Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[cycloneye]

And to add to the two last posts of prior page,the daily SOI is tanking.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[aggiecutter]

Wow, both the 12z Euro and CMC look fairly chilly for next weekend. Interesting ...

From your good friend and protege JB:

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 08/photo/1

[Portastorm]

Wow, both the 12z Euro and CMC look fairly chilly for next weekend. Interesting ...

From your good friend and protege JB:

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 08/photo/1

Oh my!! That would be a game changer.

I guess we all need to enjoy the weather because it is the only weather got, right aggiecutter?!

[aggiecutter]

Wow, both the 12z Euro and CMC look fairly chilly for next weekend. Interesting ...

From your good friend and protege JB:

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 08/photo/1

Oh my!! That would be a game changer.

I guess we all need to enjoy the weather because it is the only weather got, right aggiecutter?!

Larry Cosgrove thinks the eastern half of Texas will be having Reed Timmer type of weather this Friday. This is the first I've heard of this.
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ry-30-2012

[Portastorm]

Yeah and LC also thinks that JB's earlier Tweet about crosspolar flow, as shown by the Euro 7-10 day means, is indeed possible albeit not long lived. All signs seem to be pointing to anti-warm mongerer weather coming up!

[Rgv20]

Even tho is not expected to be a heavy rain event....any rainfall is welcome!


An upper low...currently moving through northern Mexico towards South Texas...will bring us much needed rainfall today. Light rain ahead of the system will affect parts of the region early this morning...turning to showers and isolated thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon. Overall rainfall totals around 1/4 of an inch are expected with isolated heavier amounts possible from any thunderstorm that might develop.

[Rgv20]

CFS Weekly Forecast still calls for below normal temperatures in the longer range (5 thru 13 Feb) for much of Texas.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Yeah and LC also thinks that JB's earlier Tweet about crosspolar flow, as shown by the Euro 7-10 day means, is indeed possible albeit not long lived. All signs seem to be pointing to anti-warm mongerer weather coming up!

The 00Z Euro does indicate some mighty frigid air over Texas next weekend. Down close to 40F on Sunday morning from Dallas southwest to Austin and almost to FREEZING (35-36) for next Monday's low same area. Fortunately, the severe Arctic outbreak next weekend won't last very long.

GFS has temps all across Canada from 30-40F above normal later this week, and even to 15-20F above normal in Alaska. Hard to get really cold down here if it's not very cold up north. Even my cold-mongerer co-worker has given up on winter.

Look on the bright side, though. We may be heading into a little ice age in the near-term:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... again.html

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Yeah and LC also thinks that JB's earlier Tweet about crosspolar flow, as shown by the Euro 7-10 day means, is indeed possible albeit not long lived. All signs seem to be pointing to anti-warm mongerer weather coming up!

The 00Z Euro does indicate some mighty frigid air over Texas next weekend. Down close to 40F on Sunday morning from Dallas southwest to Austin and almost to FREEZING (35-36) for next Monday's low same area. Fortunately, the severe Arctic outbreak next weekend won't last very long.

GFS has temps all across Canada from 30-40F above normal later this week, and even to 15-20F above normal in Alaska. Hard to get really cold down here if it's not very cold up north. Even my cold-mongerer co-worker has given up on winter.

Look on the bright side, though. We may be heading into a little ice age in the near-term:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... again.html

Your cold mongerer co-worker have given up on winter too early, my friend! And when I looked at the 6z GFS, it showed 850 temp anamolies over most of Alaska which were BELOW normal. So I'm honestly not sure to what you are referring in saying that Alaska will have 15-20F above normal.

No sir, your warm mongerer reign this winter is going to end soon ... probably in about a week or so. Cold mongerers will then rule the roost albeit temporary.

[wxman57]

Your cold mongerer co-worker have given up on winter too early, my friend! And when I looked at the 6z GFS, it showed 850 temp anamolies over most of Alaska which were BELOW normal. So I'm honestly not sure to what you are referring in saying that Alaska will have 15-20F above normal.

No sir, your warm mongerer reign this winter is going to end soon ... probably in about a week or so. Cold mongerers will then rule the roost albeit temporary.

I was looking at the GFS ensembles. The 0perational 06Z GFS has Alaska's surface temps going above normal by early next week and up to 10-15F above normal later next week. Same GFS run has 850mb temps rising to near normal by next Sunday and 5-10C above normal next week. Much warmer than that east of Alaska in western Canada.

Warm-mongerers will rule this winter!

[Portastorm]

I don't think you're going to like the 12z GFS run, King of Warm-mongerers.

But I sure like that Arctic Outbreak into Texas it shows at about 10 days!!

[Rgv20]

by 264HRS GFS has a 1061MB High in Nebraska!! Would post a pic but Im at work..

[wxman57]

I don't think you're going to like the 12z GFS run, King of Warm-mongerers.

But I sure like that Arctic Outbreak into Texas it shows at about 10 days!!

Yes, I see. It forecasts temps in the low-mid 20s in Houston on Saturday, Feb. 11th with a high in the mid to upper 30s. Fortunately, this is beyond 10 days and it's the GFS. I'm counting on it coming up with a different solution in a few days - or I need to move farther south!

P.S. 12Z GFS Ensemble forecast doesn't have Houston anywhere near freezing at that same time, indicating that the 12Z run is quite an extreme.

[gboudx]

:uarrow:

Yeah and LC also thinks that JB's earlier Tweet about crosspolar flow, as shown by the Euro 7-10 day means, is indeed possible albeit not long lived. All signs seem to be pointing to anti-warm mongerer weather coming up!

Here's a free vid from Joe on his weatherbell website where he discussions the possible pattern flip. The fab Feb as he calls it.

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-sum ... ry-28-2012

I haven't seen him in a vid in a while. He looks more gaunt than I'm used to seeing him. Is he sick, or started laying off the roids?

[Palmer divide shadow]

You can run but you cant hide sir!somebody has to pay for this 70degree weather in colorado!!!!:)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow: by 264HRS GFS has a 1061MB High in Nebraska!! Would post a pic but Im at work..

This from the ensembles?

[Ntxw]

Patience grasshoppers! We still have to let the MJO propagate, it's only begun (this wave looks comparable to the one we had late January of last year). We won't see what it can do for our neck of the woods until it reaches 8-1. Top this with last week's strato warming event and it will take 1-2 weeks for it to transpire down. The teleconnection cards have been dealt (most negative AO since last winter) eventually the hands will be shown! For now let wxman enjoy his week of mild weather

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim_2.gif

P.S. if you're wondering what's an MJO wave, it's the convection blossoming near/around/just east of Indonesia

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Nevermind i see it now, my ewall was tripping out.

[Portastorm]

I don't know if this has anything to do with the extreme cold solution shown by the 12z GFS, but get a look at this forecasted (by the GFS) MJO ... it almost goes off the charts in phase 7 alone!!!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

:uarrow: by 264HRS GFS has a 1061MB High in Nebraska!! Would post a pic but Im at work..

This from the ensembles?

Ensembles (GFS) have a 1024mb high across the Central Plains at that time. Lots of variance in the long-range ensembles doesn't give me confidence that the current operational run is correct. However, here's a meteogram from the 12Z operational GFS for IAH (Bush airport in north Houston). Note that the temperature points are 12Z and 00Z. The 12Z temp will be close to the morning low, though the afternoon high may be 4-5 deg warmer than the 00Z temp. Also note that I only post the graphic as a curiosity. It's so extreme that I'm not buying it at this time: