been way more aggressive which as I said earlier has been bizarre to me
Ntxw wrote:Believe it or not we are in range of the short rain guidance to see the upper features. You can't draw it out better than this. Deep TPV to the north/northeast and ULL out west ready to round the base of the trough, high gear subtropical jet strengthening from Hawaii to the EPAC. These set ups are rare.
https://i.imgur.com/xSW9ty6.png
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