Texas Winter 2015-2016

[hriverajr]

It has to do with surface lows love to reform over large bodies of water, heat source. The ULL will weaken and the moisture will wrap around the lower surface pressures. In Ohio's case the Atlantic coastline. Happens here when coastals form over coastal TX on a smaller scale.

Thats why I don't like Texas coastal surface lows in any season. I'm in southwest Texas. Just dries us out normally

[Brent]

yawn...

[wxman57]

yawn...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_41.png

Now you're talking! That's my kind of winter. Unfortunately, winter will likely return in February.

[Brent]

yawn...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_41.png

Now you're talking! That's my kind of winter. Unfortunately, winter will likely return in February.

It better. Everyone is saying wait til February...

[TheProfessor]

Welp most of the hope was loss until I saw the 21z SREF, I know it's not the best model but it has nailed some storms. I believe the SREF was one of the first models to show the extreme of the December 2013 Ice storm, unless i'm mis remembering.

[Tireman4]

yawn...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_41.png

Now you're talking! That's my kind of winter. Unfortunately, winter will likely return in February.[/quote


I jst can't take this. Another January. Arrggghhh...I think I am going to cry..

[TheProfessor]

Don't you just hate it when the models start to suck yo back in but you don't know to trust it. The Nam has shifted north with the SREF. a Well timed transfer could be the difference between 0 inches of snow or 6+ inches. Apparently when ever South-Central Ohio needs a quick Se Transfer it takes longer than modeled, I'm hoping for this to occur again.

[Brent]

So all the sudden I'm seeing widespread rain forecast tomorrow... anyone else see it?

Steve McCauley's radar is impressive for what's happened on the rain front this month:

[JDawg512]

So all the sudden I'm seeing widespread rain forecast tomorrow... anyone else see it?

Steve McCauley's radar is impressive for what's happened on the rain front this month:

No widespread rain for Austin...

[somethingfunny]

Snowpersons?

I think that is how you say it do to political correctness Saying Snowman is not cool bro

Who makes a snowwoman? I've always been very anti-PC.

Anyway, this would not be a storm to miss if you have the opportunity to travel to DC and experience it.

Ah.... my friends and I have built snowwomen, and snowhermaphrodites, and assorted other snowsculptures, and.... they were most definitely not PC nor suitable for sharing on this fine family forum.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like much of N and E TX will see .5 to 1 inch of rain today. Models are also getting close to ending as snow late this evening over NE TX witht the SREF actually dropping some. The SREF also shows a small chance for heavy snow. Overall it looks like upper level moisture will leave before the surface gets cold enough for snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

I already have had .5" of rain and some hail. Holding out for the 5" snow plume from 03Z SREF.

[dhweather]

So all the sudden I'm seeing widespread rain forecast tomorrow... anyone else see it?

Steve McCauley's radar is impressive for what's happened on the rain front this month:

There's no red over my house, RADAR BUST.

Really need some rain, I'm going to have to add water to the pool this weekend if it doesn't.

[dhweather]

yawn...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_41.png

Now you're talking! That's my kind of winter. Unfortunately, winter will likely return in February.

Hey now, lets give the GFS some love, it had upper 60's for DFW on Jan 30 last week at 384 hour out.

[Ntxw]

Surprisingly if DFW gets a little over an inch of rain, we will be normal for Jan! Our second driest month

[weatherdude1108]

So all the sudden I'm seeing widespread rain forecast tomorrow... anyone else see it?

Steve McCauley's radar is impressive for what's happened on the rain front this month:

http://i63.tinypic.com/2lnk2g1.jpg

No widespread rain for Austin...

I had spray mist/drizzle/fog on the way into work. Enough to slicken the roads and scatter the pollen grains on car to create new spots.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Impressive storm system will intensify today and track eastward across the southern plains and then become a major blizzard for the US east coast this weekend.

Main change from yesterday it to bring a slight chance of severe thunderstorms into Chambers, Liberty, and San Jacinto Counties for this afternoon. Surface warm front moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico this morning with extensive fog and low visibilities along and north of this boundary. Water vapor loop shows impressive short wave tracking through NW TX and already development of strong to severe thunderstorms over both southern OK and E TX/W LA in favorable regions of forced ascent. Strong forcing will lead to rapid surface low pressure development today over E TX into the mid south and this will intensify wind fields over the region. While parameters are looking better than yesterday for a few severe storms today over the eastern sections of SE TX, the region will lie on the western edge of a much more significant severe weather outbreak aimed at the southern US tonight into Friday. Think our eastern counties are borderline with the threat…but cannot rule our large hail or a damaging wind gust for any areas that fall within the warm sector this afternoon.

Bigger story will likely be the onset of strong cold air advection and windy conditions by this evening as the surface low pressure deepens to our east dragging a cold Canadian air mass southward into the region. Front should cross the area late this afternoon with rapidly falling temperatures and strong NW winds. Area-wide wind advisory will be in effect tonight with gusts of 30-35mph frequent and 40-45mph possible. Temperatures falling into the 30’s and 40’s will result in wind chills into the 20’s for nearly all areas by Friday morning.

This same system will track ENE and deepen even further off the US mid-Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday with a major blizzard expected to impact the Washington and Baltimore areas. This event could be within the top 10 biggest snow storms for Washington deepening on exactly where the meso scale banding establishes. Large scale significant impacts to travel are likely from Friday morning through the entire weekend for much of the nation east of the Mississippi River.

Cold air will funnel southward on the backside of the US east coast blizzard with cold high pressure building overhead late Friday into early Saturday. Clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints continue to point toward at least a light freeze over much of the area Saturday morning.

[Portastorm]

I guess this goes without saying ... but I'll say it anyhow: this so-called winter has been awful. Terrible. Worthless. Outside of the severe weather episode between Christmas and New Years ... there has been nothing to speak of. El Nino shut off its spigot around that time and since them we've had nothing but seasonal temps to maybe slightly below. No moisture return. Fog but no rain. What a lousy excuse for a "winter."

I'm getting to see wxman57's side of things ... if it's not going to sleet or snow and this is all we get, bring on warmer temps and spring. Seriously. We haven't even had a good freeze here which we really need for many plants and fruit-bearing trees to renew for spring. And there are no signs in the models (operational or ensembles) that I can see of anything really changing much. I don't want to get into a climate change debate but since it's been 12 years since Austin has seen any measurable (1" or more) snow, I have to wonder if this is simply the new norm. Mild winters ... maybe a freezing drizzle episode here or there and that's it. Could be.

[Ntxw]

I concur Portastorm its been awful. DFW has yet to dip below 25. I was afraid of the strong Nino's of the past but told myself these professionals all pointed to the NPac warm pool so I kept being optimistic. It's done little.

Meanwhile its 43 outside and raining. Miserable.

[gboudx]

There's no red over my house, RADAR BUST.

Really need some rain, I'm going to have to add water to the pool this weekend if it doesn't.

Heh, check again.